I have to admit that I never thought I would ever see sub- $2.00 gasoline in American again. EVER.
I've been following the price of oil (almost daily) for decades. In my opinion, there seems to be little correlation between the price of a barrel of crude oil and the price of a retail gallon of gasoline. There are so many "reasons" (excuses) for the two not to correlate that any self-respecting scientists doing the research would simply throw the entire **** out of the window and start over. Supply and demand, seasonal refinery maintenance, hurricanes, tension in the middle east, taxes and fees, an industrial accident, the CEO of Fairy Dust, LLc cuts a large fart and ***** his pants..... you name it and the price of gas changes.
The rate at which retail gasoline falls is exponentially more slowly than the rate at which it rises, REGARDLESS of any other economic factor or external condition. That simply defies the basic laws of supply and demand.
If you look at two world-renowned commodity indexes, and compare even remotely linearly the Oil/Gasoline ratio 12 months ago to the same ratio today, we should be paying about $0.90 a gallon. Yet we are paying about $1.40 in south Louisiana. Fixed cost such as taxes and fees, which were proportionally less (compared to the total price) a year ago than today should make that comparison even greater.
Hmmmm?
My local and State world revolves around oil prices. Many of my friends are worried for their jobs. I know I need to play ball. But in the midst of a "crisis", when Exxon/Mobil post a $3 billion 2015 4th quarter profit, and an $11 Billion 2015 year profit (that's BILLION, a THOUSAND MILLIONS), me smells a real stinky rat.
Any more and I fear I will get a forum vacation, so I'll end my rant here.
Pants, as always you make good points. But I would pose this question to you: if the price of crude fell to $0.00 - free - what would the price of gasoline be? Right, the sum of taxes, refining, shipping, dispensing, other overhead and a profit margin. The cost of crude is only one component in the price of gasoline.
And yes, another principle of economics is that "prices are sticky downward" - they fall slower than they rise. This is businesses heading. Naturally they are reluctant to lower a price they have spent years raising, justifying and charging. Prices will go up like a rocket and fall like a feather. In either case, radical supply/demand/price fluctuations offer opportunities for someone to pad their margins. Here I think it is refiners and retailers.
Another valid point you make: Monopoly, or more accurately "oligopoly," in the oil industry indicates that a just a few large firms in the market can exert influence on supply and price; good for the companies, bad for consumers. Here in Montana we have one very large retail firm (Town Pump) that is so much larger than its competition that it is able to effectively set the retail price. When this firm changes its price, everyone else does too, but only to match it, never higher or lower. There is no true price competition in retail gasoline in Montana. You never see varying prices in any town, though the price may vary somewhat town-to-town. This is effectively price fixing though for sure the various company principals never sit down and discuss what the price will be; that would be highly illegal.
Don't get me wrong. I do not defend the forces outside pure market economics that influence the retail gasoline price. But they are real.
At this point the only thing at that could cause crude prices to recover rapidly, in my opinion, is an all-out Middle East war. Syria could be the catalyst. Plenty of companies (and national economies, i.e. Saudi Arabia) would reap huge new profits in that case. Is there now enough incentive?
BTW, today it is $1.67 here in Butte, America, down 5¢ from Wednesday. I saw $2.54 in Idaho City Wednesday and $2.01 in Boise, $1.87 in Mountain Home, ID. Why?