So how close am I to an ignition failure?

[7xray]

As I am about ready to head to CFO with the '07 with 7,300 miles, I'm wondering what the odds are for having an ignition failure. I looked at the data in the ignition failure thread to see if I could see any trends.

Here is some information:

2003: 6 failures at an average mileage for failure of 58,700 miles

2004: 3 failure, average = 25,000

2005: 1 failure reported at 22,580.

Now,

2006: 46 failures at an average of 17,800 miles

2007: 17 failures at 11,500.

What are the trends?

Plotting the number of failures that occur in 5,000 mile blocks (e.g. for model year 2006, there were 8 failures in the 5K - 10K mileage block) shows:

Here is the cumulative totals for 2006 and 2007:

Looking at this I'd have to say that the failure of 2007 models is pretty well tracking the performance of the 2006 models in the 0 - 15K miles region. I'd expect that as more 2007s get into the 15,000 - 20,000 mile range the failures will look even more like the 2006s.

I didn't do any plotting of the Gen I data. I suspect those are failures due to dirty switches rather than some systematic failure as seen in the Gen IIs. Does anybody know if there was a change in the switch design for the Gen IIs compared to Gen I?

Pretty interesting thread, Barabus, and thanks for everybody contributing to it with their stories and fixes. I'm sure carrying wire nuts, a switch, and cutters.

Cheers,

7X

 

[okmac]

I ride an 07 and have 16K on it and no failures. I would say go and do not worry about it, it sounds like you are prepared just in case. I have cut the two cable ties that keep the wires overtight going into the switch. If you have not already done that you might want to.

Ride it and do not worry, why spoil a good vacation.

Mac

Happy riding.

 

[v65]

I'm wondering what the odds are for having an ignition failure.

To figure that out you will need to know how many '07's there are out there. Let's go with a lot, and assume that most everyone that has had a failure has reported it, then I would say your odds are low. Ride on

 

[Silent]

Ride on, my '07 has 28,000 and no failure yet, and mines a daily driver.

Edit: For statistical accuracy, you not only need to know how many have failed, you need to know how many haven't failed.

 

[kaitsdad]

Ride on, my '07 has 28,000 and no failure yet, and mines a daily driver.
Edit: For statistical accuracy, you not only need to know how many have failed, you need to know how many haven't failed.

That's correct, Silent. While 7xray's graphs show that as the mileage increases, so do the failures, there's no way of knowing what the chances are of a failure - just that as your miles increase, your chance of a failure increases.

I'm at 45K+ now, and no problems. However - I do carry a toggle switch and necessary components to deal with the situation.

 

[Foxhuntr]

25K on my 07 no problems.

 

[S76]

Nice charts but it's way easier than that.

Let's guess there ae 30K bikes out there in the country with various miles.

We see 73 failures but there are probably more unreported so say 100.

If there were 300 failures that would be 1%.

We got 73/100 so that is about a third of a percent failure rate.

You have less than the AMAF (average miles at failure) so your antcipated failure rate is ........................????????? less than that.

Plus the fact that you have the stuff to fix it so your POF (probability of failure) goes way down. Because you have what you may need you will never need it. Those rules of averaging are found on the Murphy graphs.

 

[v65]

Nice charts but it's way easier than that.
Let's guess there ae 30K bikes out there in the country with various miles.

We see 73 failures but there are probably more unreported so say 100.

If there were 300 failures that would be 1%.

We got 73/100 so that is about a third of a percent failure rate.

You have less than the AMAF (average miles at failure) so your antcipated failure rate is ........................????????? less than that.

Plus the fact that you have the stuff to fix it so your POF (probability of failure) goes way down. Because you have what you may need you will never need it. Those rules of averaging are found on the Murphy graphs.

Lots of words, same conclusion, small.

 

[JamesK]

Ride on, my '07 has 28,000 and no failure yet, and mines a daily driver.
Edit: For statistical accuracy, you not only need to know how many have failed, you need to know how many haven't failed.

Just clicked over 29k on my '07 and no ignition switch issues. The only thing i did was cut the zip tie and spray some WD40 inside to lube. Be that as it may i do have the pre-wired switch and other bits needed to hot wire the bike. Until it happens why worry, it's not like you'll miss the problem

 

[Barabus]

Would you mind cross posting these excel graphs in the Ignition Failure thread? Thanks.

 

[7xray]

Would you mind cross posting these excel graphs in the Ignition Failure thread? Thanks.

Sure, no problem.

 

[user 2024]

06 with 72,000 miles and no problem.

 

[timalan]

I have 26000 on my '07 and have Paralleled The switch with some hi current relays and a hidden micro switch.

Because I don't wanna be stranded. and I don't wanna have to hot wire on the fly.

I used these...



and One of these.



installed under here.



Paralled the wiring at the connector under the tank... Like this



And I placed my hidden Microswitch to turn it all on keyless here.... Yeah. I don't think so.

Now unless the wires pull out of the ignition and short out inside blowin up fuse. I can always start my bike.

Even if I loose my keys camping.... I almost always loose my keys camping. and waste an hour looking.

 

[Mike P]

Touching on this subject, the original owner of my bike installed a set of risers who's name I can't mention here BUT in the process he did cut the harness loose just below the tree. Since this part of the harness is no longer cinched up tight are my chances of failure greatly decresed considering most every failure I've read about has to do with wires being pulled out of the switch.