FJRForum Official 2019 Iron Butt Rally Tracking/Analysis Thread

[Auburn]

rider (#1) is headed towards Tok ( I assume this is the first rider to Homer yesterday), they turned towards the Kennicott Mine
rider (#2) is heading back towards Anchorage from Homer (assume rider that did Whittier) turned toward turned toward Whittier,

rider (#3) is heading to Whittier/Homer/Seward (assume rider that did Kennicott mine).

rider (#4) in Dawson City appears to be taking a rest stop.

 

[Auburn]

Is anyone else wishing that the Spotwalla tags included "heading" info?
I understand hiding the "time" field as adding to the obfuscation, but it can be hard to know who's coming or going with so many tags, and so few updates!

The purposefully don't include that information because of issues in the past IBR with outside help making it's way to riders.

 

[Blind Squirrel]

new post up!!https://ibr.wvi.com/ibr/2019/2019IBR_SaturdayJune22_Day6.pdf

"Eric warned Chris the only thing the bike might need would be a battery…and the fork seals were weeping a bit. Chris was simply grateful for the opportunity to get a bike and stay in the rally. He told your scribe he would have taken a scooter. To get Eric’s rally prepped FJR was beyond awesome. Late report, the FJR did need a new battery, as it died on him on the way, but the Matt and Rusty show at the Kennewick hotel had one waiting on Chris when he arrived, well before the time window closed for the bonus. Late note, Matt pulled the battery from his own FJR to help Chris out."

Wow! Nice going Iggy!

 

[RenoJohn]

On the streets of Reno, Eric Buskell (COEB) started out at the rally at 7/1 odds and the money continues to flow his way, currently down to 5/1 odds and many think it will fall even further.
https://renojohn.com/bike/iba2019 (corrected typo)

The COEB is making the bookmakers nervous.

He's a cool kid and other cool kids around the country are cheering for him.
....this picture from downtown Reno Sunday evening ...but you can find it repeated all over the great USA in towns big and small.

The COEB has captured the imagination of our youth, as well as those who ride with physical and mental limitations. Kinda brings a tear your eyes when you think about it.

I had the pleasure of spending quality time with the COEB in Greenville the days before the start. My life will never be the same.

 

[dcarver]

On the streets of Reno, Eric Buskell (COEB) started out at the rally at 7/1 odds and the money continues to flow his way, currently down to 5/1 odds and many think it will fall even further.https://renojohn.com/iba2019

The COEB is making the bookmakers nervous.

He's a cool kid and other cool kids around the country are cheering for him.

....this picture from downtown Reno Sunday evening ...but you can find it repeated all over the great USA in towns big and small.

The COEB has captured the imagination of our youth, as well as those who ride with physical and mental limitations. Kinda brings a tear your eyes when you think about it.

I had the pleasure of spending quality time with the COEB in Greenville the days before the start. My life will never be the same.

Can't believe how big Grace is now! WOW...

 

[FJR Flyer]

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https://renojohn.com/iba2019

 

[RenoJohn]

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The requested URL /iba2019/ was not found on this server.

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https://renojohn.com/iba2019

sorry, fixed https://renojohn.com/bike/iba2019/

 

[Auburn]

rider (#1) is headed towards Tok ( I assume this is the first rider to Homer yesterday), they turned towards the Kennicott Mine
rider (#2) is heading back towards Anchorage from Homer (assume rider that did Whittier) turned toward turned toward Whittier,

rider (#3) is heading to Whittier/Homer/Seward (assume rider that did Kennicott mine).

rider (#4) in Dawson City appears to be taking a rest stop.

Rider 1 is headed toward Kennicott mine Valdez

Rider 2 is done with Whittier and head toward Anchorage

Rider 3 is headed to Homer

Rider 4 is on the move and head over the Top of the World Hwy to Chicken, and then TOK.

 

[Udjeni]

You might be assuming the Spotwalla tags are the same for each leg. Historically, the Spotwalla tags are re-randomized for each leg to help with the obfuscation of rider identities.

While the numbers of the tags do change often, I have not seen that the information associated with a specific tag has ever changed - i.e. the information displayed when you click on the tag. For example the 4 Alaskan riders have Spot devies with time zones indicating Denver, Indianapolis, New York and Chicago. So to augment AuburnFJR's list:

Rider 1 (New York) is headed toward Kennicott mine Valdez
Rider 2 (Denver) is done with Whittier and head toward Anchorage

Rider 3 (Indianapolis) is headed to Homer

Rider 4 (Chicago) is on the move and head over the Top of the World Hwy to Chicken, and then TOK.

 

[Ignacio]

Late note, Matt pulled the battery from his own FJR to help Chris out."

Wow! Nice going Iggy!

That was an easy one. Getting Purney able to flag down a motorist in Biggs, OR one last time to ride the last 100 miles to the CP was a bigger trick than us sending the battery to him. He succeeded....and the bike arrived with the panel already off to make the battery swap easier. My first time under Gen 2 panels....pretty similar to Gen 3 but not identical.

And it's not the only piece of one of my FJRs in IBR bikes. I've lost count, but over the years I've sold or given front windshield stays, Tupperware, windshields, and brake rotors on various riders' bikes.

So Purney has a 5 year old battery from my '14 (which isn't good....but better than Lipps 2010) and I also screwed up changing Messick's '14 rear wheel and destroyed his ABS bracket with horrible popping noises as we tried to get to 90 foot pounds. Then it hit me as I managed to get the shaft back out....I forgot the damn bushing! So it's now sporting my '14 bracket that I drove back over a second time after getting the battery.

Since the riders are now on their own and the oasis that was Kennewick is firmly in their rear view mirrors--I'll be looking up a replacement ABS part and ponder whether I should upgrade to a Shorai or not. Expect I'll do some forum searching to re familiarize myself with the prevailing opinions on FJR bits.

 

[HIGHLANDER]

They (bikes ) used to go first through the Whittier tunnel , till a parade of HD crashed in the tunnel and screwed traffic for hours till they cleaned it up, now bikes go last through.

 

[dudeckp]

"COEB"???
Crude Oil Equivalent Barrel

 

[HIGHLANDER]

You might be assuming the Spotwalla tags are the same for each leg. Historically, the Spotwalla tags are re-randomized for each leg to help with the obfuscation of rider identities.

While the numbers of the tags do change often, I have not seen that the information associated with a specific tag has ever changed - i.e. the information displayed when you click on the tag. For example the 4 Alaskan riders have Spot devies with time zones indicating Denver, Indianapolis, New York and Chicago. So to augment AuburnFJR's list:

Rider 1 (New York) is headed toward Kennicott mine Valdez

Rider 2 (Denver) is done with Whittier and head toward Anchorage

Rider 3 (Indianapolis) is headed to Homer

Rider 4 (Chicago) is on the move and head over the Top of the World Hwy to Chicken, and then TOK.

To also complicate things theres an Alaska rider thats not on the public Spotwalla page thats also riding around picking up lots in boni !

 

[Ignacio]

Something I'm going to throw out here as pure speculation and fodder for armchair entertainment:

There are these batch of rogue orange dots up in Alaska living the alternative rally lifestyle that are legendary for IBRs....far away from the big mass of orange dots. We get there's some Big Dogs™ in them and we all visually are drawn to them on the map because they are different. BUT, what if there are wolves in the mass of sheep now wandering the relative safety of I-90...same color orange as middle pack riders and those just wanting to finish with enough points?

What if this rally puzzle master has built his opus of a rally where some other Big Dogs™ have deliberately stayed south to hoover up points in more subtle ways? What if this rally has hidden in plain sight an Anti-Newfoundland 5 type of scenario? What if we find out in the end the winning route was because the winner of the rally didn't point their bike north only a couple hours after the 4 a.m. riders' meeting, but came from a batch of riders that fought every naturally instinct to get on their bike to ride , and had the discipline to sit in their hotel room on the clock for many more hours because they puzzled out a better plan?

I think the next few days are going to be very interesting in the 2019 Iron Butt Rally.

 

[puppychow]

Carry On Eric Buskell.

 

[Bill Lance]

"COEB"???Crude Oil Equivalent Barrel

Crazy One Eyed Biker.

Lost an eye three years ago this month.

Rides probably 75000-80000 miles a year on Road Glides. Very neat guy, and as laid back as they come.

7th after leg one, I, like many, are hoping for a top 5 for him.

 

[Colin24]

As I write this it is 14:30 EST on Monday. Riders have left the 2nd checkpoint around 6ish hours ago. And right now there are two parades of riders. One on I-90 the other on I-84. Just two lines of dots down two interstates. Just waiting to see when and by how much the riders begin to disperse.

And of course the Alaska riders. I'm with Iggy on this one. I won't assume the winner is in the Alaska Bunch. But nonetheless, WOW, what a ride! They've been in Alaska circling for a day and a half now and still haven't started heading for the barn yet. Which is only 90ish hours away. Wow....

- Colin

I really have to find something to do today other than looking at dots on a map and waiting for them to move

 

[heynowref]

What if we find out in the end the winning route was because the winner of the rally didn't point their bike north only a couple hours after the 4 a.m. riders' meeting, but came from a batch of riders that fought every naturally instinct to get on their bike to ride , and had the discipline to sit in their hotel room on the clock for many more hours because they puzzled out a better plan?

I forget where it came from (Warchild on FB??) but the info that Mr Owen was still in the barn at 9:30am or so after the meeting.

 

[Uncle Hud]

Ignacio posted more, but this is what I wanted to repeat:
... some other Big Dogs™ have deliberately stayed south to hoover up points in more subtle ways?

Yes, I'd like to vote for conservative routing. Although it's less exciting and adventurous than high-value Alaska bonii, there's some solid value in the higher travel speeds, availability of services, lighting at night, and alternate routes offered by major highways in the US and Canada. Sure, this year's bonus locations are located on "Roads Less Traveled", but Interstates and major highways connect to each of those "Roads Less Traveled".

The gamble is whether you can gather 10-12 mid-value bonii that can outscore the four or five high-value ones in Alaska, and whether a trip north leads to an exhausted rider, a broken bike, and a DNF.

It's the "Tin Cup" dilemma: do you lay up and take the easier approach, or do you take the big risk and go for it?

 

[Ignacio]

It's the "Tin Cup" dilemma: do you lay up and take the easier approach, or do you take the big risk and go for it?

I like that metaphor! That and a "see the glitch in the matrix that allows them to collect a bonus that appeared to be impossible" metaphor in another forum.

What's increasingly obvious to me is that while the rally draws liberally from the concepts of "old-school" IBRs--it seems manifest as a metaphor-in-waiting for rallies of the future.