FJRForum Official 2017 Iron Butt Rally Tracking/Analysis Thread

[Hello Kitty]

Yup, looked like at least 3 riders in Lemmon and a few others in the Dakotas were sleeping in a bit. Maybe know they'll easily reach or miss their personal goals and taking it easy, or maybe just too tired to wake up early...

For most, I believe it's a string/timing thing. They have time on their hands so are cooling their heels a little.

fix their hair, lipstick, you know

 

[Hello Kitty]

I'm pretty sure the salmon in Campbellton, NB was a bonus location for this rally.

It was also a bonus in 2007 (my first IBR) that DougC and I visited as a team...the rally before teaming became a thing. Beautiful day riding in French-speaking maritime provinces and one of my fondest memories...even if it took us a bit to find it. Those days we had to manually find bonuses and weren't provided dead on balls accurate GPS coordinates via thumb drives nor pictures of all bonuses in our packets....we had a few in grainy xeroxed black and white.

You're too young to be yelling at the kids to get off your lawn. It's a different time now, Matty Patty.

 

[08FJR4ME]

All i can say is this is going to be one hell of a finish,

 

[GearHeadGrrrl]

Wouldn't want to make a group photo op on a lonely ND 2 lane with a hair outa place and smudged lipstick...

 

[Blind Squirrel]

Seems to be a lot of injuries this IBR. Broken bones, get-offs, etc.

 

[GrayDog37]

I-94 is turning into a parade toward the East! Lots of tired sisters and brothers. Ride safe, my friends!

 

[hppants]

Holy Cow - there are quite a few out still over 1000 miles out. I don't know how they can presume to make it.

 

[Ignacio]

Holy Cow - there are quite a few out still over 1000 miles out. I don't know how they can presume to make it.

Some riders use the benchmark of a BBG for the final day....especially out west. If the hours left in the rally x 62.5 is equal or more than the miles you have left to get to the barn...it's doable.

21.5 (hours until 8 a.m. CDT) x 62.5 = 1343 miles. That's larger than 1000...so they're probably fine. Heck, they might even have another bonus or two to snag.

Those folks over on the right side of the screen are probably flirting a bit more with my rule-of-thumb, but pretty sure they mostly include towards the top of Leg 2 standings.

 

[FJR Flyer]

Could we assume this is the location of the group pic in Lemmon?

 

[Dan S]

How much "What If" do these riders, especially the Big Dogs, go through during their pre time before the IBR?
Example - They know that they will be leaving Dallas after 4 AM on July 2, and they need to be in the barn in Minneapolis at 8AM on Friday. Do they go through scenarios of what if there is a huge bonus in Newfoundland, or Key West or Alaska? Can I get there and back in the allotted time? What preplanning would they do to facilitate that? We've seen multiple riders use different ferries to get them where they needed to go. Would they have already reviewed the options and the processes for making reservations? Would they even make reservations just in case, and then have the option to cancel?

Other rallies including things like the BMR to get out early each season. You kinda end of knowing what kind of miles you can do in a day given typical rally bonus load and adjust a bit. If you're doing a one day rally it's all about sitting in the seat as much as possible including bagging bonuses and super efficient fuel stops. An eleven day rally is a marathon and if you do bigger miles one day you gotta pay for it with a bit more rest the next day.

You're always aware of how long it will take and how many miles to get to a CP or a the finish line, but you're also aware and playing "what-if" scenarios to squeeze in just one more bonus or rearrange something to net a few more points.

And you are are using time to Google things to refine bonus or arrival details (i.e. ferry reservations, what fuel stop up ahead has a gas station on the right near the freeway with a Subway attached, is there something weird about parking where you're going, etc.) And since online intelligence gathering is more important do you have it setup so it's easy to get to, easy-to-read on the fly, and can you do anything to make it safer to use while underway?

I'm not saying IBR personalities aren't risk takers, but I think they're very careful about measuring risk vs. reward and will build checklists and repeatable processes whenever possible. To watch Owen do a bonus stop is like watching Teller do a magic trick. The casual smile while his hands move and short amount of time he takes to pull it off is mesmerizing. You know he takes off one glove just before he starts to declerate for a bonus or fuel stop and pre-pops the tank and unzips the tank bag. Repeated over the course of eleven days might yield one more bonus.

Other things like EZ-Pass, convenient and quick methods for cleaning face shield, rally food, packing things so you can carry everything you need for a motel visit in one trip, etc. Each save a minute or two and incrementally add up to bagging.....just.....one.....more......bonus than the other rider. That one bonus that's a difference between #1 and #2 at this level.

And no doubt these guys are well traveled and are familiar with many of these places. I'm strictly an armchair spectator but in 2009 I rode to the finish with an experienced IBR rider and mentioned to him that the big dogs (headed for Gay Michigan could get stuck on the wrong side of the Portage draw bridge (not that that would be a huge delay). So Paul suggested that with that kind of familiarity with out of the way places that I should try the IBR. Well, I don't know that many places and I've no idea if Jim, Jeff, Erik, Chris and Chris had ever been to the Keweenaw Peninsula but I'm sure they have been to enough of these places to provide an edge.

I do know what it is like getting thru Chi town and feel sorry for any rally riders that fail to do that in the wee hours of the morning. Fortunately it's 6 hours from that mess to Minneaplolis so planning around it should be easy enough.

 

[reedg01]

At this point, I start looking at the outliers- how far away are they.

I do the same thing. What I figured out this year, was their lat and long are visible when you click on their Spot. So now, I keep a google maps tab open, with the hotel as the destination, and I can copy and paste from the rider's location on the Spot map into the starting point, and voila, there's a calculation of how long it would be to get back to the barn. It's not perfect, but I find it helpful, especially when I don't know the area where they are very well.

 

[Ignacio]

Well, I don't know that many places but I'm sure the big dogs know enough to provide an edge.

Here's a piece of color that illustrates your point:

In about 2008 or so I was talking to Jim Owen and he was asking where I was from and we literally got down to the level that I was describing the I-182 exit I lived near. He KNEW my exit number and nailed the details like, "The exit right after the Columbia River" and knew the exit number.

I live one mile from that exit and I don't know the number. Jim lives 2500 miles from me and knows my exit number! That's a different brain right there....

And yes IBR riders (particularly those that finish multiple ones) do build up course knowledge. I know, for example:

• highway mileage markers between Provo and Price, Utah are particularly inconsistent
• that the south edge of the north rim of the Grand Canyon is 211 miles from the north edge of the south rim of the Grand Canyon through completely missing a bonus in 2009
• the four state corners monument is not actually at the actual geographic surveyed location
• riding through Glacier National park at 2 a.m. is FAR faster than during the day but I have never actually seen any of the views after riding through three times during the dark
• the exit number on the east side of Nebraska I-80 is 454
• if you do ride across Nebraska that the radar source at the arch at Great Platte isn't actually a cop...and that arch is the ONLY reason you don't cut your wrists for traveling I-80 across Nebraska
• 56/412 from Dodge City, Kansas to Clayton, NM is a horrible road to ride in the afternoon and evening of summers as you're headed directly into the sun for 200 sunburning miles.
• If you find yourself cruising Chicago to Tulsa in the wee hours of the last night of a rally....it is REALLY confusing to go by Springfield twice. It makes you think you've taken a wrong turn.

 

[Hello Kitty]

Could we assume this is the location of the group pic in Lemmon?

Pretty sure the group photo was not in Lemmon, but a lot of riders spent the night there. I'm having trouble figuring out exactly where it was though. Two riders who both told me they were going there never intersected.... And one turned around and headed back toward Lemmon. I dunno! I don't ask too many detailed questions when we speak, mostly chat about how they're doing, etc. Rally gossip, etc.

 

[JohnF]

At this point, I start looking at the outliers - how far away are they. There's someone in MA that is cutting it close for a direct route back. But I keep looking at the one near Quebec City right now. The spot is set to time zone Indianapolis. I fully realize that does not mean the rider is FROM that specific area, but that's the same time zone as one of the spots that went to NL. I have no way to know if it's the same person, but it is interesting to speculate. I went back and looked at the list of riders that was published, there's only one rider from IN - again, I know the time zone is of somewhat limited value, but I'm using the only clues I have. Tom Spearman. Don't know him. Anyone else? Think he'd pull that move? Think he can make it from where he's at now? so interesting!
Spoke to a couple riders this AM. Apparently, there is quite the gathering of riders in Lemmon, SD this morning

Tom dropped out of the rally after Leg 1

 

[JohnF]

RJ...where is your countdown timer?

 

[Warchild]

SIDEBAR 7 : DIFFICULTY, NAYSAYERS, EFFORT

https://ibr.wvi.com

 

[Biquer]

Sidebar 7, someone's not happy.

 

[Jehos]

Could we assume this is the location of the group pic in Lemmon?

Er...is a clockwork triceratops prehistoric or mythical?

Hopefully both for added opportunities for a string completion.

 

[08FJR4ME]

My hat is off to anyone that finishes or even attempts this insanity.

Dave

 

[Warchild]

So I am guessing the Group Photo was here... maybe....