Test-Driving Preliminary Results of Statistical Analysis

[James Burleigh]

Good stuff... indicates that we motorcyclists are in control of our destiny to a large extent. And I would say even when the cager was tagged at fault some of those accidents probably could be avoided with better skills and observation (on the part of the rider).

I wholeheartedly agree. And is that not why we all good traffic strategies (observation, as you say) as well as rapid braking and swerving? If I recall from the Hurt report, a large number (the majority?) of motorcyclists failed to take any kind of evasive measure before the accident. Of course that opens up the debate: did they lack the skills, or was there too little time? (I believe both conclusions were arrived at, and the former in part led to the MSF training program.)

 

[James Burleigh]

JB,
As a MC Safety rep for my unit, I am VERY interested in the data you have. In fact, I think this thread will be important enough for me to figure out the "subscription" thingy on here.

If you don't mind, I would like to be able to use some of your findings to get people's attention when I brief. I'll give you more time to go through them before i start asking a bunch of questions.

Thanks for doing this!

Howdy, Duff. Unit? Que es un unit?

There's a subscription thingy on the forum??? :blink:

You are welcome to my results. I confess I do not want to completely identify and analyze the results through this vehicle (the forum), as my goal is to publish an article, and an editor may not be interested if it appears the results have already been published elsewhere. But I do want to continue to exchange some ideas and obtain ideas from the forum members like in this post, as it will help me understand the information of interest to fellow riders. In any event, I will continue to post at the summary level given above. I am now on to analyzing the Party and Victim datasets.

 

[James Burleigh]

Do you have any data available that would allow you to correlate accidents involving severe injury/death of the rider to type of safety equipment worn? I know helmet use is mandatory in California, but when my wife and I stopped at Neptune's Rest while driving up the coast during a visit a couple of years ago, it seemed that a LOT of the riders were wearing $15 half helmets that probably weren't even DOT certified. Most of them were in T-shirts and jeans, too.

The only field available is whether the riders were wearing helmets, which is pretty moot in this state. The data reveal that a very small percentage of accidents did not include wearing helmets. But it is incidental.

The more you get into the data, the more you realize how much information is lacking that would be hugely useful, like whether riders were licensed or trained, equipment worn, and most of all, number of bikes on the road per county at any given time.

 

[James Burleigh]

JB,interesting stats you have generated. I know you probably dont have all the needed data... It would be interesting to explore descritions a bit more deeply. For example you say 5% of accidents occur in construction sites/dirty conditions. I think it would be more interesting if placed within the context of what percent of the total road is under construction. So for example if road construction occurs on less than 1% of the road at any time on average, this would mean that for every mile traveled on torn up roads you are far more likely to dump. Same with dry streets. Placed into the context of a per capita value (accedents per mile traveled on wet vs dry) think the values would be strikingly different.

My point is really one of statistical interaction. That is a drunk riding at night in the rain hits a construction site and lets hope he has gear and the construction guys parked the front loader way off the road.

All good stuff. And I'm going to drill down where the data permits. But what's missing in most cases for really substantive (and predictive) results, is what's in the denominator, as you allude to above--viz., how many bikes on the road at any given time, how many miles under construction at any given time, etc.

There are opportunities to do in-depth analysis, and where possible I will try to do it. Examples are "at fault," "alcohol involved," and "MC fatalities." In other words, I can select all the records where one of those was the case, and analyze the results. I can't tell you ever the probability an accident will happen, but I can tell you that, for example, if you drink and ride, XYZ will likely be the outcome.

Jb

 

[mikerider]

James, thanks for the info. Do you have the actual numbers you could post?As the % didn't really tell us much.

Thanks!

-mike-

Hi, Mike. Here you go.

* In the last 10 years motorcycle accidents have increased from 8,501 in 1997 to 12,350 in 2006; M.C. fatalities have doubled from 221 to 433 (more than one a day on average).

* Accidents per 100,000 licensed riders have remained fairly consistent at about 1,100; however, deaths per 100,000 licensed riders have increased from 27 to 39.

* 37,790 of a total of 110,526 M.C. accidents occurred on a weekend.

Please PM me regarding the data set, and we can sort that out.

Jb

Thank you, James. Now I can see better

The reason I asked was that I was trying to do something similar

to yours and I was in the collecting data phase (for all US.)

I was trying to see how we could reduce the risks ourselves from the statistics,

as much as we possibly and reasonably can.

Thanks again. Will PM you later.

-mike-

 

[James Burleigh]

Can anyone tell me the number of motorcycles registered in California by make by year (1996-2007) for the following bikes:

BMW

H-D

Honda

Susuki

Yamaha