Change underfoot in US motorcycle industry...

[PapaUtah]

Well, here it is…some of the recent news on the industry giant…perhaps a diet is in the future for The Motor Company™???

“Harley-Davidson™ US retail registrations increased 5.8% in the quarter(industry up almost 7%), disappointing given easy comp, weather, and promotions.”

Translation: Harley-Davidson™ has moved from leading the industry in growth to trailing…something is changing in the marketplace…but what? Perhaps a “fashion” change?

“…not bullish on Harley-Davidson’s™ strategy to keep increasing shipments/inventory in the U.S. with very poor sell-thru…”

translation: Analysts are wondering why Harley-Davidson™ is increasing the number of items on the floor that are not selling…

“…Sportster™ shipments were down (6.8%) again in quarter (as were in 4Q05). Continued decline in entry-level Sportster™ sales not a good signal for much needed market expansion.”

Translation: Harley-Davidson™ expects new Harley-Davidson™ owners to start out on Sportsters™…and they appear to be not buying Sportsters™…

“The Motor Company™ Gave 2Q shipment guidance of 78,000 which is about 1% y/y growth.”

Translation: Shipments in new Harley-Davidson™ motorcycles to dealers are slowing from their torrid 10+% growth rate in the past 5 years…

“Harley-Davidson™ plans to produce 91,000 bikes in 2Q, of which 13,000 will be 2007 models and not shipped until 2H06 (in addition to regular 3Q06 shipment).”

Translation: It appears they have enough ‘06s to satisfy ’06 demand already…so let’s starting calling the last 13,000 off the line ‘07s…not a good sign…IMHO…

“…not clear why The Motor Company™ is planning the 2007 model year production earlier this year than in past years.”

See comment above…

“Harley-Davidson™ will be "inundating" dealers with this 18% increase in bikes which will not benefit dealers given what appears to be already-higher-than-normal inventory levels.”

“The Motor Company™ has acknowledged increased dealer inventory, but still wants to add more.”

translation: In B-School this was referred to as channel stuffing…and was frowned upon…but there must be a reason…perhaps The Motor Company™ is planning on a “Keep Willy G. Rolling in Cash!” type promotion in 2007? Or more likely the "fad" maybe in the early stages of winding down. If that is true there will be alot of cash chasing the new "style".

 

[Toecutter]

Call me un-American, but I couldn't care less about any vehicles the U.S. industry produces (exception- the musclecars, but I wouldn't want to own one). All-Japanese stable here (3 Toyotas) If Toyota built motorcycles, I'd probably own one of those too.

What do we build that's superior to other countries at a competitive price? I guess computers would qualify....Oh yeah, and WMD's

Certainly not beer, IMHO. Even the urine-enhanced stuff from Mexico tastes better than the big two from here (it's not the water).

Real race cars turn both directions. <end tangent>

 

[C&C]

I think that the H/D market is just reaching saturation as the have-to-have bike (perhaps past peak). It has been a very good run for H/D and I don't think it's quite over yet either. I can lay some blame on the dealers (I'm all sure that you're aware of price padding and accessory loading that quite a few H/D dealers are doing with a take it or leave it attitide.) Perhaps the market is readjusting or normalizing for a better term and prices for H/D product will reflect this. One of the reasons I went to the FJR was that my H/D dealer was preparing to try to tear me a new one for the lack of a better term, and I took my business elsewhere. Back in 2003 (2004 FJR owner) they could care less, as there was another buyer waiting in line, but this may change soon. H/D makes good stuff in my opinion and I've ridden a few of their models, at open houses, and liked what I rode and saw, but see above, as one of the reasons I didn't buy.

As far as cars goes, the U.S. automakers are making very competitive product; some superior IMO. Buy what you want; that the way you vote with your dollars.

 

[PapaUtah]

C&C,

You may hit the nail right on the head...

Harley-Davidson™ presented at an investor conference today (Monday, 06/05/06). The following nuggets were gleaned from the presentation…

Harley-Davidson™ IS cutting short '06 model production (perhaps there is too much dealer inventory???), to “accelerate 2007 model shipments” described as "more exciting than last year!"

The assumption is Harley-Davidson™ will not have as much “old” (ie. 2006) inventory to clear out over the fall and winter seasons.

2007 inventory will get into dealer showrooms “faster than usual”, and there will be more of it during the summer. There was no discussion of dealer inventories (a growing concern).

Sure sounds like the market is saturated and they are not sure what their next step should be. Accelerating the model year sounds like a ploy to pull in the “I got to have the latest thing” kind of buyers. This could put even more downward pressure on used Harley-Davidson™ prices, not something a Harley-Davidson™ buyer wants to see.

It is going to be real interesting to see the quarter data from the other manufacturers. It could be the entire cruiser segment is winding down. That would be bad for the Star bikes, Suzuki’s Boulevards, etc. The MMC data was showing a distinct slowing in the cruiser market already last year with “sportbikes” showing the highest growth rates.

 

[throttlejockeyTJ]

Big three Auto DOWN (2 Bankrupt?)

New Housing DOWN

Houses Selling DOWN

New Jobs NON EXISTANT

It ain't like a new MC in these economic times is the alsolute must for a 'family'.

The whole economy is DOWN, and HD isn't immune! TJ

 

[painman]

Alot of this is reflected in the economy and what the good ol dollar can buy. Seems like it all starts with gas prices and trickles on down. In short, people are not spending as usual. The press says things are going good but the average wages just don't line up with the cost of living. Thus, bike sales are down some but still not bad and probablly the only reason for the still good numbers sold for HD would be that some have decided to purchase a bike because of gas prices. But that too will hit a saturation point. A vicious cycle and where will it end? PM. <><

 

[Groo]

The whole economy is DOWN, and HD isn't immune!

Are you guys on crack? The economy has been booming for over a year... the jobless rate is miniscule... pick up a newspaper other than the NY Times once in a while... try the Wall Street Journal...

 

[panthercity]

 

[Thug]

Call me un-American, but I couldn't care less about any vehicles the U.S. industry produces (exception- the musclecars, but I wouldn't want to own one). All-Japanese stable here (3 Toyotas) If Toyota built motorcycles, I'd probably own one of those too.
What do we build that's superior to other countries at a competitive price? I guess computers would qualify....Oh yeah, and WMD's

Certainly not beer, IMHO. Even the urine-enhanced stuff from Mexico tastes better than the big two from here (it's not the water).

Real race cars turn both directions. <end tangent>

Toe most refreshing to hear some reality check talk from one of "their" own. Your bang on with your comments especially about the beer! GET ANOTHER ONE IN YA!!!

Cheers

 

[Scab]

I don't know squat, but I'd like to see the whole motorcycle industry head in the direction of even more variety. Harley and the rest of 'em. We have cruisers, sports, and 2-wheel la-z-boys, with very little in between. We're starting to see a little bit with adventure bikes, super-moto's and the such, but I want more. I don't know what, but more and different.

I think that one thing that would help is fuel efficiency. For pete's sake, you can buy a toyota that gets better mileage than the average bike now. I know, mileage is sacrificed for performance. But what about more practical bikes to atract the frugal and practical buyers? What about bikes that can be purchased to SAVE money? I just really can't reconcile in my head why a 500 lb. motorcycle gets 38-42 mpg, while a Civic gets 38 - with cargo and 3 of your friends. (and has enough performance to still be fun)

But what the heck do I know. I just checked my email and phone messages - NONE of the manufacturers asked me.

 

[Groo]

I think that one thing that would help is fuel efficiency. For pete's sake, you can buy a toyota that gets better mileage than the average bike now. I know, mileage is sacrificed for performance. But what about more practical bikes to atract the frugal and practical buyers? What about bikes that can be purchased to SAVE money?

I think this is what you're looking for... friend here at work bought one and sold his truck... got him a great price from Tony O....

 

[Scab]

Hell, I tried to get my wife to get one of those (she wants a motorcycle of her own now). She wouldn't go for it. I guess there's a little "poser" in all of us.

Okay, you busted me. I'm just talkin' smack. I guess they'll never make a FJR for the price of a gocart with the mpg of a moped. ****. Poverty sucks ***.

I wish I had been born rich instead of so damn good-looking.

****! Just looked in the mirror. I got screwed twice!

 

[charismaticmegafauna]

Scab, it's not your fault (well, maybe just a little?). Everytime the the industry's offered a bike that wasn't a full-boat tourer, cruiser, race bike w/lights, or dirt-racer it's pretty much bombed. The Yamaha Vision, Honda Hawk GT are two classic examples (and there are many more). The American consumer is so poorly educated that they need to know what a bike is for or they can't figure out what to do with it (why to buy it).

You're right, the industry should offer more diversity -- they just get burnt (historically) just about everytime they try it in America. Hell, we probably wouldn't have FJRs if it hadn't been for a letter writing campaign and the PDP. Last week I was visiting a Yammy dealer and talking with the salesguy. I asked about AEs -- any ordered? -- shop getting one? etc. The salesguy said no to both -- said the owner didn't like them. So much for the industry being able to affect any change.....

 

[odot]

I'll bet the owner rides a harley. lololololol

 

[RadioHowie]

The whole economy is DOWN, and HD isn't immune!

Are you guys on crack? The economy has been booming for over a year... the jobless rate is miniscule... pick up a newspaper other than the NY Times once in a while... try the Wall Street Journal...

Thank God...an intelligent reply.

 

[Ramblin Man]

Miller Ice House. Put one in the freezer so it's just short of icing up when you crack it open. Thats good beer. Also Little Kings in the 7 ounce bottles. Also give it the freezer treatment. Its a cream ale and when its just at the right temperature it gets this carmel flavor and goes down like its being absorbed straight into your blood stream. Its good **** and brewed in Cincinnati.

As for HD, until they can make a product without the pose-itude, I won't even look. I just never understood why every bike they make must be a cruiser. I loved the XR based Cafe Racer they made, but I was in grade school at the time so getting one was not an option. I remember reading the test articles in the school library and not giving a damn that it handled like crap, It had that look that was NOT a cruiser look and I liked it. I had a little dirt bike and I was in the dreaming phase of my motorcycling career.

Now, HDs are like 22 inch rims on a chevy caprice. All bling and owned by people with real image issues.

Of course any of you HD owners want to give your's away I won't turn it down, but don't look for me at the dealership.

 

[painman]

As for HD, until they can make a product without the pose-itude, I won't even look. I just never understood why every bike they make must be a cruiser. I loved the XR based Cafe Racer they made, but I was in grade school at the time so getting one was not an option. I remember reading the test articles in the school library and not giving a damn that it handled like crap, It had that look that was NOT a cruiser look and I liked it. I had a little dirt bike and I was in the dreaming phase of my motorcycling career.
Now, HDs are like 22 inch rims on a chevy caprice. All bling and owned by people with real image issues.

Of course any of you HD owners want to give your's away I won't turn it down, but don't look for me at the dealership.

Ramblin Man you can go down now and look because Harley has been making bikes other than cruisers for quite some time and so has Buell. It might surprise you. Check them out at:

Buell Bikes

and....

V-Rods

Hope this helped. I personally like the V-Rod and the Street Rod. And Oh, don't sell your FJR whatever you do. PM. <><