Bruce McCrary
Well-known member
Thought maybe some of you might find this sad, but interesting;
https://www.webbikeworld.com/Motorcycle-new...-statistics.htm
Bruce
https://www.webbikeworld.com/Motorcycle-new...-statistics.htm
Bruce
Industry Sales Stats
- Thread starter Bruce McCrary
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kenporider
Well-known member
The way I'm reading it, the manufacturing numbers are down to meet the anticipated reduction in sales. If anything Yamaha should be in a better financial situation by exceeding in their sales to production ratio.
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Bottom line to me is iffen they aint maken em they aint selling them. Not to fear though when the 2010 FJR1500 comes out they will be back on track. :glare:The way I'm reading it, the manufacturing numbers are down to meet the anticipated reduction in sales. If anything Yamaha should be in a better financial situation by exceeding in their sales to production ratio.
Bruce McCrary
Well-known member
From my point of view it's going to shake out into a loooong winter.
Traditionally cruisers and ATVs have fed the industry, our proverbial bread and butter. We could count on brisk sales in the spring and summer riding season on most anything and everything but the fall was dominated by ATVs and what kept us going as the leaves changed. In the last two years cruiser sales, like everything else, have gotten slower but ATV sales and the back side sales of accessories and service work have virtually stopped.
The fall of 2008 was almost eerie in how slow not only sales were, but floor traffic as well. Then Christmas wasn't any better. At this point it's easy to point the proverbial finger at a slowing economy and tightening credit but as I look ahead I get even more concerned. Many, many dealerships leveraged everything over the winter months of '08 and '09 trying to stay afloat and hoping for a strong spring and summer selling season that would pull them through. It obviously hasn't happened.
I'm afraid that what we're going to see going into the spring of 2010 is a heck of a lot less dealerships. Not only have most of the major OEM's been mumbling under their collective breaths about cutting back the number of franchises stores (Honda has said as much as 15%) but I see many folding as a result of the financial issues I previously mentioned.
On the one hand having fewer dealerships would be beneficial to the industry as a whole, I've said for years there are too many period and the territories are way to small for what the market realistically is. The factory's, in an effort to sell as many units as possible opened store after store allowing people to take ownership whose only real qualification was a financial one which has, IMHO, partially led to the derogation and consumer confidence of the motorcycle dealership as a whole. Gray beards will remember going to what we called a 'shop' and not what some now refer to as a 'stealership', those old school shops were run by knowledgeable enthusiasts that had a passion for the sport and not someone who got into the business because they saw all the bikes on the road and just knew there was money in it and who cut overhead by hiring minimum wage help that are laid off during the winter. Unfortunately, I'm afraid that the majority of those who survive into next year and beyond will not necessarily be the 'best' but those with the deepest pockets and the two are not mutually exclusive.
On the other hand, maybe the credit crunch will go away, high paying jobs will become plentiful and people will start buying high priced toys again.
But I'm not counting on it...
Bruce
Traditionally cruisers and ATVs have fed the industry, our proverbial bread and butter. We could count on brisk sales in the spring and summer riding season on most anything and everything but the fall was dominated by ATVs and what kept us going as the leaves changed. In the last two years cruiser sales, like everything else, have gotten slower but ATV sales and the back side sales of accessories and service work have virtually stopped.
The fall of 2008 was almost eerie in how slow not only sales were, but floor traffic as well. Then Christmas wasn't any better. At this point it's easy to point the proverbial finger at a slowing economy and tightening credit but as I look ahead I get even more concerned. Many, many dealerships leveraged everything over the winter months of '08 and '09 trying to stay afloat and hoping for a strong spring and summer selling season that would pull them through. It obviously hasn't happened.
I'm afraid that what we're going to see going into the spring of 2010 is a heck of a lot less dealerships. Not only have most of the major OEM's been mumbling under their collective breaths about cutting back the number of franchises stores (Honda has said as much as 15%) but I see many folding as a result of the financial issues I previously mentioned.
On the one hand having fewer dealerships would be beneficial to the industry as a whole, I've said for years there are too many period and the territories are way to small for what the market realistically is. The factory's, in an effort to sell as many units as possible opened store after store allowing people to take ownership whose only real qualification was a financial one which has, IMHO, partially led to the derogation and consumer confidence of the motorcycle dealership as a whole. Gray beards will remember going to what we called a 'shop' and not what some now refer to as a 'stealership', those old school shops were run by knowledgeable enthusiasts that had a passion for the sport and not someone who got into the business because they saw all the bikes on the road and just knew there was money in it and who cut overhead by hiring minimum wage help that are laid off during the winter. Unfortunately, I'm afraid that the majority of those who survive into next year and beyond will not necessarily be the 'best' but those with the deepest pockets and the two are not mutually exclusive.
On the other hand, maybe the credit crunch will go away, high paying jobs will become plentiful and people will start buying high priced toys again.
But I'm not counting on it...
Bruce
Interesting insight, Bruce. I take it that you are an industry insider?
I am a bit more optimistic overall. I think that the crappiest dealerships, the ones that depend primarily on cut-rate, one time sales and provide little in the way of services to the customer are the ones that will be hurting the most as the impulse toy buyers continue to stay away in droves.
I still believe there is a healthy amount of money to be made in the motorcycle industry for those with the passion and knowledge to provide good services. Weeding out the crappy stealerships should make it easier for those good "shops" to survive.
I am a bit more optimistic overall. I think that the crappiest dealerships, the ones that depend primarily on cut-rate, one time sales and provide little in the way of services to the customer are the ones that will be hurting the most as the impulse toy buyers continue to stay away in droves.
I still believe there is a healthy amount of money to be made in the motorcycle industry for those with the passion and knowledge to provide good services. Weeding out the crappy stealerships should make it easier for those good "shops" to survive.
charismaticmegafauna
Well-known member
My two 'local' dealers: Hon/Yam/Pol and Suz/Aprilia/Bomb have all the earmarks of going out-of-business. Last I looked, the doors were still open but they're primarily staffed by family and low-paid help. I think the end for them will be soon?
The shops' motorcycles, especially, seem to have 'taken root' on the show-room floor. I don't particularly pay any attention to ATV sales (just not interested -- but, they are what pays the bills); and there are alot of crates stacked out back (looks-like "Fort ATV").
Both dealers had sales 'booms' when gas prices soared. So, maybe the future of the industry will be more along the lines of 'practical' vehicles (as opposed to high-dollar play-toys)?
The shops' motorcycles, especially, seem to have 'taken root' on the show-room floor. I don't particularly pay any attention to ATV sales (just not interested -- but, they are what pays the bills); and there are alot of crates stacked out back (looks-like "Fort ATV").
Both dealers had sales 'booms' when gas prices soared. So, maybe the future of the industry will be more along the lines of 'practical' vehicles (as opposed to high-dollar play-toys)?
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happyPuppy
Well-known member
The big 4 in Japan will be OK, they have diversified portfolio's and while sales are down I think they will weather the storm. However I have serious doubts about HD. The net income is way down , and have had sizable cash infusions as well. The area of great concern is the lending arm has really hurt them and the V-Twin will have trouble with the future emissions standards. The faithful appear to not be embracing the V-Rod , which was a key to the new standards. What is with the senseless MV Agusta acquisition? I see no fit myself. https://www.motorcycle-usa.com/568/4065/Mot...ts-Planned.aspx
Crash Cash
Well-known member
Well, if you look at the sales graph 3/4ths of the way down the article, it's still a HELL of a lot better than 10 years ago... 875K+ vs. 425K or so.
Basically it seems to me that the boom is over, and things are settling down. Bikes have been a trendy fashion statement recently, and maybe the trend is fading.
And Harley... if they go out of business I won't cry at all, but there's as much chance of that as GM going out of business. The government has stepped in before to prop them up, like with the over-700cc import tariff back in the '80s. I don't think you'll find ANYBODY that understands the MV Agusta thing or thinks it's a good idea.
Basically it seems to me that the boom is over, and things are settling down. Bikes have been a trendy fashion statement recently, and maybe the trend is fading.
And Harley... if they go out of business I won't cry at all, but there's as much chance of that as GM going out of business. The government has stepped in before to prop them up, like with the over-700cc import tariff back in the '80s. I don't think you'll find ANYBODY that understands the MV Agusta thing or thinks it's a good idea.
charismaticmegafauna
Well-known member
H-D claimed (back then) that they needed U.S. Govt. tariff protection from the Japanese m/c manufacturers' predatory "dumping" practices -- and, Ronald Reagan agreed with them.
We all, non-Harley 'faithful', paid the bill.... :angry:
H-D once bought/owned Italian m/c company, Aermacchi -- and for a decade or so probably made a little money? Won some racing World Championships, too (of course, with bikes nothing like what the H-D 'faithful' would recognize....).
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Spud
Well-known member
Huh? In the most affluent consumerist country in the world?
Interesting stats, I love stats.
Looks like the economy has hit everyone. Notice how the sales mirrored the housing sales crisis.... Just sayin'
Thanks for the post.
Looks like the economy has hit everyone. Notice how the sales mirrored the housing sales crisis.... Just sayin'
Thanks for the post.
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Bruce McCrary
Well-known member
Ehhh... Been working in it for a little more than thirteen years, been making my living from it for a little over eleven. Hardly an 'insider' but I do love being in it. And while I am one of it's biggest fans I'm also one of it's biggest critics. "We" could be doing things a lot better, but...
Of course I hope your optimism and opinions are correct, but I'm a little jaded at this point and feel that the industry is headed full steam down a road that will change it forever. I see it in a similar situation to the automobile industry roughly twenty five years ago and feel like in ten years or less things will be more or less as they are now structurally in the car business. By that I mean that you will go to the dealer to buy your vehicle and they will primarily stock OEM parts and a handful of OEM accessories, but not much. Most people will go there to buy a vehicle and get warranty work done and thats about it. Along with that you'll see an increase in PG&A stores like Cycle Gear that will carry the aftermarket stuff and a few of those will venture into light mechanical work, installing accessories sold by them, oil and tire changes, etc.
I suppose it depends upon your definition of 'healthy'. Most of the people that get into it thinking along those same lines don't last very long once they realize that at best you'll make a living, at worse you'll lose your ass in grand fashion. As I said, I've been in it for thirteen plus years, in that length of time I've worked at four dealerships, under nine different owners. Of those nine only the second and the current ones had a clue about what they were doing. Two of the four have been sold twice since I left them, one of them no longer exists and in that case the OEM's have chosen not to pursue replacing it. "We're" not really weeding any out, "we're" just replacing them with others.
Passion, knowledge and great customer service go a long way no doubt. I'm excited to be where I'm at now because the owners and most of the employees are as passionate about the sport and the industry as I am. Which is a good thing. I just hope we can weather the financial storm and survive it. In todays financial climate passion and knowledge are second to deep pockets! *lol*
Bruce
Bruce McCrary
Well-known member
You hit the nail right on the head!
10 years ago the industry average of credit applications taken to those approved were roughly 5:1. Five years ago they were roughly 10:1. Right now it's closer to 20:1! And not every customer that walks through the door fills out an app! That's a whole lot of 'wheel spinning'.
Going back to ATVs... Most finance companies won't even consider writing them unless there the customer has an outstanding beacon score and/or there is a HUGE down payment involved. So the majority of ATV customers used credit or equity lines on their homes to secure the money needed.
That ain't happenin' anymore.
Then too consider the on-slaught of Korean, Taiwanese, etc (what I call "Charlie Wang's") ATVs, scooters and small displacement motorcycles that are flooding the market and cost half or less the price of anything the Japanese are marketing. Which is sorta ironic because those manufacturers are putting the "big four" in almost the same place they put companies like Triumph, Norton, BSA, etc in back in the 60's.
I'm just sayin'...
Bruce
In the short term, no doubt, that is true.
But we seem to agree that the cycle shops that will last for the long haul are those with the passion and knowledge to do it right.
Why not make a plug here for the shop you work in? I'm sure that folks in your area would like to hear about it if it's one of the "good guys"
Bruce McCrary
Well-known member
Spam free zone.
BTW, love your avatar! I just lost my female Great Dane, Roxie after 11 years. She was my girl and I miss her a bunch.
Bruce
