Captain America
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Last week I said that US gasoline demand was a freight train about to crash into the brick wall of insufficient gasoline supplies. Now after falling for 12 consecutive weeks, gasoline inventories are at record low levels in terms of days of supplies (for this time of year). Localized gasoline shortages that have started to appear in Colorado and Iowa will spread to more local areas by the start of the summer driving season on Memorial Day (end of May). In June there may be some improvement but later on as the summer progresses, shortages may spread to entire states or even regions in about two to four months.
Since last week, the amount of publicity given gasoline inventories has increased almost exponentially. A few energy analysts now say that $4.00 average US gasoline prices by the end of summer is possible, but talk about outright shortages remains muted.
Refineries did their best to keep up demand by increasing the proportion of production towards more gasoline, and less distillates – like diesel. Still supplies along west coast slipped, but remained about lows.
Based on events following Hurricane Katrina, it appears that an inventory level of around 190 million barrels is the minimum level necessary to avoid scattered single state supply disruptions. Due to distortions caused in how ethanol is counted, the adjusted comparable figure may be 185 to 187 million barrels. However if current demand levels don’t change, we could see inventories fall as low as 180 million barrels at the end of this summer.
Since we getting closer to that 190 million level, and now stand about 193 million, I would expect to hear more reports about local shortages.
Crude imports last week came in higher than expected – about 10.25 million barrels per day – and gasoline imports exceeded the normal level of 1 million barrels a day for the second week and came in at about 1.15 million barrels a day. The rapid run-up in wholesale gasoline prices has attracted some imports, but not enough to prevent inventories from falling so far. In May of 2006, gasoline imports were very strong and wholesale gasoline prices were roughly comparable to levels reached in the last few days. This year, it is uncertain if imports can be increased much more even if the expected refinery strike in Antwerp on May 9 doesn’t materialize.