+1000...my reading indicates that no camouflage system can be 100% effective. My take away from my reading as it applies to being seen, is that I do not believe we can find a visibility solution that will work 100% of the time--even if we exclude oblivious drivers from the calculation.
In my option, if we come up with a combination of gear (lights, reflective/hi vis clothing, etc.) that yields 99.99% visibility, we should still ride like we are invisible.
Let's just say that we accept the OP's original premise as being completely true: When you are riding with a bright sun/sky behind you lights on your bike will make you less visible, to the point of being invisible to a casual observer.
You still have to consider, what percentage of the time is that the case? Those same lights clearly make you more visible when the sky behind you is not bright, and if the majority of your riding time is in that situation, doesn't it still make good sense to use them?
You could probably assign some statistics to arrive at percentages, but even if we just cut the possible encounter directions up into quadrants and say that any time you are approaching from the direction of the sun within a 90 degree arc sector (a generous allowance I would say), this still means there are 270 degrees that the lights would be beneficial to safety. The laws of random probability say that we should encounter other drivers from every angle at the same rate, so the lights would be 3 times as beneficial as they are detrimental. Still sounds like a good idea to use them, and also develop a heightened awareness when you are a rider with the sun at your back or a driver looking into the sun.
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