COVID-19 Catch All

[RossKean]

Cool.  I'll have a listen when I have a chance.  Are you headed back to pick it up where you left off?

Currently listening.  When does the ride report get published?

 

[Ignacio]

Cool.  I'll have a listen when I have a chance.  Are you headed back to pick it up where you left off?

Currently listening.  When does the ride report get published?

I do have "unfinished business" in Vietnam and will return, yes.

I may try and transcribe various FB posts and images to my blog....when I want to crunch in front of my full-size monitor and a proper keyboard.

 

[Bounce]

Got to the store today too. 7-9am Albertson's is "seniors only". Got some things (next to last 6-pack of TP with a guy walking up as I was getting it so I slid the other to him). A woman turned the corner missing it "by this much".

No rubbing alcohol at all but some non-stick pads for the biggest spots of road rash. The gauze pads I had were "problematic". Topped off gas on the way home and snagged 1 last small bottle that they had tucked a little back on a lower shelf.

Friend that I do computer stuff for his auto service business. He's early applied for SocSec has applied for COVID-19 expanded unemployment. Few customers are coming in. Few are scheduling apts and most are canceling. He was in a snit about how the store can let 120 people in at a time but eateries can't have 10 (if new restrictions haven't stopped that with take-out-only orders). I started to explain volumetric differences between the 2 spaces before I realized it was his emotional venting and trying to de-escalate would fail or make things worse.

 

[exskibum]

Flattening the curve -- probably the most important thing we can do to avoid the most dangerous: medical resources and services getting overwhelmed. Thanks, Iggy - for that reminder and the anticipation of an interesting RR. 

Many of us here are in the "senior" category, so here's a couple newly recognized early Covid-19 symptoms that might provide an early warning:

"Allergy eyes" - Kirkland Life Care RN described redness (not of whites of eyes, but around eyes) in nearly all the positives she treated there; looks like someone is suffering from an allergy.

Loss of senses of taste and smell - numerous infected persons have described these as being lost with onset.

High respiratory rate, and dry cough with onset. MD GF describes this as a pulmonary illness that can lead to rapid development of ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) in which the lungs fill with fluid and pneumonia. Smoking, vaping, diabetes, age, compromised immune system  = BAD. For presently uncertain reason, disproportional effect on males.   

 

[SacramentoMike]

As of today, Washington State has tested 34,000 and 2221 (7 percent) were positive.

At least here--but I suspect most everywhere--the only ones being tested are either in a high-risk category or already showing at least some kinds of symptoms.  So we should expect a misleadingly high percentage of positives.   Yes, it's serious as hell, but I think it's worth keeping this in mind.  Caution is good, but in the words of Douglas Adams: "Don't Panic."

 

[BigOgre]

New York would've flattened Mr. Adams like Kevin Bacon in Animal House.

As of this afternoon over 91,000 tested with close to 26,000 positive.  Vast majority in the city and immediate suburbs. 

 

[Bounce]

At least here--but I suspect most everywhere--the only ones being tested are either in a high-risk category or already showing at least some kinds of symptoms.  So we should expect a misleadingly high percentage of positives.   Yes, it's serious as hell, but I think it's worth keeping this in mind.  Caution is good, but in the words of Douglas Adams: "Don't Panic."

Grade school math. The numerator is the number of fatalities (for this discussion). To keep that "real" we need to have the best denominator we can achieve. That the number of ACTUAL cases (no, mild, medium, or caliente symptoms). We can't know that without testing everyone (theoretically). We also know there will be some who either choose not to, or can't, take the test.

For this example lets say:

X is the number of fatalities. Y=total cases, Z=those who opt out of testing or are missed in someway, F=Fatality rate as a % of total cases.

X/(Y-Z)=F

The closer to 100% that we can get Y, the more accurate predictions and better able we are to measure our concern about COVID-19 as it compares to things we've seen before. We can't do that until enough tests are available that we can test of demand. In the mean time, we take less efficient precautions like hunkering down.

 

[marcusorelius]

Well,  Mohave county has the 1st confirmed case. A man in Lake Havasu city. Kinda suprized it took this long as we are close to Las Vegas and are right on interstate 40.

 

[RossKean]

Grade school math. The numerator is the number of fatalities (for this discussion). To keep that "real" we need to have the best denominator we can achieve

Agree!  The denominator is elusive and the current testing regimen is not going to give you the right number - even by extrapolation.  We are not testing a whole population or even a statistically random proportion of the whole population - those we are testing are a subset that is heavily biased toward those who have a much higher probability of being infected.  In some areas, we are not even testing suspected cases if they appear to have mild symptoms and we have absolutely NO idea of the number of asymptomatic cases.  We also don't know what proportion of the population would get it if strict measures are not undertaken.

I am not trying to be critical of the process since it is the only possibility right now with insufficient test kits, personnel, and PPE.  We will only get a real idea of the infection rate (and the proportion of fatalities) once a completely random series of tests can be done for the presence of antibodies in the whole population.  Sometime after the pandemic has died down and before a vaccine is in use (vaccine will induce antibodies without the disease).

I think it is safe to say that the real level of infection is MUCH higher than the number of reported cases.  As such, the mortality rate estimates may be too high.  EXCEPT for the fact that we cannot compare deaths to current infections since infections are growing exponentially.  You have to look at the mean time between detection and death and look at the number cases that were detected at that time, not the number today.  Current doubling time for detected cases in the US is around three days!

In my opinion, medical facilities will be overwhelmed in at least some areas and there will be a very large number of fatalities if this cannot be stopped.

 

[Brodie]

I sure hope this Social Pandemic blows over soon before many more lives are destroyed.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

 (snip)

Brodie

For those who read that above article…

I did you a disservice, and for that I apologise. 
I’ve been schooled by my Veterinarian daughter. Her schooling requires her staying on top of this stuff, and the above article that I linked to turns out to be false and dangerous by the way the data was manipulated to support an agenda. It’s unfortunate how articles like that get spread about by well intentioned, but ignorant people like me. Come to think of it, that’s why her mother and I sent her to school in the first place – for her to make better informed judgements concerning these important things in life. 

The following link is for your enjoyment. I make no guarantees on the validity of the author’s arguments, nor his credentials, but grab some popcorn, he does do a great job eviscerating that bogus article. 
Just remember... I GOT IT OFF THE INTERNET SO IT MUST BE TRUE !

Stay healthy my friends!
 

Enjoy...

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/22/1930164/-Biologist-critiques-pseudo-scientific-right-wing-article-about-spread-of-Coronavirus

Brodie

 

[RossKean]

For those who read that above article…

I did you a disservice, and for that I apologise.

Everyone on the internet is an expert!

I'm glad you posted your follow-up.  Articles like the original one become "fact" for a lot of people and can be incredibly harmful.  Sort of like the anti-vaccination crowd led by celebrities who obviously are qualified.

There are a bunch of conspiracy theory, medical mumbo-jumbo, finger-pointing and just plain wrong articles out there and I would encourage anyone to consider the ramifications of reposting these.

While I would sincerely like to believe that this will blow over quickly with little or no intervention, I fear that is not reality.  Having it last LONGER will ultimately save lives because there is at least a faint hope that the medical system will be able to deal with most of the acute cases where intervention could make the difference between life and death for hundreds of thousands.

The apparent number of cases is doubling every three days in the US and the number is woefully underestimated.  Only serious cases are being tested for the most part, test results are taking up to a week to come back and infected but (currently) asymptomatic individuals are not being counted.  Death rate is currently around 250 per day.  Logically, the daily death rate will also double at a similar rate as the virus so we could easily be looking at 20,000 per day in three weeks if things aren't reigned in pretty soon.  Even if there were no new cases, death rate will continue to rise for some time because of acute illnesses currently in the pipeline.

Try to stay healthy!  Self-isolate, practice proper hygiene and take this seriously!

 

[Pterodactyl]

The only real solution is to avoid reading or watching reports about the whatchamacallit and only take your health advice from motorcycle forums.

 

[harper]

The only real solution is to avoid reading or watching reports about the whatchamacallit and only take your health advice from motorcycle forums.

That's what I've been doing and I'm still healthy. But I've been voting strangely as of late. I wonder if that's related.

 

[FJRay]

That's what I've been doing and I'm still healthy. But I've been voting strangely as of late. I wonder if that's related.

Based on your geographic location, Strange is normal isn't it. Yer just a sick puppy. unk: :jester:  

 

[RossKean]

Some well-balanced articles on Coronavirus:

https://naturecanada.ca/news/blog/top-11-articles-on-what-we-can-expect-from-the-coronavirus/

Please take with a grain of salt - this is the internet.

I found "The Hammer and the Dance" to be a fairly lengthy but interesting read.  Whether entirely correct or not, it seems to be a well thought out narrative.  I plan to read some of the others tonight.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

[exskibum]

Saw this yesterday on local media; today I came across it on national media in a format I could copy and paste. Pretty objective video presentation (free of political content, I believe) by a thoracic surgeon of what this virus does to the lungs and why it is so dangerous: 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/health/covid-19-lung-damage-video/index.html 

(In case anyone is considering contracting COVID-19, toughing it out and developing antibodies/immunity.) 

 

[dcarver]

Hi Everyone,

Found this excellent video on safe food handling during the COVID-19 crisis. Having worked most of my career in nuclear power, where containment and control of loose nuclear contamination is critical, I fully endorse the good Doctors techniques for safe handling of groceries and fast food.

Once again, please view, incorporate into your life these techniques, and most importantly, share with folks you know.
 

 

[Brodie]

Thanks Don, that’s a good video with practical advice to stay safe by. 
well worth sharing. 
 

 Brodie

 

[SacramentoMike]

But isn't that FJRay?

 

[FJRay]

You offend me Mike. I'm much better looking than that guy.