Bad News For The Industry???

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PapaUtah

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HD downgraded to SELL by the street…is it time to put a new dress on the pig??? A smattering of comments on the street regarding America’s iron icon of the motorcycle industry…

“…HDI does not introduce enough new product that are materially different from previous offerings. Indeed, at this year’s annual dealer meeting, the company’s most often highlighted feature was… a new radio.”

…HDI could benefit from updated features and new bike designs (even a new family) but we do not believe that a new radio will capture many new customers…”

“…demand for Harley’s has slowed due to industry maturation and saturation of Harley’s target customer group.”

“…purchase of a Harley is a nostalgia purchase, and HDI has enjoyed less success generating new, younger customers.”

“…median age of the Harley buyer is 49 years old…number of baby boomers experiencing a mid-life crisis is peaking...”

“HDI not successful expanding internationally. The percentage of bikes sold abroad fell from 31.5% in 1991 to 18%...”

“Is HDI more concerned with its shareholders than with its customers?’

“…new bikes currently sell for MSRP at most… Worse yet are the now more frequent promotions, such as recent $1,000-2,000 discounts on 2005 models in several dealerships across the U.S. in order to make room for the 2006 bikes…”

“…while used bike prices are declining.”

I hope it isn’t catchy across the industry…could mean less innovation from the other manufacturers as they all sit tight through a possible downswing in the industry. But Harley’s segment appears to be significantly different from the other manufacturers. But who knows, all the manufacturers could catch an economic cold.

:fool:

 
I don't think it's industry wide. I think it's specific to HDI. There have already been some threads here about it.

I made a couple bucks on HDI, then at the end of the '03 anniversary I dumped it all. And that's the direction I think it'll keep going.

The "new radio" is actually integrated with a navigation system.

I thought they were coming out with ABS, too?

Oh well, there are enough die hards that I don't think they'll fade away. But don't be surprised if a few riders jump ship and change to off shore brands. That would actually be GOOD for us, I think.

 
Don't forget about all of the competition for baby boomer bucks from the custom builders. These buyers would have previously bought from Harley and then, maybe, customized the bike. Now they can buy a custom that never was a Harley. Even the engines are made by others, although they probably pay some licensing fee to Harley.

 
Though these quotes don't look good for HD, this sort of "slump" should serve as a wake up for any other manufacturer who thinks that they can sit idle and hope to do well. Innovation is the key...especially in an industry where the product isn't a necessity. Let's face it, bikes are toys. (Really kickass toys, but still toys).

 
i really think the hd thing was a bubble that just poped . its my take is the guys are not putting down between 13 and 22 k to have the bike sit in there garage and collect dust . i am in the n.y. area . just check the bike ads 2004 hd 600 miles , 2003 hd 500 miles it goes on and on now that there value is going down you will not get the guy who says well i can always get my money back and i might even make some cash . my buddy purchased a 2003 special edition low boy after crying for 10 years that he wants a bike . guess what 2100 miles on the bike . 700 miles a yearand evey excuse not to go riding i dont even ask him anymore . oh yea i was going to purchase a 2005 road glide. but pick up a blue 1300

 
A guy I work with has his 2001 HD up for sale for $20K. It has 7,500 miles and $35K invested. I have the same mileage on my '05, so it I would come out about the same as him if I just dropped my bike in the dumpster and walked away. :rolleyes:

 
This reminds me of a discussion I had with another friend who is into motorcycles a few years ago over lunch. This was at a time when dealers will still charging MSRP or even more.

We came to the conclusion that if you ever had an interest in owning a Harley Davidson just wait 10-15 years. All the boomers who bought them thinking they were "bikers" and doing the whole image thing will have tired of the bikes and there will be a sh$tload of used hardleys with low miles on them in the classifieds. You should be able to swing in and buy one (or more) dirt cheap. And the great thing is since harley has been building the same basic bike for the past 25 years it should be easy to get any parts you might need.

- Colin

 
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I was a Harley guy for years ,, but I got tired of the same old thing year after year ,, and the posers that came from the media surge of OCC and WCC

I in fact had looked at the FJR 3 years ago ,, but could not get one ,, I walked into the dealer which I got my FEEJER after leaving a HD dealership because of the frustration of dealing with those guys in there sales force ,, they made me feel like I was being done a favor by selling me a bike ,, so I went down the street to the Yamaha dealer looking to buy a Warrior when I saw the FJR for sale ,,

I am now waiting for the delivery of the Roadliner ,, great style,, tech advances ,,(a newly designed 113 incher with 101 hp and 125 lbs of torque) that a Harley just cannot match ,, for a price that is well below the Holy Grail of the Harley,,

the Stratoliner kicks the crap out of any Roadking ,, in style and useable power ,,

I for one belive that the mertic cruiser has taken it's bite out of the Harley golden apple ,, less money to buy and maintain ,, more reliable on the road ,, and now more power and better looking ,,

I have put the money down and am waiting for the delivery of my Roadliner S ,,

 
I think HD is just experiencing 'an adjustment'. The old 'Sports Illustrated Syndrome', if you will, in which a professional athlete makes the cover of SI, and a relatively short time later their performance takes a dip, goes into a slump, whatever.. simply due to the fact that said athlete cannot stay 'at the top' indefinitely. There are a finite amount of customers in their target market. As others already pointed out, some (middle aged crowd) go out and purchase a Harley as a first bike for the 'Harley Mystique' (whatever the hell that is) and discover riding a motorcycle is not for them; then the bike sits and rots.

Then there are what I call the 'real rider' potential customers, who are already experienced bikers that maybe are finally looking at a Harley as a second bike, bike for the wife, etc. I put myself in that group, thinking I might consider a Sportster for my wife as a first bike for her...until the dealer wanted close to $1000. over the list price just because he can get it. Screw that, they'll never get my money. Oh, almost forgot, then the dealer kept calling me week after week- what a mistake that was..

The ironic part is that HD could stop selling bikes tomorrow and still do their billion/yr sales worldwide just selling apparel!

 
Since when has it been about the bikes at HD? The bikes are irrelevant - they're selling image now, not bikes. They probably have more profit dollars from t-shirts, jackets, trinkets and what not than all 4 Jap makers combined profit from motorcycles.

And with the price of gas getting so high, who wants to spend all that money to trailer a bike to Sturgis anyway? It would be so much easier to meet at the local saloon and take a charter bus to Sturgis, then parade around in clean new leathers, go to the ***** bar, get drunk, etc. and then just take the charter bus back home with your friends and a keg of beer. Motorcycles? Who needs 'em? They never really rode them anyway........ :D

 
I think the problem stems from Hardlies long standing policy of IQ testing, The Dealers are strictly forbidden selling a bike to anyone who's IQ is higher than their age...

 
go to the ***** bar, get drunk, etc.
Hold on there. Never discount the value of the tittie bar. ;)

The number of accidents, and deaths, involving motorcycles has been increasing in my county over the past few years. That stuff gets into the newspapers and makes it a little harder for the potential Harley buyer to convince himself and his wife that he needs a Harley to ride from bar to bar on Saturday night.

 
I've been pointing out the increasing age of HD's customer over on the Roadstar forum as to why the Roadie is doomed and Yamaha is going with the Roadliner. Cruisers will always be around but it isn't an expanding market. The guys in their 20's bought sportbikes and like to go fast - as they age they can't pull the trigger to straddle something with only 58 HP and handles like a tank. That's why Honda has the VTX, Kaw the 2000, Triumph the 2200 - Yamaha's Liner series is appealing to that market. My personal opinion is the Sport Touring market is where those guys will end up. HD tried to get that target market with the VRod - Yamaha with the Warrior - both failed. That's why I'm selling my Warrior and have an 06 FJR on order. Once I get it I'll decide if I'll keep my Roadie - there is just something about that big Vtwin that I love!

 
Woodstock,,

yes ,, the radio makes it go faster

songs like Hot Rod Lincoln are run throught the modulator and come out digitized then fed into the quantum leap generator ,, and used to infuse the Dylythum Crystals to produce a vortex in the wind ,so the bike rolls faster ,, listening to Disco will have the reverse effect :D tunning to , for example ;

Play that Funky Music White Boy ,,

will apply the breaks and take your dentures out n clean them

 
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