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If your temps stay below freezing for more than 48 hrs on a regular basis, I would recommend a heat pump with backup gas/propane heat along with the usual heat strips. Normal operation would be heat pump, but would revert to propane when the outside temps drop. The emergency heat (electric heat strips) would be used only if you ran out of propane or experienced a failure of some kind with the propane furnace.
Heat pumps are very efficient if you are willing to set the thermostat and forget it. As mentioned, they take time to raise the temp, so setting the thermostat to change the temp while you are away is not usually cheaper (assuming you will be insulating the house well). You can set it lower if you will be gone for the weekend or longer, but I don't recommend setting more than 10 deg F lower than usual.

Your thermostat will need an outside air temp probe for most cost efficient operation with a 3 stage heat. This allows the unit to switch from heat pump to gas when the temp reaches a certain point. This temp is usually near the freezing point, but is actually set based on cost of gas/propane vs. electricity. With costs of propane and electricity in hand, any good HVAC installer should be able to use the formulas to determine this temp for your installation. Without an outside air probe, the unit will be capable of switching to backup heat, but usually only when the heat pump unit cannot maintain the set inside temp. This thermostat setup costs a bit more initially, but should pay for itself in reduced operating costs.

As others have mentioned, get a system with a high SEER rating. The higher, the better. The highest you can afford is my personal recommendation.

The most important thing to remember when dealing with any kind of HVAC or refrigeration is that the equipment is only as good as the installation. Find the BEST installer in your area, instead of shopping for the cheapest price. A good installer will take the time to calculate all the variables when load sizing a system for your installation, and take the time to explain everything to you.

David
+1, Good advice.

 
I built a house 3 years ago, put in 90+ forced air furnance(propane).Looked into heat pump, geothemal, etc. but could'nt get by the initial cost, especially full geo, which meant for me 800 ft of boreing for a closed loop system. Since then, I have met a good friend who intalls outdoor wood furnaces. He swears by them,and I do trust him. Says it will pay for itself in 4 years, even if I have wood delivered. www.heatsource1.com hope this helps

 
I'm pretty keen on the geothermal heat pump. We got off the propane 18 months ago, and the payoff is faster than we anticipated. Our GTHP also produces hot water. We have cold water piped into a second (unpowered) water heater. That water circulates thru the heat pump, and the 'hot' water output is then piped into the input on our powered electrical water heater. This gives us preheated water into the water heater, and reduces some of the energy to heat the water.

So I have 2 water heaters, one is heated by the geothermal, that warm water goes into the powered water heater. We are thinking of removing the second (powered) water heater, and getting a tank less (on demand) water heater. On top of that, we're thinking of putting a few solar water cells on the roof to make sure there is preheated water going into the tank less heater all year around.

The furnace we got was a Tranquility™ geothermal system from ClimateMaster.

The energy-efficiency criteria for geothermal heat pumps to qualify for the Energy Star program requires an EER rating of 14.1 (closed loop systems) or 16.2 (open loop system). The Tranquility 27™ (two-stage) has a EER rating of 27; the Tranquility 20™ (single stage) has a EER rating of 20 – showing that not all Energy Star qualified systems are equal.
My is 2200 sq ft, and was built in the late 70's. This house does will with this furnace, and two 200 foot trenches.

My in-laws have a 10 year old house with 8" thick walls that include spray on foam everywhere and an inch of the blue foam between the plywood and the cedar siding. That house is about as air tight as you can get, and their air source heat pump they have works extremely well.

Heat pumps, especially ground source heat pumps, are very capable if your house is well insulated. (we set our house down 2 degrees at night, and it comes up to temp in less than 10 minutes without the auxiliary boost)

Up there in the great white north, I"m sure you have well insulated building codes, and shouldn't have any issues with a ground source heat pump.

 
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