77 Motorcyclists Will Die This Week in the U.S.

[James Burleigh]

During my flight to Dallas this afternoon for a business trip, I brought along a hard copy of the June 2006 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s report, Recent Trends in Motorcycle Crashes: An Update. (DOT HS 810 606) During the last year for which data was available, and therefore the last year reported in the study (2004), a total of 4,008 motorcyclists died in accidents across the United States.

To pass the time on the three-hour flight from SFO, and to try to understand the results in a more compelling way, I calculated what the results for 2004 would look like for a single week.

If we presume for a moment that 2007 will play out exactly as 2004 did, then 77 riders will die this week in the United States. What do we know about them based on the NHTSA results?

Here’s the stark reality (and to see why the reality is in fact worse, see my closing comment below):

• 69 will be men; 8 will be women.
• 71 will be operating the bike; 6 will be passengers.
• 5 will be under 20 years old; 20 will be between 20-29; 17 between 30-39; 19 between 40-49; 12 between 50-59; and 4 older than 60.
• 5 will be riding bikes under 500cc; 32 on bikes between 501-1000; 29 on bikes between 1001 and 1500; and 2 on bikes larger than 1500cc.
• 38 will die on rural roads; 39 on urban roads.
• 36 will die on a weekday; 41 on the weekend.
• 35 will be involved in single-vehicle accidents; 42 in multi-vehicle accidents.
• 35 will be not be wearing helmets; 42 will be. Of the 32 riders who will die in a state mandating the use of helmets, 5 will not be wearing a helmet; 27 will. Of the 45 riders who will die this week in states that do not require helmets, 30 will not be wearing helmets; 15 will.
• 69 will die on undivided roads; 8 will die on divided or one-way roads.
• 58 will be licensed; 19 unlicensed.
• 28 will have been speeding.
• 27 will have been drinking; of those 27 who had been drinking before they die this week, 22 will be drunk (0.08% BAC).

How are these 77 riders similar to the 43 who died one week 10 years ago? The two groups share the same proportion of:

• Helmet usage.
• Men to women.
• How many will die on weekdays vs. weekends.
• How many will die on rural vs. urban roads.

How are these 77 riders different from the 43 who died one week 10 years ago? Of this year’s 77:

• Fewer will be speeding.
• Fewer will have been drinking.
• More will be properly licensed.
• More will be older.
• More will be on larger (>1000cc) bikes.

So why is the stark reality even worse? The data cited above is for 2004. The report (published June 2006) projected a 7.7% increase in fatalities for 2005—83 fatalities. As far as I know, the trend of rider fatalities is still increasing each year. So here we are now in the third year after the last study year of 2004. I don’t know what the facts are, but if we are experiencing 7.7% fatality growth each year, that means 96 riders will die this week.
Keep the rubber side down….

Jb

[SIZE=10pt]Caveats: Statistical statements are all “on average.” Some values may not sum owing to rounding errors or lack of complete data for the specific variable—i.e., instances of “variable = unknown.”[/SIZE]

 

[feejer222]

An interesting figure would be how many motorcyclists there are in th country. This would perhaps put it into perspective and make it possible to work out what the odds are.

 

[jeremybhm]

I'm reading "More Proficient Motorcycling" and just finished his chapter on motorcycle death stats. He made the assertion that motorcycle sales were increasing at a greater rate than the death rate, so that meant that per 100,000 registered motorcycles, the death rate was still getting better. He also said that anytime motorcycle sales increase, and more 'new' riders hit the roads, that death's will temporarily increase as natural selection takes place.

While you might be able to argue dumb luck may get you into or out of an accident, I can promise you I'll do everything I can not to become one of those statistics, especially with one of my kids or my wife as pillion (hence the reading of the book). I also want to take the MSF ERC course as soon as I can.

Working on keeping the rubber down...

 

[Fencer]

I also want to take the MSF ERC course as soon as I can.

I can help you with that info if you need it

What I take away from the stats are mostly 48%-52% numbers that don't really seem to matter much local, CC's etc. If time is up its up

 

[kaitsdad]

JB,

Those are some very interesting stats.

Jeremybrm, The increase in bike sales would explain the increase in fatalities to some degree, and is obviously a contributing factor. I.E., more bikes, more new riders, more deaths. Basic logic.

There is one metric I have not seen discussed or analyzed on this forum or elsewhere - and that would be the contributory effect of the increased ownership of cell phones over the same time period. More cell phones, more distracted drivers, more deaths.

Has anyone out there done a trend analysis showing:

Motorcycle ownership numbers.

Motorcycle fatality numbers.

Cell Phone ownership numbers.

Trending these three metrics over the same 10 year period might be revealing.

Just curious. Might be an interesting study - or it might mean nothing at all.

Hal

 

[jeremybhm]

I can help you with that info if you need it

I've managed to find this site:

https://www.montevallo.edu/atsc/Motorcycle/...seschedule.shtm

Looks like the May 5 or 12 course will work best for me...

 

[Toecutter]

And as one door closes....

I pride myself as being a pretty good driver. Kinda like the Terminator and killing. The secret, I maintain, is being in the moment and completely focused on the task at hand. That, along with 30 years of experience, 24 of which I have spent also driving a fire engine, base the argument for my qualifications. The transition to a motorcycle was like a duck taking to water. Once I became comfortable in my new boundaries, it was on!

I scare some people that ride with me. Hell, I'd scare me if I rode with me. It's a control thing. I've never gotten anybody injured (knock wood). I'm scared when I'm a passenger in just about any other person's vehicle. I'd probably be terrified if I took a lap in a rally car with a pro driver. Doesn't mean I'd be in danger. But I digress....

I came to a stark realization the other day. A very large portion of other drivers, pretty conservatively estimable at around 75%, aren't doing the "being in the moment and completely focused on the task at hand" thing. I'd go so far as to say that more than half of the other drivers out there are doing it as a necessary evil and secondary activity, unless they are just taxed to their limits by maintaining their speed and staying in their lane. Don't rely on them to do anything extraordinary for your own safety. They will kill you, and then feel bad for a while.

Back to the aforementioned realization. The above paragraph probably applies in some kind of proportion to motorcycle riders. There are a certain number of them who should seriously consider alternate means of transportation. The licensing requirements are only marginally more stringent than to get into a four-wheeled vehicle. I didn't even have to demonstrate my ability to control my own motorcycle when I registered it, even though it was three times as heavy with about six times the horsepower of the bike I passed the MSF class on the day after I first touched it.

In other words, just because you ride a motorcycle doesn't mean you know how.

New rule - Every Friday, count your blessings if you're not one of the 77 who laid it down that week. Maybe we need a wall....

 

[gypsy]

While it is a shame when any rider (or anyone) dies there is one thing for sure, none of us are getting out of this life alive. We know there are risks inherent in our choice to ride. We can do some things to limit them but they are always there. Likewise we can do things to limit other risks of death but many of us do not. I was looking up the chances of dying in the US (because those are the stats I found) and your chance of dying from a fall is still 5 times greater than a motorcycle accident. Most of us over emphasize the risk of certain events. I am as likely too as anyone. I fly a lot and I know the chances of me dying in a plane crash are fairly small but it still crosses my mind every time we head down the runway. I think knowing the facts helps though. There is an excellent book called:

Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities by Jeffrey S. Rosenthal if anyone is interested check out Amazon.

gypsy

 

[Orient_Express]

I've been at this motorcycle thing for around 40 years - with one accident - not my fault, but that doesn't matter when you go up against something with 4 wheels. Your fault or not - if you're dead.. you're dead.

As gypsy said, there is an inherent danger we all must recognize and accept to ride a motorcycle.

I would think that the sheer volume of new riders in recent years has fueled the stats somewhat, but still a very interesting study.

Thanks for the information.

 

[keithaba]

I'd like to know a breakdown of how many were in a city vs rural area.

After my last little "incident," my fiance said "I'm really glad your o.k., but if you die riding, I'll know you died doing something you love, and I accept that."

 

[motorgod]

One stat that could be most telling is: How many years of riding experience breakdown. I'm sure with the increase of sales is also an increase of new riders. Its a good study but also remember that you can make stats look anyway you want them. My bigger question is, were they out of FHM, Maxim, Stuff magazines?

 

[drewvanracer]

I just finished Pat Hahn’s How To Ride a Motorcycle. I live by his mindset.

1. You are responsible for everything that happens on the road.

2. All other driver are trying to kill you!

3. The road is designed to make you crash.

4. There are two kinds of riders: Those who’ve crashed and those who will.

He goes on to explain that each of these statements “is a load of hooey. Or is it?

Look at it from the perspective of attitude, and it takes on a whole new life.”

 

[exskibum]

And as one door closes....
I pride myself as being a pretty good driver. Kinda like the Terminator and killing. The secret, I maintain, is being in the moment and completely focused on the task at hand. That, along with 30 years of experience, 24 of which I have spent also driving a fire engine, base the argument for my qualifications. The transition to a motorcycle was like a duck taking to water. Once I became comfortable in my new boundaries, it was on!

I scare some people that ride with me. Hell, I'd scare me if I rode with me. It's a control thing. I've never gotten anybody injured (knock wood). I'm scared when I'm a passenger in just about any other person's vehicle. I'd probably be terrified if I took a lap in a rally car with a pro driver. Doesn't mean I'd be in danger. But I digress....

I came to a stark realization the other day. A very large portion of other drivers, pretty conservatively estimable at around 75%, aren't doing the "being in the moment and completely focused on the task at hand" thing. I'd go so far as to say that more than half of the other drivers out there are doing it as a necessary evil and secondary activity, unless they are just taxed to their limits by maintaining their speed and staying in their lane. Don't rely on them to do anything extraordinary for your own safety. They will kill you, and then feel bad for a while.

Back to the aforementioned realization. The above paragraph probably applies in some kind of proportion to motorcycle riders. There are a certain number of them who should seriously consider alternate means of transportation. The licensing requirements are only marginally more stringent than to get into a four-wheeled vehicle. I didn't even have to demonstrate my ability to control my own motorcycle when I registered it, even though it was three times as heavy with about six times the horsepower of the bike I passed the MSF class on the day after I first touched it.

In other words, just because you ride a motorcycle doesn't mean you know how.

New rule - Every Friday, count your blessings if you're not one of the 77 who laid it down that week. Maybe we need a wall....

+100

Well said, TC.

 

[James Burleigh]

A lot of good observations made. One thing that occurred to me, thinking again about what these statistics mean, is that-- Today 11 motorcyclists were killed.

A couple of things that strike me about the statistics also, is that almost half of the people who will die this week will not be wearing a helmet(!). More than a third will have been drinking when they have their accident. And more than 1 in 4 of them will be drunk!

I'm guessing there is overlap between the drinkers and helmetless riders. But I take comfort in knowing that those are a couple of risky behaviors I do not indulge in.

But I never want to be glib about this sort of thing because as we all know, you can manage the risk (wear a helmet; don't drink), but you can't eliminate it. How many of the 77 who will die this week are EXACTLY like you and me in terms of our riding rules and style?

Jb

 

[Fencer]

I'd like to know a breakdown of how many were in a city vs rural area.

38 will die on rural roads; 39 on urban roads

I can help you with that info if you need it

I've managed to find this site:

https://www.montevallo.edu/atsc/Motorcycle/...seschedule.shtm

Looks like the May 5 or 12 course will work best for me...

My neighbor is the Secretary that sets this up, but you found the info.

Suggestion, Do it earlier as it is a wide open, asphalt parkinglot that will get VERY HOT. And you won't get fast enough to cool yourself off (some short 30 mph bursts). Don't ask how I know.

 

[drew231506]

Like others have stated...the numbers of motorcyclists has probably grown exponentially in the past few years. If its above 60 degrees outside, there are more motorcycles on the road than cars, especially on the weekend. I can’t wave to them anymore…or I’ll be one of those stats you speak of.

Another observation that you mentioned was those who choose not to wear helmets. I never really noticed it living in the dc area, but i recently went and visited a buddy in Florida. I could not believe my eyes. I saw ONE motorcyclist wearing a helmet...out of probably 100 i saw that weekend. Flip flop, tank top, bandanas...and that’s it. I could not believe it.

 

[James]

I find statistics like this interesting, and can make some choices based on them, but there are so many things they don't say. Of the accidents that involved other vehicle's, how many were the riders fault? Of the single bike accidents, how many involved other vehicle's that were avoided and left the area? Of the riders that weren't wearing helmets, how many did it make a difference? I agree all drivers need to treat their drive/ride as the one thing that needs their concentration while on the road, but many don't. Hell, I've seen a guy on a bike on a cell (hand held). When a biker dies in my area the paper always reports weather or not they were wearing a helmet (not required in KS), but did not mention those occasions where the cause of death was a guard rail through the chest, or a semi driving over the rider at a stop light & stopping on him. So, I play the odds, pay attention, but know I'll still die sometime. That's just how it works. I do many things that can be dangerous, both at work & home, but try to have enough information to make intelligent decisions about how, when, where or even weather to engage in them at that time. But, like everyone else, once in a while I'm not paying attention. Hopefully, it won't kill me, but it just might, one of these days. Of course, Cynthia has been digging a hole in the back yard for a while, for no apparent reason, & I'm sure there's nothing to worry about...

James

 

[mdisher]

(Note: I'm not picking on you James)

I find statistics like this interesting, and can make some choices based on them, but there are so many things they don't say. Of the accidents that involved other vehicle's, how many were the riders fault?

Does it really matter? Accidents do happen, both ways, fault or not there are still 'accidents'.

When a rider hits a deer, and dies as a result, is it the deers fault? Maybe, maybe not. Shit happens. (I know there are neglegent accidents out there, where someone's clearly at fault and does something stupid, but I like to believe that's the exception to the rule)

Of the single bike accidents, how many involved other vehicle's that were avoided and left the area?

Same thing, really... Does it matter? It sucks when you don't cause your own accident, when someone just blindly hits you at a light from behind, but those risks are the same whether you're in a car, on a bicycle, or just in a walking in cross-walk.
I believe you can be killed just as easily in your car by anything bigger that drifts over the center line at the right time.

Of the riders that weren't wearing helmets, how many did it make a difference?

Since these are all deaths, I'd say it didn't make a difference in these cases, it would be injury stats that would be more helpful.

I agree all drivers need to treat their drive/ride as the one thing that needs their concentration while on the road, but many don't. Hell, I've seen a guy on a bike on a cell (hand held). When a biker dies in my area the paper always reports weather or not they were wearing a helmet (not required in KS), but did not mention those occasions where the cause of death was a guard rail through the chest, or a semi driving over the rider at a stop light & stopping on him. So, I play the odds, pay attention, but know I'll still die sometime. That's just how it works. I do many things that can be dangerous, both at work & home, but try to have enough information to make intelligent decisions about how, when, where or even weather to engage in them at that time. But, like everyone else, once in a while I'm not paying attention. Hopefully, it won't kill me, but it just might, one of these days. Of course, Cynthia has been digging a hole in the back yard for a while, for no apparent reason, & I'm sure there's nothing to worry about...James

Yes, that's just how it works. You rolls the dice and you takes your chances.

Obviously there are lots of things we can do to reduce the risks, hell we could just stay home for that matter. This is dangerous business. :/ fun but at times very dangrous.

 

[Rickster]

Interesting to also note that e[SIZE=10pt]ach year (worldwide) there are ~ 150 deaths caused by falling coconuts.[/SIZE]

You just never know when your number will be up.