2011 IBR - The Inside View
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Warchild
Benevolent Dictator
Howdy, Steve - yes, the bonus listing for each Leg is typically posted toward the *end* of (or conclusion of) each leg.
I should be posting it on the IBR site sometime late tomorrow afternoon.
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Twigg
Just an old, bald man!
I have a question for the strategists ....
I have read and understand the reasoning behind the idea that Alaska and the Four Corners bonuses might be red-herrings. Here is what the Riders knew when they started:
Alaska gave a 4800 point bonus
48 States plus the Four Corners would be a Gold Medal Finish (did I read that right)
They also knew the State Capitol bonuses for the 1st Leg (which we don't yet).
In past Rallies, bonuses were ramped up in later legs.
Here is the issue I am struggling with:
Is it smart to presume that State Capitol bonii will be increased, given that a Gold Medal finish is possible with the 48 plus the Four Corners. Ramping up the bonii for later legs would work against the "high milers" in a Rally we know to be going back to a more basic format?
If Alaska is "doable", and it seems to be, then is there a real advantage in piling up a large early bonus, skipping the Four Corners, and sticking it to all the other riders by Buffalo ... "This is what we have already done, now get yer butts on yer bikes, and try to take it away from us" ... that's a lot of pressure.
If you then don't need Key West, you have some time to pick the higher rated Capitol Bonii on Legs two and three (if you have enough left in the tank).
I can see that Alaska might not work, but that would only be known after Leg one was completed, and then it could be a case of kicking yourself for NOT choosing Hyder.
I am asking here, not suggesting
I have read and understand the reasoning behind the idea that Alaska and the Four Corners bonuses might be red-herrings. Here is what the Riders knew when they started:
Alaska gave a 4800 point bonus
48 States plus the Four Corners would be a Gold Medal Finish (did I read that right)
They also knew the State Capitol bonuses for the 1st Leg (which we don't yet).
In past Rallies, bonuses were ramped up in later legs.
Here is the issue I am struggling with:
Is it smart to presume that State Capitol bonii will be increased, given that a Gold Medal finish is possible with the 48 plus the Four Corners. Ramping up the bonii for later legs would work against the "high milers" in a Rally we know to be going back to a more basic format?
If Alaska is "doable", and it seems to be, then is there a real advantage in piling up a large early bonus, skipping the Four Corners, and sticking it to all the other riders by Buffalo ... "This is what we have already done, now get yer butts on yer bikes, and try to take it away from us" ... that's a lot of pressure.
If you then don't need Key West, you have some time to pick the higher rated Capitol Bonii on Legs two and three (if you have enough left in the tank).
I can see that Alaska might not work, but that would only be known after Leg one was completed, and then it could be a case of kicking yourself for NOT choosing Hyder.
I am asking here, not suggesting
turbodave_98
TurboDave_98
This info is awesome, really great reporting. Have been faithfully watching it on this site since I left the start. I look forward to watching till the end and am fortunate enough to be there at the final check point. I am indeed fortunate. Thanks Dale and Jeff . Sure hope **** P. can make up lost time.
Warchild
Benevolent Dictator
Who 'Dat Mystery Rider? Who 'Dat? Who 'Dat?
I will (of course) not name this rider.... but this route is awesome!
The rider apparently scored Blaine, is apparently heading for Madawaska, and has scarfed up up several capitals along the way.... and the rider should be in Cheektowaga early enough to get well rested before the beginning of Leg 2.
Smart. Very smart. :thumbsupsmiley:
I will (of course) not name this rider.... but this route is awesome!
The rider apparently scored Blaine, is apparently heading for Madawaska, and has scarfed up up several capitals along the way.... and the rider should be in Cheektowaga early enough to get well rested before the beginning of Leg 2.
Smart. Very smart. :thumbsupsmiley:
wheatonFJR
...
Bob Lilley
Member
If I were a betting man, I'd say John *****, the IB5K winner....smart rider.Who 'Dat Mystery Rider? Who 'Dat? Who 'Dat?
I will (of course) not name this rider.... but this route is awesome!
The rider apparently scored Blaine, is apparently heading for Madawaska, and has scarfed up up several capitals along the way.... and the rider should be in Cheektowaga early enough to get well rested before the beginning of Leg 2.
Smart. Very smart. :thumbsupsmiley:
tmc
Ginger-Mex Extraordinaire
After looking at the map over and over again, I came to a similar conclusion - the best way to Madawaska was through Canada, EH! ANy bonuses for snagging Canadian captiols??
And looks like "rider 130" has taken an extended stay at a MickeyD's. I've said it before, free wi-fi (and free refills) are a powerful thing. LOL. No doubt he/she is looking at that WX pattern and thinking about what to do next.
And looks like "rider 130" has taken an extended stay at a MickeyD's. I've said it before, free wi-fi (and free refills) are a powerful thing. LOL. No doubt he/she is looking at that WX pattern and thinking about what to do next.
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mdisher
formerly Renegade, get used to it.
MDisher, I apologize. I mistakenly hit "edit" instead of "reply". I saved before I realized my mistake. I encourage you to update this post and replace the content with the original. I have no excuse other than aiming and hitting the wrong button when clicking. - Bounce
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Twigg
Just an old, bald man!
Gotcha .... So, with the Four Corners and Alaska both worth the same, then I could see how some riders who felt they could manage Alaska might want it in the bag, knowing that they then wouldn't have to fit Key West in later.My humble Arm-Chair strategy, still believes that the 4 Corners are must for a good finish. 4 Corners and good handful of capitols. If you had the balls to get Hyder and the 4 corners you're all but guaranteed a good finish, if you finish, and that seems to be the question.I have a question for the strategists ....
<snip>
I am asking here, not suggesting
Snip
This is way more fun than work.
There is the idea that it's easier to get out ahead, than it is to play "catch-up", but as others have said .... Go too fast out of the blocks and you can blow up in the run for home.
Time will, of course, tell, but I very much like the fact that there really isn't a clear cut answer.
tmc
Ginger-Mex Extraordinaire
MD - the only problem with that strategy is the unknown. If you put tons of your chips in one basket, and at the leg2 or leg3 bonii because much more valuable, the idea of blowing tons of time to do either Hyder or the 4 corners may prove to be fool's errands.
Although, in Meese's case, I think it might be some crazy *** winning strategy. Meese is f'in crazy.
Although, in Meese's case, I think it might be some crazy *** winning strategy. Meese is f'in crazy.
Twigg
Just an old, bald man!
lol ... They're all freakin' crazyMD - the only problem with that strategy is the unknown. If you put tons of your chips in one basket, and at the leg2 or leg3 bonii because much more valuable, the idea of blowing tons of time to do either Hyder or the 4 corners may prove to be fool's errands.
Although, in Meese's case, I think it might be some crazy *** winning strategy. Meese is f'in crazy.
So, if John Young on his Triumph can't win, don't we all want it to go to the guy who grabs hold of the Rally, and wrings it's neck?
Warchild
Benevolent Dictator
Must be the lunch hour... :lol:
:lol:
mdisher
formerly Renegade, get used to it.
I think the guys that went to Hyder are in a whole other 'class' if you will. Time will tell if they are hard cases, just f'n crazy or what.MD - the only problem with that strategy is the unknown. If you put tons of your chips in one basket, and at the leg2 or leg3 bonii because much more valuable, the idea of blowing tons of time to do either Hyder or the 4 corners may prove to be fool's errands.
Although, in Meese's case, I think it might be some crazy *** winning strategy. Meese is f'in crazy.
The four corners may very well prove out to be a bad idea, or simply sub-optimal, if the capitol points increase, I get that.
But at this stage, right now, looking at only the data we have, I still think they are a must. I would be planning to get them until the points changed that made them no longer worthy. It's clear to me Leg 3 is going to make or break a lot of people. Big miles to pick up some not so convenient states and/or capitols. Which can certainly make Key West impossible on leg 3. But I'd rather have the northern boni in my pocket.
I think.
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tmc
Ginger-Mex Extraordinaire
I dunno man, I think KM might be in a category all his own. He blew our doors off (well everyone but Ignacio) in the Cal24.
Some of the guys gave him a special present at the end. To the winner go the spoils!
He was at least a good sport about it!
Some of the guys gave him a special present at the end. To the winner go the spoils!
He was at least a good sport about it!
okaugust
Member
Lunch hour? I haven't done any real, actual work for three days. I have one employee who is sick so I asked her to please go home. Another asked to work remote and I said sure! Last one is at a dr's appt all afternoon.Must be the lunch hour...
Actually, I wanted them all to leave so they don't catch me in here reading updates all day.
Also, having done 1100 miles on an FZ in 21.5 hours, it's not so bad, I promise! Go Phil!
tmc
Ginger-Mex Extraordinaire
Hey, I'm eating a burrito right now. It's mmm mmm good!Must be the lunch hour...
LowAndSilent
Well-known member
Love the analysis going on.
Big thanks to Jeff, Dale and others on providing some background, "What I would have done"'s, tips and other useful knowledge. Really insightful. :clapping:
Big thanks to Jeff, Dale and others on providing some background, "What I would have done"'s, tips and other useful knowledge. Really insightful. :clapping:
bassplayer88
New member
Just going by the final score cards of the past rallies ( not always the winner)
01 -> George Barnes 13357
03 -> Mark Kieckler 12418
05 -> Mark Kieckler 13354
07 -> Marty Leir 12460
09 -> Lim Owens 12706
Hope that helps
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