Earnings season...

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PapaUtah

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Harley-Davidson® reported their latest earnings after the strike. It has prompted some interesting news stories. Here are a few snippets from one of the latest stories.

"Even as it comes off the most profitable year in its history, the Milwaukee-based maker of the world's most famous motorcycles has challenges on several fronts:

--The graying of its prime audience. The median age for a Harley buyer is 47, compared with 38 for other motorcycle companies."

Can you say, "Buick"? Buick’s problem now is that they have few repeat buyers as they are so old they generally die shortly after the purchase. The Motor Company® needs to be aware of this phenomenon. I guess as long as there are people who can remember the 1920’s Harley-Davidson® will continue to sell them products from that era.

" --Increased manufacturing costs. Harley-Davidson® is gearing up for labor contract talks in Milwaukee and Kansas City, after weathering a short but costly strike at its largest assembly plant in York, Pa. Union members say the spirit of cooperation that once existed between labor and management is broken."

They should be able to get advice on these types of relationships from Ford, GM and Chrysler.

" --Foreign competition. Manufacturers such as Honda and Kawasaki are making high-quality bikes that compete with Harley Davidson's® products."

It’s about time those pesky Japanese were able to catch up to the legendary high quality standards that have been in place for years at Harley-Davidson®. Who knows, maybe in another 50 years they will be able to surpass the quality of a Harley-Davidson®.

"Yet some analysts worry that the price of a Harley-Davidson® -- about $7,000 for a Sportster and up to $30,000 for a deluxe touring bike -- could send younger riders to the smaller, less expensive motorcycles offered by Japanese manufacturers."

A good journalist never lets the facts get in the way of a good story. "…smaller, less expensive motorcycles offered by Japanese manufacturers." Apparently this reporter has never sat upon said motorcycles. He did get the less expensive part correct, although that gap is closing. Size wise he has his facts reversed as The Motor Company® products are smaller than their Japanese counterparts in both physical size and displacement and horsepower.

""There's nothing unique about owning a Harley-Davidson® now," said analyst Tony Gikas with Piper Jaffray Co., a Minneapolis investment firm. Gikas has been a Harley-Davidson® rider for more than 20 years.

"I ride with old-school, traditional guys. There's still a lot of us around, and we don't like what's happened with Harley-Davidson®," he said. "Even as recent as 2000 it was still like being in an exclusive club. Now it's kind of a broken group with a bunch of doctors, lawyers and Wall Street yuppies.""

Let the in-fighting begin! Mr. Gikas appears to have armed himself with a check book in this battle against the 1%ers.

 
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Money issues aside, I was at a coffee bar yesterday next to a guy wearing a Stugis t-shirt; I opened a conversation and he only talked about his 2000 power commandered big-twin, trike conversion, and how much noise his Reinhart pipes make -- said he sets-off car alarms everywhere. Sounded like he was just talking about a 'rolling noise machine' , to me?

On a related note: the day before I had lunch in a little bistro and the waitress there was wearing a Stugis t-shirt. I asked, "Did you get that shirt there?" She answered, "No, I had someone pick it up for me." I said, "You know, you're really only supposed to wear them if you got them there." She said, "You want me to take it off....?"

 
There is still something to the mystique overseas as their international sales are up almost 20%. Could be the new niche that keeps the train chugging(and the dividends flowing). Weak dollar could help their overseas sales also. They are going after international sales hard. They keep surprising so for them to pull the rabbit out of the hat again would be good news. :yahoo: International sales were up over the period. US sales were down.

 
Yeah - you gotta feel REAL sorry for the Motor Co. -

CHICAGO — Harley-Davidson Inc. (HDI) Wednesday said quarterly earnings rose a better-than-expected 22 percent, driven by strong sales of its entry-level Sportster model.

The stock rose 5 percent on the New York Stock Exchange (search).

The company, best known for its chrome-plated touring bikes, said total sales in its U.S. dealer network climbed 18.8 percent during the quarter, boosted by demand for the redesigned Sportster.

The Sportster (search), at prices starting at about $6,500, is the company's lower-end motorcycle designed to attract younger riders. New 2005 models were shipped to dealers two weeks early this year to meet strong demand.

"The retail numbers were up over 18 percent. This is even better than we were originally expecting," said Carole Buyers, analyst with RBC Capital Markets, who rates the stock "outperform."

Milwaukee-based Harley-Davidson said second-quarter net income rose to $247.2 million, or 83 cents a share, from $202.2 million, or 66 cents a share, a year earlier.

Analysts, on average, expected earnings of 75 cents a share, within a range of 74 cents to 79 cents, according to Reuters Estimates.

"What drove the earnings upside was stronger-than-expected gross margins" aided by greater operating efficiencies at its plants, said Timothy Conder, an analyst with A.G. Edwards, who rated the stock "buy."

Harley-Davidson said revenue increased to $1.33 billion from $1.22 billion.

The company left unchanged its 2004 production target of 317,000 motorcycles, up 8.9 percent from the year before, after signaling in January that future shipments would increase at a slower pace than the double-digit rates of recent years.

In January, the company said its long-range goal is to produce 400,000 Harley-Davidson motorcycles in 2007 and achieve annual earnings growth at a mid-teens percentage rate.

The company said second-quarter revenue from Harley-Davidson motorcycles was $1.02 billion, up 6.8 percent. It shipped 82,034 Harley-Davidson motorcycles in the quarter, an increase of 7.9 percent over the year before.

Parts and accessories revenue rose 12.7 percent to $230.1 million. Revenue from general merchandise, such as apparel and collectibles, was $53.1 million, up 21.5 percent.

At Harley-Davidson Financial Services, its financing arm, operating income rose 10.2 percent to $49.0 million.

Shares of Harley-Davidson rose $3.10 to $62.70 Wednesday, just shy of the $62.88 all-time high.

 
Yeah - you gotta feel REAL sorry for the Motor Co......New 2005 models were shipped to dealers two weeks early this year
Hmmm. I don’t believe that the chrome shines quite so bright in 2007.

 
Got too excited and copied the wrong article sorry - yeah they are polishing that chrome a lttle harder this year --

The motorcycle maker's shares gained Thursday after it announced better than expected quarterly results

Harley-Davidson (HOG) said Apr. 19 that its sales and profit languished during the first quarter ended Apr. 1, but the Milwaukee, (Wis.) company managed to surprise investors positively nonetheless. Market players have watched the motorcycle maker grapple with striking workers during recent months and are already looking toward more profitable times ahead.

Harley's net income amounted to $192.3 million during the April quarter, down 18% compared the same period last year. Revenue fell 8.3% year over year to $1.18 billion. "We anticipated that first quarter results would be lower than last year due to the strike," CEO Jim Ziemer said in a press release Apr. 19.

So did market players. The motorcycle maker had already warned on Feb. 27 that it would have lower than expected earnings growth, after ending the three week strike at its manufacturing facility in York, Pa. on Feb. 22. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had predicted 72 cents per share during the April quarter. Instead Harley's earnings per share were 74 cents during the April quarter.

Investors bid up Harley's stock 3.4% to $63.32 per share Apr. 19 on the New York Stock Exchange.

"These lackluster results were not unexpected, and the firm's performance should improve as production ramps back up," Morningstar analyst Marisa E. Thompson said in a note Apr. 19.

Standard & Poor's Equity Research upgraded Harley's stock to hold from sell. "Though HOG lost Q1 revenue because of the strike, we expect most will be recovered in the next three quarters," analyst Erik Kolb said. "Our upgrade reflects our expectation that profit growth will resume." (S&P, like BusinessWeek.com, is owned by The McGraw-Hill Companies.)

Harley promised to have earnings per share growth between 4-6% in 2007 compared to 2006. During 2008 and 2009 Harley expects EPS growth between 11 and 17%.

After the strike in February. most of the more than 2,500 members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) Local 175 finally agreed on a new 3-year contract with Harley. While the dispute wound up costing everyone about a month of production, Morningstar pointed out on Feb. 23 that under their recent agreement, Harley's new employees will now start at a lower wage rate than current employees and then begin earning a more comparable rate after the initial few years. The agreement also reduces Harley's matching percentage for new employees who make optional contributions to the pension plan.

Thus the short-term pain from the strike during the first quarter might actually lead to long-term gains - for Harley.

 
On a related note: the day before I had lunch in a little bistro and the waitress there was wearing a Stugis t-shirt. I asked, "Did you get that shirt there?" She answered, "No, I had someone pick it up for me." I said, "You know, you're really only supposed to wear them if you got them there." She said, "You want me to take it off....?"

Was she cute? Inquiring (dirty) minds must know! Did you say yes or no?

 
On a related note: the day before I had lunch in a little bistro and the waitress there was wearing a Stugis t-shirt. I asked, "Did you get that shirt there?" She answered, "No, I had someone pick it up for me." I said, "You know, you're really only supposed to wear them if you got them there." She said, "You want me to take it off....?"
Was she cute? Inquiring (dirty) minds must know! Did you say yes or no?
She was getting cuter right along. I mumbled something like, "Maybe not right now." (Not my best line) I did find out that she rides a Honda 600 Shadow. I'm planning on going back for lunch again soon ....... B)

 
Well you know that in 2007 they gave all the big bikes a 96 cu in motor (from 88) and a six speed transmission .vs. five. ALL are now fuel-injected. They introduced the Sportster "Nightster: (I think that's what it's called) and they've been selling well. All of the local dealers that I spoke to tell me that there's a sort of frenzy with people wanting to trade their EVO or 88 cu in bikes for the latest thing with the 96 cu in and six-speed. Maybe (in some small way) it's contributing to higher than expected sales figures. I know I went right out and got an '07 Dyna Low Rider. :D

 
Shares of Harley-Davidson rose $3.10 to $62.70 Wednesday, just shy of the $62.88 all-time high.

I bought HOG(formerly HDI) in 1996 have not sold any shares and it has appreciated between 350-400%. Just barely exceeded US inflation rate , HUH??

 
There was an early frenzy to trade in pre-07's on new bikes. When the dealers starting offering significantly less than they paid for the bike on trade sales seem to have dipped. Used Harley-Davidson® pricing has been under a lot of downward pressure since 2004. This in turn is making a dent in new sales as it is costing the faithful $8K-$10K to trade up whereas in the past it was a $4K-$5K proposition.

Tighter lending is also chewing into sales at The Motor Company®. About 15% of HDFS® financed bikes(over half of all Harley-Davidson® motorcycles sold) went to borrowers with "speculative" credit ratings(read interest rates of 15%). HDFS® has seen their default rates double in the past year alone. Coupled with lower used bike values and HDFS® is getting double whacked on the repo's. This is interesting news in light of Mr. Gikas comments above that Harley-Davidson® is no longer that "exclusive" club and appears to be populated by those poseurs he disdains. Harley-Davidson® used to crow about the wealth of its buyers. I guess we are finding out out is more fiction than fact.

 
Well it's not just HD. Easy credit all around. Home re-possessions are at an all time high, as well. Folks buy "gap insurance" on new cars because they're "upside down" on the loan. "Zero down, zero payments for a year". And the list goes on.

 
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