Analysis of California Motorcyclist Fatalities, 1995-2009

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James Burleigh

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My buddy who works in motorcycle safety sent me a pdf of this report published in August. Not sure it's available on the web. What's unique about this report is that they looked up VINs to get motorcycle-specific information.

The report includes sport-touring under Other Sport, described as:

"...a combination of Sport, Unclad Sport, and Sport Touring. Characteristics of riders and crashes [in this class] are somewhere between those of Super Sports and Cruisers and Touring bikes. Other Sport bikes made up almost 13% of registered motorcycles (2009) and also accounted for almost 12% of fatalities (2007-2009). [Riders are predominantly] Young (more than half are less than 35 years of age), and predominantly male (96.6%)."

As a result, I have focused on the "Touring" class as more representative of Forum members. That said, there is interesting information about results for touring bikes. At the bottom of the executive summary quoted below, I summarize some of the tabular results for "touring" bikes, and "sport-touring" where that category is called out separately.

I think the compelling question that comes out of any report like this is, "What can I as a rider learn from this and do differently?" The report doesn't specifically say, but the usual suspects are all implied--viz., speed, impairment, and skills.

Below I have excerpted the executive summary, followed by a description of the class "touring."

An Analysis of California Motorcyclist Fatalities 1995-2009

Will 2009 be the start of a new trend?

Prepared for:

CA Office of Traffic Safety

 

August 8, 2011

 

TransAnalytics, LLC

336 West Broad Street

Quakertown, PA 18951

Executive Summary

In recent years, while automobile fatalities have continued to decline, motorcycle fatalities have risen markedly. The count of motorcycle fatalities has risen every year since 1996, and at a rate greater than that of motorcycle registrations and licenses. That rise in fatalities among motorcyclists (operators and passengers) was arrested in 2009, perhaps as a belated result of the economic recession or perhaps for other reasons that are not yet evident.

It is too early to know if 2009 will have been an anomaly or a change of direction in this arena. Despite this one-year decline, motorcycle fatalities remain troublingly higher both in absolute counts and in rates with an increase of motorcycle deaths of 43% between 2000 and 2009.

This report explores the information gathered principally in the National Highway Traffic Administration’s Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) with registrations, VINs and license counts from the State of California and Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) from the Federal Highway Administration.

Exacerbating Influences

Motorcycle licensing lags behind motorcycle registration. Licensing has increased only 44% since 2000 while motorcycle registrations have increased by 80%, suggesting an increase of operating vehicles without properly licensed operators. (Table 2.)

This inference is supported by the over-representation of improperly licensed operators among crashes. (Table 13.)

Proper licensure among the youngest operators has declined in rate since 2000. Where almost 3 in 5 operators under 25 years of age were properly licensed in 2000, nearly 3 in 5 under 25 years were not in the most recent three year span (2009 - 2009.) (Table 13.)

Super Sport motorcycles, designed and marketed to evoke images of racing and high-speed operation are, not surprisingly, over-represented among California fatalities. (Table 6.)

Engine size continues to rise modestly, likely delivering an increase of available energy and forces at play during any crash event. (Table 7.)

The number of vehicles common to motorcycle fatal crashes continues to rise. (Table 8.)

The operator age also continues to rise since calendar year 2000, introducing consideration of comparable frailty between youthful and older operators. (Table 9.)

Speeding remains at the top of the list for contributing factors to motorcyclist fatalities in 2009. (Table 14.)

Mitigating Influences

Helmet use by motorcyclists has risen. (Table 15.)

Helmet use is highest among motorcycle classes associated with excessive speed. (Tables S-7 and S-20.)

Alcohol impairment is lowest among motorcycle classes over-represented among fatal crashes. (Tables S-8 and Table 6.)

Except for Super Sport class, few motorcyclists are categorized as having operated recklessly. (Table S-15.)

Vehicle Miles Travelled in the State have declined to near 2003 levels, indicating overall reduced exposure which may indicate reduced exposure for motorcyclists as well. (Table 1.)

Unchanged Influences

Most fatalities are male, as are most operators. (Table 15.)

Super Sport class motorcycles remain the most over-represented per registered count, and the ranking of motorcycle representation among fatal crashes by class remained unchanged with only minor exceptions. (Table 6.)

Peak time of day for fatal crashes remained between noon and 9 pm. (Table 19.)

Distribution of crashes by road type remains largely unchanged with the greatest percentage occurring on municipal roads. (Table 27.)

May through September persist as the five deadliest months. (Table 23.)

Targets of Opportunity

Super Sport class motorcycles present an opportunity to align crash representation rate by registrations.

California’s most populous counties with about half of State’s population and half of fatal motorcycle crashes.

Saturday and Sunday crashes.

Operators under 45 years of age.

Municipal roads.

MOTORCYCLE CLASSES: "Touring"

Touring bikes made up almost 15% of registered motorcycles (2009) and nearly 11% of all fatalities (2007-2009).

Their riders were the oldest, with 94% 35 years of age and older. 96.4% were male, average.

84% of Touring bike riders wore helmets, about average; 82% had proper licenses, best of all classes of riders, and 86% owned their bikes, also highest of all classes.

Just 14% of Touring bike riders had prior speeding convictions, the lowest of all; 22% were impaired, average. They had the lowest levels for contributing factors listed: 71% had any contributing factor listed, including 31% excess speed, 20% not in lane, and 0% careless/erratic.

First events involving Touring bikes were hitting another vehicle (47.5%, average), overturning (28%, above average), and 21% hitting a fixed object (below average.

Touring bikes were in single vehicle crashes at an average rate (41%), fewer two-vehicle crashes than average (44%), and more crashes with 3+ vehicles (16%).

Just 39% of Touring class crashes were speed-related, though by far the most crashes were on roads with 50+ mph speed limits (76%).

More crashes with Touring bikes were on Saturday (30%) than average, somewhat fewer than average (just under 19%) on Sunday.

Touring bike crashes were most often on arterial roads (about 76%,) with 24% on expressways/freeways and 26% on other principal arterials, 25% on minor arterials. Fewest on local streets (4.6%).

Just 47% were in urban areas and about 18% at intersections, both the lowest figures of any motorcycle classes.

RESULTS FOR TOURING BIKES (Compiled by JB)

Sport-touring bikes [called out separately in this table] represent 1.3% of all fatal accidents. Super sport 37.5%, cruisers 23%, touring bikes represent 10.8%.

Here's a shocking statement :no: : "Reported alcohol impairment is highest among operators of Cruiser class motorcycles and lowest among operators of Other Sport and Super Sport motorcycles." 77.7% of fatal accidents for touring bikes did not involve alcohol (but!--22.3% did).

"Prior speeding convictions are found in highest frequency among Super Sport operators. The lowest among Touring class motorcycles." [i guess they didn't interview Fairlaner. :D ]

Of all classes, touring riders have the highest proportion of being properly licensed (81.7%).

Of four possible contributing "error" codes, touring riders have the fewest reporting of errors than all other classes; however, that lowest figure still comes in at 71.3% of crashes exhibiting one or more error codes.

For error code "excessive speed for conditions," once again touring bikes came in with the lowest percentage at 30.8% showing this code (just below cruisers at 32.4%). Wanna guess highest? Yup: super sport at 65.4%.

Touring bikes also had the lowest incidence of failing to maintain proper lane / running off the road, at 19.8%. But the standard deviation for all bikes was very tight here--everyone pretty much runs off the road at the same rate.

"...few operators [were] identified as riding recklessly or erratically. The only known class of motorcycles reporting above 1% involved operators of Super Sports." Touring came in at 0.0%. [Again, they obviously didn't observe Fairlaner. :p ]

 
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Here's a shocking statement :no: : "Reported alcohol impairment is highest among operators of Cruiser class motorcycles and lowest among operators of Other Sport and Super Sport motorcycles." 77.7% of fatal accidents for touring bikes did not involve alcohol (but!--22.3% did)
Welllll....when the "joy of riding" for a particular style of motorcycle is a Saturday ride from bar-to-bar or participation in a gathering (even for a good cause) includes a keg at the barbecue.... :glare:

And...why are you picking on Richard? He rides faster than most of us (Certainly faster than I ride) but seems to be capable and not dangerous to himself.

 
That's really interesting. I'd like to see the whole thing. How long did it take your friend to compile all those stats, and what exactly does he do for a living?

Rick

 
That's really interesting. I'd like to see the whole thing. How long did it take your friend to compile all those stats, and what exactly does he do for a living?

Rick
My buddy is an MSF rider-coach, former moto-cop, and current accident investigator. I think he used to work for NHTSA, but is active in working with national motorcycle safety gurus and federal agencies. He didn't work on this report, but got me a pdf.

 
You can bet the "feds" and the insurance companies are watching the trends.

We are all responsible for the statistics. Their interpretation will be implemented by whichever institution wants to use them.

 
Great Post. It would also be interesting to hear how they arried at some of those statistics, for example "Helmet use by motorcyclists has risen.(Table 15.)" Did they arrive at that conclusion? was it by number of helmets sold in the state? or number of riders who were in accidents and had a helmet on? or by some other method.

Good read...

 
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I may have missed it, but was there a stat for accidents/fatality by class per milage traveled? I would think the touring/sport touring would be low.

 
Very interesting. Thanks for posting.

FYI, I own a Gold Wing and an FJR. The FJR is definitely a SuperSport and that's why I love it.

 
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