slo-ride
slo-ride
The weather man is calling for a 60% chance of rain today. Is that enough to keep me off my bike? Let's look at the facts:
(1) I have a rain suit.
(2) A 60% chance of rain = a 40% chance of sun.
(3) The weather man is correct only 1/2 the time so there's really only a 30% chance of rain.
(4) The rain is hit or miss (50%) so depending on where I am I might not even see the rain so the actual chances of me getting wet are 30% x 50% = 15%.
(5) I'll be moving fast and everyone knows that it is difficult to hit a moving target so the rain that falls may never touch me. Hit or miss again so my new, improved, actual chance of getting wet is 15% x 50% = 7.5%.
(6) So, for the 7.5% chance of me getting wet - I'll refer back to item #1.
Vrrrrrm Vrmmmm Vrmmmmmmm!
(1) I have a rain suit.
(2) A 60% chance of rain = a 40% chance of sun.
(3) The weather man is correct only 1/2 the time so there's really only a 30% chance of rain.
(4) The rain is hit or miss (50%) so depending on where I am I might not even see the rain so the actual chances of me getting wet are 30% x 50% = 15%.
(5) I'll be moving fast and everyone knows that it is difficult to hit a moving target so the rain that falls may never touch me. Hit or miss again so my new, improved, actual chance of getting wet is 15% x 50% = 7.5%.
(6) So, for the 7.5% chance of me getting wet - I'll refer back to item #1.
Vrrrrrm Vrmmmm Vrmmmmmmm!