James Burleigh
Well-known member
During my flight to Dallas this afternoon for a business trip, I brought along a hard copy of the June 2006 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s report, Recent Trends in Motorcycle Crashes: An Update. (DOT HS 810 606) During the last year for which data was available, and therefore the last year reported in the study (2004), a total of 4,008 motorcyclists died in accidents across the United States.
To pass the time on the three-hour flight from SFO, and to try to understand the results in a more compelling way, I calculated what the results for 2004 would look like for a single week.
If we presume for a moment that 2007 will play out exactly as 2004 did, then 77 riders will die this week in the United States. What do we know about them based on the NHTSA results?
Here’s the stark reality (and to see why the reality is in fact worse, see my closing comment below):
Keep the rubber side down….
Jb
[SIZE=10pt]Caveats: Statistical statements are all “on average.” Some values may not sum owing to rounding errors or lack of complete data for the specific variable—i.e., instances of “variable = unknown.”[/SIZE]
To pass the time on the three-hour flight from SFO, and to try to understand the results in a more compelling way, I calculated what the results for 2004 would look like for a single week.
If we presume for a moment that 2007 will play out exactly as 2004 did, then 77 riders will die this week in the United States. What do we know about them based on the NHTSA results?
Here’s the stark reality (and to see why the reality is in fact worse, see my closing comment below):
- 69 will be men; 8 will be women.
- 71 will be operating the bike; 6 will be passengers.
- 5 will be under 20 years old; 20 will be between 20-29; 17 between 30-39; 19 between 40-49; 12 between 50-59; and 4 older than 60.
- 5 will be riding bikes under 500cc; 32 on bikes between 501-1000; 29 on bikes between 1001 and 1500; and 2 on bikes larger than 1500cc.
- 38 will die on rural roads; 39 on urban roads.
- 36 will die on a weekday; 41 on the weekend.
- 35 will be involved in single-vehicle accidents; 42 in multi-vehicle accidents.
- 35 will be not be wearing helmets; 42 will be. Of the 32 riders who will die in a state mandating the use of helmets, 5 will not be wearing a helmet; 27 will. Of the 45 riders who will die this week in states that do not require helmets, 30 will not be wearing helmets; 15 will.
- 69 will die on undivided roads; 8 will die on divided or one-way roads.
- 58 will be licensed; 19 unlicensed.
- 28 will have been speeding.
- 27 will have been drinking; of those 27 who had been drinking before they die this week, 22 will be drunk (0.08% BAC).
- Helmet usage.
- Men to women.
- How many will die on weekdays vs. weekends.
- How many will die on rural vs. urban roads.
- Fewer will be speeding.
- Fewer will have been drinking.
- More will be properly licensed.
- More will be older.
- More will be on larger (>1000cc) bikes.
Keep the rubber side down….
Jb
[SIZE=10pt]Caveats: Statistical statements are all “on average.” Some values may not sum owing to rounding errors or lack of complete data for the specific variable—i.e., instances of “variable = unknown.”[/SIZE]
