FJRForum Official 2015 Iron Butt Rally Tracking/Analysis thread

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Plenty of smaller obscure parks which are much easier to get in and out of and which would be virtually deserted.
Great observation! None of us have the actual packet and maybe they've included deeper level bonuses beyond "National Park" or "National Monument". What if that packet are contains "National Historic Sites", "National Memorials", "National Landmarks" or levels deeper? If so, the notion that those rogue riders could be alternative riders striking out on their own for less congested and easier in/out points.

The report also said that Phil and Josh went to Big Bend, but I've only been seeing one SPOT down there, one appears to still be south of I-10...
I mentioned it earlier in the forum, but I believe they are encouraged or given points to provide staff GPS tracking, but NOT required to put it up on the aggregate page we're seeing. In fact, I see 87 entries on the Day -1 list and 81 or 82 on the aggregate page. That suggests 5 or 6 that are not.

If we learned anything from the 2007 rally, riders that don't want to be followed by others may take steps to run dark.
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You get the eastern stuff on the way to and from TN.
Or do you? I've been thinking about the concept that point values change between legs and would then wonder how you as a rider predict how that's going to turn out later. I gotta think in this first day it would make me feel like a rat in a maze...a mere puppet on the strings of our favorite gasoline guru.....which is what that big mass of orange markers looks like to me North and West of ABQ.

Could those stray riders eschewing their comrades suspect, divine, gamble, or KNOW something? Chris' addendum is even more interesting. Hmmmm....

I think the Friday morning dispatch when Leg 2 starts and Leg 1 standings are published--is going to be interesting.
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It just struck me that for those of us who have not yet done the IBA 50/25 Parks Challenge, this IBR is going to provide some really excellent guidance!
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For those that have not done the NPT, I highly recommend it. That was my favorite Cert Ride. It would be very hard to do in Rally Mode though, too much to see and no time to see it.

 
That white BMW GS followed by the black scooter near the end both went North on Louisiana while everyone else followed the escort to the freeway and went south. I wondered what that was about, I guess we'll see eventually.
Those were the Lahman's. Maybe they went to go snag something from their RV?
They got mentioned in the addendum to yesterday's report.

 
This morning the first three private spots I checked are within 50 miles of each other, all on the I-15 corridor north of SLC. Some are aimed at Golden Spike NM or perhaps Promontory Point. Then I looked at the overall map, and there's a big freight train headed north up I-15. Seems to be some "conventional wisdom" in play.

 
This picture and title on FB just made me laugh!

Inside the Iron Butt Rally Command Post. We've always been told that the behind-the-scenes is a very busy place at the IBR....staffers at their computers constantly monitoring the rally. We stopped by the center for a peek.
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I'll be gone this morning. Coincidentally (I swear!), I'm headed to visit the Manhattan Project National Historical Park. I'm one of the people involved in helping add this brand new park to the list of places people can go ride to and visit....hopefully in the next year or two. One of the three major parts, Hanford, is in the community I (and Warchild) live and also coincidentally going to be flying to ABQ next week for a visit to the Los Alamos (Ira's place) and our counterparts.

It's a huge treat to be involved in the creation of a "National Historical Park". I'm taking my camera and will bring back some pictures.
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I showed that picture from FB to my wife and she actually asked if it was real! Too funny.

 
<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="bwoodsom" data-cid="1241231" data-time="1435674512"><p>

Are the participants allowed to view the public spot page?</p></blockquote>

Yes.

It's also entertaining to try and figure out which one you are when a mass is headed down the interstate.

 
Kitty, I may very well be wrong, but I think the flags are there. Appears to be two or three couples, where there is one flag for the pair. But perhaps I am missing something at this early hour.
There is clearly at least one rider (back row, middle of picture) who's flag is not visible. Ouch.

 
Kitty, I may very well be wrong, but I think the flags are there. Appears to be two or three couples, where there is one flag for the pair. But perhaps I am missing something at this early hour.
There is clearly at least one rider (back row, middle of picture) who's flag is not visible. Ouch.
I believe some are two up. This may be the cause.

 
There's another who isn't displaying his full number. That won't be accepted me thinks... shame. He was clearly there. But the instructions are also clear :(

 
Rambling observations so far...

A little background for the readers on my personal context. I've run the IBR in 2011 and 2013. Was suppose to this year but job and financial considerations forced me to drop out 6 months ago. A decision that was even tougher than the one to enter the IBR in the first place! Which now puts me in the interesting situation of being on the outside looking in, but with a bit of insider knowledge about this years event.

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I am lovin' this format. 50parks+25states and your a finisher irregardless of the points. but points are still their to allow the big dogs and such to push themselves and show their stuff.

In 2011 the format was all 50 states to be a finisher, visit some capitols for extra points. I thought that was awesome format. But it did lead to a couple interesting outcomes.
1) Much lower than usual number of DNF's.
2) because of geography and the rally format once you got to the last day and you've collected all the points/capitals you can, Anything else to get a few extra points was too far away. As such a lot of riders rode into the final checkpoint considerably early. (I myself rolled in around 2am, we had to 10am).

Prediction -- With this years 50+25 format there is a slightly higher level of complexity for the riders to try and remember than 2011. I think we will be seeing a higher level of DNF's than in 2011 but likely lower than other "regular" IBR years.

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Also mentioned in passing by another poster in this thread was the consideration of high LEO presence in certain states. I dont want to say anything I shouldn't. But let me say that combining what I know of the 2015 rules and noting the exchange at the end of the Day 1 report between Lisa and Tom I would suggest that the riders are not just concerned about LEO's. (Interpret that as you will
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The sole rider who is off in Big Bend Texas. Some people have commented about what he's doing out there. Let me just say that not all riders are driven by the same instincts as each other or even as the armchair quarterbacks out there.

Even for myself in the 2 IBR's I've run I had never considered myself a big dawg top 10 contender and would (on occasion) make decisions that are based a little more on emotion than raw points. I've looked at the route books presented on each leg and have at times made decisions based on the facts such as:
A ) That looks cool I'd love to go there or I've never been there.

B ) I am tired of riding through <blank> is there anywhere else I can ride?
C ) Its going to rain that way in the next few days, I think I will go this way instead.
D ) I have been there and know those roads like the back of my hands. Hmmmmm that feels like a home court advantage.

Example: 1st leg of 2013 I chose a loop that was heavily Ontario centric. Having grown up in the greater Toronto area meant I learned to ride on many of the roads I travelled. I could have done that first leg without a GPS or even a paper map!

In fact one bonus (the Auto museum in Oshawa) was literally where I grew up. Went to the museum as a school trip when I was growing up. Ironically one of the more enjoyable legs of the IBR's I've ridden ended up being that leg.

Another bonus was a nothing little thing about 1/2 hour from the Auto museum bonus but in a weird kind of way it ended up being a rather poignant moment for me. My first bike was 1978 DT175 Enduro when I was 18 or so. I spent the summer riding the back roads north out of town up to the sand pits and forests which is where I really learned to ride. Well, half way up to the trails there was this little old farm building under a couple trees. There was a historical plaque and a couple antique carriages inside. Would often stop there in the shade to take a break on the way up to the trails or on the way back. Then life went on and I moved away and made a life for myself elsewhere. Well wouldn't you know it but that location was an actual bonus location in 2013! 25 years ago I was riding a 175cc dirt bike for an afternoon and coming home dusty and tired. Now I was running a 1300cc supersport and crossing continents in a week. The bonus meant nothing to everyone else in the rally, but it did mean alot to me.

Back to the rider in Big Bend Texas. Been there a few years back. Would love to get back there again. Big wide open spaces (even by Texas standards). Get out there and you have the road to yourself. No traffic, RV's or other crap to ruin your vibe. (And those that are out there are probably booking along at 80+ themselves) Plus some spectacular scenery. Of all the riders out there on Leg 1 at the moment I think I am most envious of that one at the moment.

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And for all the keyboard pilots out there constantly refreshing their browsers for the next tidbit of info. May I suggest going to ironbuttrally.com and reading the reports from any one of the past years for a while. Perhaps your following a rider thats ridden in other years, so go back and read (or re-read) the reports from that year. Its all good stuff....

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- Colin

 
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Another bonus was a nothing little thing about 1/2 hour from the Auto museum bonus but in a weird kind of way it ended up being a rather poignant moment for me. My first bike was 1978 DT175 Enduro when I was 18 or so. I spent the summer riding the back roads north out of town up to the sand pits and forests which is where I really learned to ride. Well, half way up to the trails there was this little old farm building under a couple trees. There was a historical plaque and a couple antique carriages inside. Would often stop there in the shade to take a break on the way up to the trails or on the way back. Then life went on and I moved away and made a life for myself elsewhere. Well wouldn't you know it but that location was an actual bonus location in 2013! 25 years ago I was riding a 175cc dirt bike for an afternoon and coming home dusty and tired. Now I was running a 1300cc supersport and crossing continents in a week. The bonus meant nothing to everyone else in the rally, but it did mean alot to me.

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- Colin
Great stuff there Colin! I miss those types of interesting/unique/oddball bonus locations. For me, that is the best part of rallying - going to spots that I would never have known about or gone too otherwise and finding something wonderful. I know that the 50 states and capitals IBR was a tremendous disappointment and a bore for many of the participants. This IBR will at least get the riders off the interstates.

There also seems to have been a reduction in the importance of reading comprehension. Sure, someone may miss a state or confuse a time zone, but true tests of comprehension that let a rally bastard cackle seem to be missing. My favorite example is from a Butt Lite some time back - the instructions required a photo of a giant bat in Loisville - if you followed the directions in the bonus description you arrived at a costume shop with a giant bat on the wall, but a couple of blocks before that you rode past the Louisville Slugger giant baseball bat statue. That cackling noise at the scoring table was the rally bastard gleefully celebrating each picture of the baseball bat.

Kevin

 
I'm trying to figure out why there is still a rider in Big Bend. That's a day ride from Albuquerque. He should have been out of there hours ago. Again, I'm thinking he knows something we don't.

 
Rambling observations so far...
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I am lovin' this format. 50parks+25states and your a finisher irregardless of the points. but points are still their to allow the big dogs and such to push themselves and show their stuff.

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Colin, put me on the list agreeing with you. This is the best I've seen.

An easy to understand basic criteria to finish: (note I did *not* say easy to ride)

- 25 states

- 50NP's with many to choose from

That is the baseline.

Big states in the west with many NP's …probably worth strong points(?) ..but riders will have to ride away from easy points to gather enough states.

Daylight only criteria combined with mandatory rest bonuses (I'm assuming both) adds another complexity to the infinite time/distance calks that riders are going through.

Bonuses available on multiple legs, perhaps they can even be claimed multiple times(?) …and to continue my guessing I'd wager that point values on bonuses will change(?).

I love the clean sharp criteria, I applaud that there are (seemingly?) no complex threads, --> instead a clean puzzle that can be as complex as your mind allows. Riders have a wide canvas and plenty of paint to create their own masterpiece. It's going to be fun to follow.

RJ

 
I'm trying to figure out why there is still a rider in Big Bend. That's a day ride from Albuquerque. He should have been out of there hours ago. Again, I'm thinking he knows something we don't.
I'm thinking he is going for a land speed record for the I-10 to I-25 route to Albuquerque.

 
You probably mean to be funny, but I disagree. You have an entire year to do the NPT and it is so worth spending time in these wonderful places, that you'd be nuts to stamp and dash. At least watch the movie most parks have and browse the visitor's center. Spend some time on the back roads, etc. These rider ain't doing any of that!
Spoken like a "back east" stamp collector. Out west they are so far apart that collecting the required numbers on free weekends means long, hard rides with little time to dally.

 
I'm trying to figure out why there is still a rider in Big Bend. That's a day ride from Albuquerque. He should have been out of there hours ago. Again, I'm thinking he knows something we don't.
He is actually in Del Rio not Big Bend any longer...just don't know why! :-\ That stretch of I-10 is 80 mph speed limit. The trucks run 80 and everyone else is pushing a ton.

 
Looking at the group pic, I would hope everyone would get the points. It seems to me that they are all identifiable, especially since every rider had to check in. The powers that be know who is supposed to be there and should be able to deduce the owner of a single partially obscured number pretty easily. Not only that, but it seems like if the rider was making every effort to keep the flag flat and readable it would become the photographer's responsibility to say, "Hey, #792, your number is partially blocked from this vantage point." That being said, I wouldn't want to be the person stressing for the next two days over whether that cut the mustard.
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