FJRForum Official 2015 Iron Butt Rally Tracking/Analysis thread

[HotRodZilla]

Josh, Brant, and Tony each gained ground this leg. Tony went from 32nd to 29th. Brant went from 13th (I think) to 7th. A respectable jump. And Josh moved from 2nd to first. Not much of a jump (haha), but the one that is the most important.

All of them are pulling well, considering I don't think Tony pulled any bonus points yesterday due to his GPS issues.

I'm hoping all finish, and I don't care where Al Holtsberry finishes. I just want him to finish. If he sets this record, I'm thinking it will stand for a very long time!

Edit: One of these days I have got to stop posting from this stupid phone. It says whatever it wants, which is very seldom what I want. Lol...

 

[Ignacio]

This is priceless...

In other repair news, the oil leak on Chris McGaffin’s FJR turned out to be a deteriorated O-ring for the oil filler cap and has been fixed, much to the disappointment of many, many BMW riders who were hoping to take some of the focus off the tarnished roundel. Also, as a correction from the last report, McGaffin’s FJR is not a high mileage bike as initially reported.

Ha, I knew that wasn't Rick Martin's FJR.................................. too clean.

And there are even some parts from my low mileage '05 in that unit....at least the front subframe.

 

[Twigg]

There is an interesting split between those who already have lots of States, and those who have lots of Parks. The Parks carry the points but requiring the States is the constraint on routing in the 3rd Leg.

From my armchair, I'm thinking those with the States are handily placed right now because they can treat the 3rd Leg as a traditional rally and simply go for the high points. In this Leg the points are higher anyway and there could be big movements in positions.

I like the format of this one. For so many, getting "Finisher" status in the IBR is an important factor, final standing is secondary. There is something for everyone here and Austin is to be congratulated, as are all the staff and volunteers ... and spectators who leave helpful notes and messages of encouragement.

A small personal anecdote of just how helpful the support can be:

When I hit Illinois during my 48/10 I was about halfway round. It's a lonely road out there. Just you, the bike, the road ... maybe radio for entertainment, but you develop a tunnel vision where the world outside of your experience almost ceases to exist. At times this can be exhilarating, but often it is lonely, cut-off.

I had been invited to stay with a friend who I knew only from online messaging, etc. He had been keeping a careful eye on my progress and feeding helpful information to my wife too. I had declined the offer because of time constraints, but as I rolled into my gas stop I was wondering if he would be there. A little human contact at that point would have been so very welcome.

There was no one but regular customers as I filled the gas tank then moved the bike to the front of the store to take a short break. Then a truck pulled up next to me and a grinning Kevin was in the driver's seat. It's hard to explain the overwhelming sense of gratitude I felt for this stranger who had followed my SPot for days, then climbed into his truck to intercept a guy he didn't know, just to buy him supper.

It is true that LD Riders have to focus on the task in hand, and that interference can be distracting. On the other hand, all it sometimes takes is a friendly face, or a note left on a motorcycle in a dark parking lot late at night, to help a rider remember that there is a world out there, and that world is wishing them a successful trip.

 

[Ignacio]

I don't care where AL Holtsberry finishes. I just want him to finish. If he sets this record, I'm thinking it will stand for a very long time!

Or until Al runs it again in two years and ups the bar even further. I'm not sure this is his last.

Josh, Brant, and Tony each gained ground this leg. Tony went from 32nd to 29th. Brant went from 13th (I think) to 7th. A respectable jump. And Josh moved from 2nd to first. Not much of a jump (haha), but the one that is the most important.

And I'd note that although Erik Lipps dropped from 3rd to 7th I think he recognized a couple of mistakes he made, got to the CP intentionally early to get some extra rest for the final leg, and is well positioned with more states than anybody else in the Top 10. If state count is a factor in this (and the fact they display it prominently along with NP count in the standings list suggests it is) that should give him some flexibility to go after higher point bonuses without having to worry as much which state they're bagging.

And I have to reshare an anecdote about Chris McGaffin from 2007. It was his first IBR and first time in the United States.....he knew New York and LA were on other sides of the country, but said he was a little unsure about where all the states were.

He says in his Irish lilt as he's trying to puzzle out a route, "Matt. Help me out. Is Nevada near New Jersey?"

I looked at him, remained silently stunned, and blinked wide-eyed several times.

He said, "It's across the bleatin' country isn't it?"

I said, "Not all the way, but it's pretty far...."

Unfortunately he DNF'ed but took it all in stride saying at the end banquet, "Maybe it's because I'm from Ireland where a full lap of the country is a little less than 1,000 miles. I didn't realize how big the U.S. is. I thought it was about the size of the original 13 colonies." We bought him several drinks.

He came back in 2009 after some of us shared a grade school website where you had to drag the state shape into the right spot and reported when we asked about his geography readiness, "I'm a little iffy on where the Dakotas are compared to Minnesota and Nebraska, but I know none of them are anywhere near Mississippi."

He finished '09 firmly in the middle. And, maybe it was also because Rick loaned him an FJR and he reported, "They go a lot faster than rental Goldwings."

I'm crossing my fingers for Perry Karsten. He's persistent, patient, had some bad luck over the years, and is due a better finish. Go Perry!

And Josh? Oh....my....gawd! He's a frickin' animal!

 

[Bionic Pelvis]

Thanks Twigg - My thoughts exactly. Except my thoughts also had a crying baby and a handful of customers mixed in there real good too. After several unsuccessful attempts at extricating those ideas and transplanting them to the screen, you did the job for me

To expound: As you said, all your states/parks out of the way is a great idea because you can treat Leg 3 like a "normal" rally. On the other hand, in order to claim a bonus you are necessarily also visiting a state. Where the "normal" rally approach will be beneficial is if all the big points are in states you've already visited, so by having collected all 25 states you won't have to go out of your way just to nail down states. But if big points are in Maine and you're collecting 12 new states on the way to big points anyhow... The states themselves don't earn any points, and there probably isn't anything beyond bragging rights for being to rider to visit the most states. Jim Owen has 52 parks and only 13 states, but I don't foresee him falling too far in the rankings. On the other hand I have a hard time seeing Craig Brooks, currently in 25th place with 57 parks and 25 states, finishing outside of the Top Ten.

Then again, we're discussing strategy. In looking at our current top rider, obviously there is something to be said for brute force.

But we've also heard that several riders have had penalties assessed and those penalties won't show up until the end. Likewise with any riders who have switched bike, so there's still a little room for surprises. Only time will tell!

 

[RenoJohn]

~snip great wisdom by Wendy worth reading 3.14 times! ~/snip~.... But we've also heard that several riders have had penalties assessed, supposedly for excessive speed, and those penalties won't show up until the end. ~snip~ so there's still a little room for surprises...~/snip~

lots of things in the mix. ..and to piggyback on Twiggster and Iggster the dynamics are fascinating. I think anyone below aprox 17 states will have vastly different plans than the others who are around 20sates. Lipps, at 19 ..the balance should come naturally I'd guess.
Not sure where the generic "comfort level" for park count lies?, but I'd guess anything below 35 is not ideal if points are the goal.

Not knowing what or where they points are, It'll be interesting to watch riders like Beaulac who needs 11 states ..VS riders who only need a handful.

*** I guess the punchline Q: "are there big points in the NE?" ...where riders can get both points and states? I'd guess probably not.

--

Wendy, bring that baby to Reno, ...you're welcome to come too. RJ

 

[BritRider]

And watch out for Paul Slaton in 12 place. 20 states and 40 parks.

 

[RideToEat]

Here you go:

GPX: https://RideToEat.com/ibr2015/IBR2015Bonii.gpx *

Not be a n00b or even a b00b but how does one save this so that I can open it in basecamp? when I go to save it it is saved as a .txt file and not a gpx?

Select the folder or list where you want the data to be stored (let's assume it's named "IBR"). Then either press CTL-i or click on the File menu and select "Import into 'IBR'".

That will bring up an import file dialog box where you point it to the file. You don't need to download the file first, you can just put "https://ridetoeat.com/ibr2015/IBR2015Bonii.gpx" into the File Name field and it will go get it for you if your interwebs connection is working.

 

[RenoJohn]

And watch out for Paul Slaton in 12 place. 20 states and 40 parks.

Ya, what you said.There was mention of MoBob going from 26 to 14

*****but not Slaton going from 25 to 12 ...and as you say 20 states.

BMR riders know Paul can light up the leaderboard ...he put over 40K miles in BMR15

.....plus he's on a Honda so there's that edge as well.

 

[dudeckp]

This is priceless...

In other repair news, the oil leak on Chris McGaffin’s FJR turned out to be a deteriorated O-ring for the oil filler cap and has been fixed, much to the disappointment of many, many BMW riders who were hoping to take some of the focus off the tarnished roundel. Also, as a correction from the last report, McGaffin’s FJR is not a high mileage bike as initially reported.

Ha, I knew that wasn't Rick Martin's FJR.................................. too clean.

And there are even some parts from my low mileage '05 in that unit....at least the front subframe.

So, that's who got the stay!

 

[Go Far]

Bill-

I do love your avatar!

I miss her!

Give us your commentary on the finish if you get a chance

 

[Warchild]

OK, folks.... a little gentle reminder... NEW RULE!!!

I want to implore each and every one of you: please DO NOT discuss any aspect of rider speeds in this thread.

I say again.... DO NOT DISCUSS SPEEDS!

It should not take a rocket scientist to understand the motivation behind this rule. This particular IBR forum thread is free and open to the public. Including a ****-ton of people who *know* that FJRForum.com is a major and significant clearinghouse of IBR knowledge/happenings, so you can assume every insurance adjuster on the planet is reading this thread.

Protect our riders.

Protect the future ability of FJRForum.com to deliver the "IBR - Inside Scoop" thread during every Iron Butt Rally.

Be prudent in what you say.... don't force the Forum Management to make difficult decisions regarding a wayward post.

You peeps are smart enough to read between the lines here... 'nuff said!

 

[Tyler]

And watch out for Paul Slaton in 12 place. 20 states and 40 parks.

He had a great second leg and moved up from 25th to 12th... nice jump! B)

 

[velvet fog]

Miles Parks States

Leader:

Joshua Mountain 7,595 50 16

I like these two guys.

Eric Bray 6,561 46 17

Brant Moteelall 6,323 43 17

They have enough parks and states to allow generous routing strategies and have ridden about 1100-1300 miles less than the leader.

 

[Ignacio]

In 2005 when I was staff for the IBR there was a shirt one of the Minnesota Boys/Wrecking Crew/Team Strange wore that has long informed me about some basic riding styles of IBR riders.

The shirt boldly proclaimed in giant letters, "Ride harder, not smarter!" And Mark did exactly that too....highest mileage rider of the event and placed 4th.

As the IBR has evolved it's generally tried (and with significant success) to reward riders that do it smarter over piling on just miles. And one of those measures that's not on the spreadsheet the IBR provides that's very interesting is to divide points received by miles ridden. Points per mile is a great indicator of how efficient a rider is.

Here's the Top 12 in efficiency (with position noted):

1) Eric Jewell - 6.93 (#2)

2) Rod Schween - 6.86 (#3)

3) Bob Bowman - 6.74 (#14)

4) Jeremy Loveall - 6.69 (#15)

5) Joshua Mountain - 6.66 (#1)

6) Brant Monteelall - 6.60 (#7)

7) Lynda Lahman 6.60 (#34)

8) Terri Lahman 6.49 (#35)

9) Andy Mackey - 6.41 (#19)

10) Eric Bray - 6.40 (#6)

11) Jim Orr - 6.36 (#9)

12) Jim Owen - 6.26 (#4)

To me that says Eric and Rod are both riding efficient routes that maximize points for effort and the fact they're also in Top 10 translates well. Brant is moving up on efficiency, and Eric Bray and the two Jims are tight in the mix as well..

It's possible there's still that larger strategy of fulfilling states to then be able to go after big point bonuses in the last leg (I'm still pulling for you Erik Lipps that had a rough leg for efficiency), but it's hard to dismiss the fact Josh is still pretty danged efficient at #5. Him piling on the miles just hammers that home with a top spot on the leader board. Being a physically fit specimen of a human being has gotta help too.

This rally may be a case of Josh winning and everybody else scrambling for 2nd place.

Regardless, I'd say Josh's shirt should say, "Ride REALLY hard...and pretty smart too!".

 

[eldouble]

That Warchild guy seems knda mean...

Miles

 

[SouthernCruizer]

That Warchild guy seems knda mean...
Miles

LOL...that quote may become a fixture here.

 

[Twigg]

That Warchild guy seems knda mean...
Miles

He does ... but then he goes and posts "happy holiday pics" all over the place, and ruins the image

 

[Ignacio]

That Warchild guy seems knda mean...
Miles

"Direct" is probably closer to the mark. He's also the principal reason you've gotten to use this place to watch big details of the IBR in the past three times. His announcement is exactly on the mark.

 

[Uncle Hud]

Ignacio posted: Or until Al runs it again in two years and ups the bar even further. I'm not sure this is his last.

Amen to that. I was in the parking area with our Canadian cousins who were chatting up Perry Karsten when Mr. Holtsberry pulled in to park his 2014. He was backing it in to a space, but uphill on an incline. I stepped over and offered to help push. He looked at me with a smirk, and said he'd be fine -- and he was.

He's got a hell of a lot of energy for an "older gentleman".

FWIW, Mr. Karsten looked as rested as us gapers.