FJRForum Official 2015 Iron Butt Rally Tracking/Analysis thread

[Uncle Hud]

Twigg posted: .... and 17 Yamahas finished, not 16

I guess I'm less concerned with who finished on what, than I am in which brands failed, and why.

That takes the rider out of the equation and lets folk choose based upon reliability.

Based on Ride to Eat's table in post 1576, 5 BMWs (out of 33, that's 15%) did not finish; 3 Hondas (of 22, 14%); 1 Harley-Davidson (13%); 2 Triumphs (40%); and 1 Kawasaki (33%) -- BUT, those are DNFs and not necessarily vehicle failures. Note that percentages are not representative with the smaller 'sample sizes', but percentages among the first three marques are surprisingly consistent, aren't they?

And you're right, Twigg: Yamahas (including both Super Teneres) had 1 more finisher than starter.

 

[Go Far]

Rule No. 1 in rallying is "No Whining".
Brian R.

IBA # (one less than GoFar's)

Hah! 266...265

potato potatoe

Thinking back to the Run what you Brung rally....

BBQ here BBQ there. I was denied! Even got most miles!

That was a damn good rally.

Set parameters, even playing field, fair scoring.

Gee whiz - wanted to poke some fun for placing one position higher than you in our first IBR finish and you remind me of the "Run what Ya Brung" rally, which was actually even more apropos to the situation.

5 day rally and the difference between me and GoFar was a bonus to get receipt for BBQ in Memphis. I could not easily find a BBQ and was quickly running out of town then just before crossing the river I spotted a Mickey D's. I stopped and got some McNuggets...with BBQ sauce..... THAT was accepted as suitable Memphis BBQ since it said what type of sauce I wanted on the receipt and the addy was in Memphis. Could have gone either way, I got first and GoFar (who rode about 150 miles more than I did) got second. Those are funny memories! (and THAT folks is what I think rallying is really all about)

I have been very fortunate to make some awful good friends, and create some terrific memories rallying. Now I think I should dust off that "Run What Ya Brung" plaque!

DUDE! And all this time I thought you bought a McRib

You got that bonus! Reminds me of Eddie and Adams 'take a picture of the giant bat'

Another memory I have is IBR '09. I got a bonus and stuck it in the tankbag-

Lolo Hot Springs Cabins 1,245 points Daylight hours only

US-12, .3 miles south of town

Lolo Hot Springs, Montana

N46 43.496 - W114 31.962

Take a photo of the business sign from the highway.

Category: Literary murder.

In the movie A River Runs through It Norman McLean's brother is beaten to death in a gambling hall

near here, presumably because of a gambling debt. Paul McLean was actually beaten to death in

Chicago on 5/2/1938.

Date: ________ Time: _________Odometer: ________ Code: LHS Approved: _________

I didn't claim it on the score sheet.

And, I didn't realize is until days after the rally was over...

 

[Twigg]

Twigg posted: .... and 17 Yamahas finished, not 16

I guess I'm less concerned with who finished on what, than I am in which brands failed, and why.

That takes the rider out of the equation and lets folk choose based upon reliability.

Based on Ride to Eat's table in post 1576, 5 BMWs (out of 33, that's 15%) did not finish; 3 Hondas (of 22, 14%); 1 Harley-Davidson (13%); 2 Triumphs (40%); and 1 Kawasaki (33%) -- BUT, those are DNFs and not necessarily vehicle failures. Note that percentages are not representative with the smaller 'sample sizes', but percentages among the first three marques are surprisingly consistent, aren't they?

And you're right, Twigg: Yamahas (including both Super Teneres) had 1 more finisher than starter.

Only two BMWs failed their riders in this event.

One was an electronic meltdown on a brand new K1600, the other was an FD related failure on a high-mileage K1200. I had hoped that BMW had put their reliability issues behind them with the new bikes, but apparently not. Technically, BMW are more sophisticated than either Yamaha or Honda. This has advantages when the technology works, but the IBR tests systems to destruction. What we do to bikes might be right at the bleeding edge of their intended use, and more demanding than almost all other users, but they are not coping as well as they should.

For example ... There are clear advantages to Can-bus wiring systems. However, on cars the normal practise is to get in them and drive. Few make major mods or additions to those vehicles. On motorcycles the opposite is true. It is normal to make changes and Can-bus doesn't play nicely with changes. Fancy electronic suspensions are another area. Why? How many riders ever really need on-the-fly changes to suspension setting, or even use them if available. I know some do, but most riders do not. A simple lever to firm up the rear works really quite well. Those systems are nice to have but cannot be fixed if they fail. That said, few suspension settings failures stop a bike moving forwards ... ask Iggy!

I'm not a Luddite. I like innovation but when the price is an elevated risk of failing to finish the Iron Butt Rally, I'm going to choose Honda or Yamaha. Of 38 entries from those two brands, only one failed, and that was the charging system on a relatively light-weight model. ST1300, Gold Wing, FJR1300, Super Tenere ... not a major issue from any of them ... again.

I know BMW are popular, and I know that some BMW riders feel their rides are singled out for unfair criticism. I do not feel, however, that "pointing out what happened", is either singling them out, or unfair. I do feel that loyal customers who pay premium prices, for everything, are being let down.

 

[sapest]

IBR community et al -

Once you have recovered enough to face a kybrd, I would be interested (& hopefully others) in your comments about the gear you wore.

What worked well, what was an epic fail? Did anyones 'waterproof' gloves prove that claim?

Thank you and much respect for your efforts. All back safe - no better outcome than that.

-Steve

 

[Rototiller]

One reason behind the call-in bonus was to allow the staff to know where you have been, where you are and where you plan on going incase something happens and optionally how you are doing, with SPOT that is no longer an issue except if you are running on empty, of course that info is optional to what is required in the bonus. I think it is a good bonus to leave in, gives you something to think about and keep track of what day and time you're in during the leg. I'm sure I'm not the only rider who lost track of what day of the rally you're riding.

I don't recall anyone having trouble like Kirsten and Josh had before, maybe the weather was causing havoc with the system and the riders will have to keep that in mind.

Donald

 

[RideToEat]

I agree with Twigg about the relative importance of mechanical failure. I do not include the Yamaha that replaced the failed Beemer, because that's really an exception to the data layout - and it only ran half a rally.

Here's another couple of tables, the first showing DNF's, and the second showing riders impacted by mechanical issues during the rally:

I did not include make or model for the DNFs that were not clearly related to bike failure.

I also skipped mechanical issues that were generic, like tire or wheel problems.

All of the data was gleaned from the daily reports, so it is certainly not a complete record of all the mechanical issues experienced during the rally.

BTW, here is a single PDF containing all of the daily reports. Useful for searching. Obviously it's a big mutha...

 

[Twigg]

Allen Hatcher suffered an FD related failure. He told me it was either drive-shaft splines or universal joint. He wasn't sure.

In the interests of fairness, it should be pointed out that Allens K12 had a starting mileage of 235 000.

Oh yeah ... my FJR did only complete half the rally, but in its defense I should point out that it also completed 8500 miles in the ten days prior to the rally start. I cleaned the lights and changed the oil before handing it over. Even the tires remained at pressure

 

[Warren]

Anyone here see what the point values were for the 3 legs? Curious minds want to know.

 

[BluesCruiser]

What a great experience it was to watch the riders roll in at the finish! When Al pulled his helmet off and looked...well...pretty damned good! It made me feel a LOT better about my 69 years and riding! This is my 3rd arm-chair IB Rally and IMHO it was the best yet. Oh I have loved the other two, but something about riding to the 50 parks in 25 states just seemed like the spice that made the 11 days extra special.

There is always controversy. Let's face it...that is part of what makes "bench-racing" this rally so much fun. All I can say is that, from everyone who has been downrange, "sh*t happens"!

OMG is it really 2 years until 2017!!! :-\ Thank you...Thank you to the FJR Forum and to all the riders of FJRs and others who have made this ONCE AGAIN a great rally experience!

Dave (yes I do ride a V-Strom!) ;-)

 

[Cruzin]

Some selected pictures courtesy of Tobie at Smugmug.
[img=[URL="https://mattwatkins.org/blog1/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2015-07-06_18-08-55.jpg%5D"]https://mattwatkins.org/blog1/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2015-07-06_18-08-55.jpg][/URL]

Chris McGaffin sporting an '03 with various parts from other bikes.

[img=[URL="https://mattwatkins.org/blog1/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2015-07-06_18-11-28.jpg%5D"]https://mattwatkins.org/blog1/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2015-07-06_18-11-28.jpg][/URL]

A little look-see and improvement?

[img=[URL="https://mattwatkins.org/blog1/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2015-07-06_18-13-02.jpg%5D"]https://mattwatkins.org/blog1/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2015-07-06_18-13-02.jpg][/URL]

Tow FJR riders are being driven to their destination....as that's what IBR staff do for riders. Notice the rally book in Erik's hands.

[img=[URL="https://mattwatkins.org/blog1/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2015-07-06_18-11-05.jpg%5D"]https://mattwatkins.org/blog1/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/2015-07-06_18-11-05.jpg][/URL]

Actually there was 3 FJR riders in that picture...I was in the front....Just spectating

 

[RenoJohn]

Using the point system from MotoGP for the top 15 positions: (25-1, top weighted)

The BMW is clearly the most popular mount, both among the big dogs and the field.

And, percentage and points wise, it dominated the top 15.

But in terms of points effectiveness, per rider the Yamaha crushes the field. In fact the BMW is even edged out by the Honda.

Of course this is all nonsense given the vast universe of variables - the largest of which is the human factor, but interesting nonetheless.

I really like this stuff and nifty the way you've used and used an accepted (MotoGP) weighting system.
Yes, not enough data and too many variables if you're looking just at bike performance. But there is a human element and it's consistent:

BMW is the overwhelming favorite bike of IBR riders, and not just this year. This year 38% of the field and as you say dominated the top tier (15 in your breakdown)

That's not unusual, 2nd time in the last 5 years that BMW has held 50% of the top 10 (maybe I'll go back and look at top 15)

and in the last 6 IBR's they've never been below 30% of the top-10. I'll say it again. IBR riders like BMW and the bike has taken top spots consistently.

Now, we can stretch our imaginations trying to figure out all the tiny and major mechanical breakdowns ...but I guarantee there are many things by all bike flavors that were fixed on the road and never reported. My Yamaha blew a radiator in one of the Cognoscente rallies, (caught a rock) if that would have been a BMW there are people that would have said that was a BMW failure. (BTW I didn't DNF).

Regardless of how much you want to take pride in your flavor of bike, or point to numbers showing your bike is superior (and it may be) ...the fact is that BMW is the most popular bike for the IBR riders (people) and in the big picture, and this year, it more than holds it's own in the top tier.

I've just looked at the last six events, those who want more data will likely find even more BMW favoritism.

Thanks again for the great analysis and organization Steve, awesome stuff.

-----Sidenote-------

Why are BMW bikes getting lighter and faster while the FJR gets more obese every year??

...from a current FJR owner on his second FJR. (which doesn't change the numbers)

 

[Twigg]

You can cut the results any way you like

Last time out FJR took 5 of the top 6 places. This year they only took 3 of the top 5, but the highest placed BMW was 5th. All of that is meaningless because you end up in a "chicken and egg" situation. Are the bikes finishing higher because they are better, or ridden by top riders? Or are they being bought by top riders because they are consistently finishing highly placed?

It doesn't matter how you argue the merits, all we can reasonably conclude is that BMW has too many failures due to unforseen mechanical or electrical breakdowns. That doesn't make them bad bikes, but it does mean that if you want to take advantage of the very clear benefits of a BMW, you also have to accept a slightly elevated risk of not finishing .. at least when compared to past performance in relation to some other brands.

It is also the case that BMW are innovative. Their bikes may be highly priced, but they are also highly prized for their technical excellence, good manners, and comfortable ergonomics. Reliability is not the only consideration. My disappointment is that BMW have been slow to take responsibility, something they at least tried to fix with the latest recall. One might hope such recalls were unnecessary, but it is hard to fault the company for their response.

 

[Bugnatr]

I want to give a shout out to our forum member Brant... aka DaJuice. He pulled out a very respectable 3rd in this years IBR.

I had the pleasure of meeting and riding with Brant and a few other LD FJR types at CFO 09 in La Crosse, Wi. He was a gps fool then and I could see his interest in finding the proper route.

Way to go Brant, nice finish!!!!

 

[HotRodZilla]

I gotta say, I'm an ass!

I didn't congratulate Brant or Tony. Brant rocked this IBR. He ran a very steady pace and moved up each leg, all the way to third. On top of that, he's a super cool guy.

Tony ran a good rally also. He had a couple of problems, one of which almost finished him. I was very happy to hear he did finish and placed respectably. I don't know many that can simply ride the sheer miles Tony can. He just has to get better at rally stuff.

Congratulations to both of you!!

AND, Brant, cough up the picture already!!

 

[kgjl]

It is my understanding that 73% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

 

[Tyler]

It is my understanding that 73% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

 

[RideToEat]

. . . you end up in a "chicken and egg" situation. Are the bikes finishing higher because they are better, or ridden by top riders? Or are they being bought by top riders because they are consistently finishing highly placed?

I don't know... when I was looking at the numbers, I found the Yamaha points-per-rider perspective to be telling.

And that was consistent whether you look at starters, finishers, or top 15. Even after you wash everything down with all imaginable variables.

I haven't plugged the numbers in, but that stat does not seem anomalous in IBR results during the age of the FJR, especially in the years since the ST1300 has faded. (to all my ST bretheren, yes I know we won this year, but nobody can seriously suggest the mount itself still exceeds the FJR)

Reasons to seek or avoid the BMW are legion, and often completely slimed over with emotion. Which is cool, because emotion ought to be one of the top reasons to pick a ride.

But speaking as someone far outside of LD competitiveness (or even, currently, participation), it still seems to me that mechanical soundness, especially in the face of witheringly few fully staffed and stocked service departments, should be near the top of the "LD Hierarchy of Needs" one would use to inform their choice of mount for competitive LD events.

 

[Stumpy]

Just letting everyone know that my trusty 03 FJR has delivered me to Washington state after my IBR adventure complete with leaking FD...yes the FD was leaking for the entire rally! Eric V. checked the oil level for me at the finish and there was crap all left. He refilled it and when I arrived here today the rear tire sidewall was covered in oil so it seems to be getting worse. But I love this bike.....hell... the oil has been pissing out for 13,000 miles, its ran near dry and the thing still goes. You just can't kill an FJR FD!!

Could I just say a big thank you to Rick, Kreis and Eric for helping to keep me on the road during the rally. THANK YOU.

PS.. an 03 FJR with a leaking FD would appear to be able to out muscle an ST 1300.....I rode with Mario W. up to his place over the last 2 days.......

 

[Bounce]

Why is BMW selected by so many participants of the IBR? Because, like the rally, it's conspicuous consumption.

 

[Wheels Up]

Why is BMW selected by so many participants of the IBR? Because, like the rally, it's conspicuous consumption.

see post # 1591

Jim Puckett

lots of BMW's since 1992

BMW's all gone; now on a 2-week old 2015 Harley Road Glide Special