2011 IBR - The Inside View

[Jaugie]

Here is a stoopit question

Are the bonus points set before the start of the rally and cast in stone or can the Rallymistress change things around at her leisure

 

[Warchild]

Looks like the Harley ridden by Darrin Hicks just shit the bed....

He is in Cedar Rapids, Iowa with some kind of electrical problem, waiting for the local dealer to pick him up....

 

[LDRiderJP]

MD - the only problem with that strategy is the unknown. If you put tons of your chips in one basket, and at the leg2 or leg3 bonii because much more valuable, the idea of blowing tons of time to do either Hyder or the 4 corners may prove to be fool's errands.

Although, in Meese's case, I think it might be some crazy ass winning strategy. Meese is f'in crazy.

A good example was the 2001 IBR. It was the first rally where there was a way to skip all the checkpoints if you wanted to ride straight to Alaska. Prudhoe Bay was worth 500,000 points. You didn't have to get to Prudhoe to skip the checkpoints but I think you had to at least get Denali or Fairbanks.

The kicker was that at the 2nd checkpoint in WA Prudhoe Bay was again offered but this time was worth 1,000,000 points and you could skip the ME checkpoint. The rally winner (Bob Hall) went to Prudhoe and made it back in time from the waiting and going to Prudhoe from WA. George Barnes and Eric Jewell tried but didn't make it back in time. In fact, they came in during the finisher's banquet straight from their bikes in their dirt covered Stich's and dirty faces. They received a standing ovation.

You never know what curve ball may be thrown.

Jeff Powell

2001 IBR

 

[airboss]

Just finnished a burger and fries, damn, greasy keyboard!

 

[SkooterG]

The rider apparently scored Blaine, is apparently heading for Madawaska, and has scarfed up up several capitals along the way.... and the rider should be in Cheektowaga early enough to get well rested before the beginning of Leg 2.

Interesting route. My problem with it is that the rider skipped a lot of capitals and a lot of points. Assuming he pulls off Madawaska, it will be interesting to see what points are available on legs 2 and 3 to make up for it. This route was one of my original plans, but I keep waffling. I'm not so sure this is best anymore. I need to see point values. In fact, I think there is a good chance I would have gone to Hyder, for better, or for worse.

I call this IBR the 'Gamble' rally. One way or another, if you want a podium finish you have to make a gamble based on what little you 'know' you have to do, what you 'know' is available, and what you 'don't know' might be coming.

Hyder is a gamble - great knock-out punch points on the first leg but at what cost? Does going there mean not getting many states that you are going to have to waste time obtaining on leg 3? Making it all but impossible to also obtain the 4-corners? And *possibly* high point capitals?. And at what cost to your overall level of fatigue?

4-corners is a gamble - Is it worth eating up the time to get those corners when that time may well be better spent on those yet unkown capital points on legs 2 and especially 3?

And of course the final gamble - that capital points will escalate in leg 2 and especially leg 3 making the 4800 points for Hyder and 4-corners not such a huge advantage.

Tough rally. In most past rallys, what you have to do for each leg is straight forward. It may not be simple, but you just need to worry about maximizing points for that leg. Not this one. You have all kinds of crazy scenarios to consider. Wish I would have been at that rider's meeting to see if any clues were given by rally staff. Also would really like to see Leg 1 points values. If you scarf up most of the high point capitals, how many points would that give you? 2000? 3000? 4000? 5000? More? What I would expect to accumulate on leg 1 and the assumption they are only going to get bigger in successive legs would really play into my decision making process for which 'gamble' I would take.

Right now I can't decide between the two I would most likely have taken, which is better - taking the risky Hyder destination and scarf up capitals on legs two and three? Or just go capital hunting on all legs?

I think they key to Hyder is getting Oregon, and many other states. If you leave a bunch for leg 3, you're screwed. Leaving too many states to get on leg 3 would kill you in getting the high point capitals. I am gambling that those 4800 Hyder points would quickly fade when all you are doing is trying to get states and not the high point capitals. If any of the current 3 make Buffalo, it will be VERY interesting to me what states they did and did not get. If possible, getting a few of the high point capitals on leg 1 would also be a very good insurance policy.

The other thing that is very different about this rally is the length of the legs. Leg 1 is the longest which is unusual. (104 hours leg 1 vs. 87 hours leg 3) Typically, a rider scores a LOT more points in leg 3 due to point values and because it is a longer leg. For example, in '09 I scored 15k points in leg 1 of 3, and a HUGE 71k points in leg 3 of 3. In '07 it was 90k points on leg 1/2, and a whopping 208k points on leg 2/2. With those kinds of differentials, a strategy of going all out on leg 1 doesn't make sense. You save yourself for the last leg - the 'make or break' leg.

Still, that in this rally the first leg is the longest has me befuddled a bit. Then toss in the Hyder and 4-corners bait.

My gut still says leg 3 will be 'make or break' and while Hyder and 4-corners may have an impact, they will not be as important as most think at this time. But that is *my gamble*. And a gamble it is.

I would most likely have scored Blaine, just in case the leg 2 rally packet would lead me to believe 4-corners was a viable option still on the table, but would assume after that leg 2 rally packet was out was analyzed I would abandon the 4-corners quest.

Hyder - that is a tougher decision. Great risk and reward. I think my decision would be the differential in points on leg 1 between getting it (and Oregon), and just scarfing capitals.

I really wish I was running it, but to me, this one is really tough to plan in the beginning when trying to go for that Top 10, or Top 5 finish. It will be VERY interesting to me to see what two top competitors have done - Eric Jewell and Chris Sakala. We still don't know a damn thing about them yet.

 

[wheatonFJR]

Just finnished a burger and fries, damn, greasy keyboard!

Hey Karl, make sure you get enough rest as well. You don't want to pull a hammy on legs 2 or 3 due to lack of sleep.

 

[escapefjrtist]

Just finished my lunch. Great stuff...glued to the computer, at least as much as I can!

Thanks to all for their insight and analysis. Love the spot page, kinda like seeing a swarm move across the country.

--G

 

[bassplayer88]

Warchild,

For the newbies here (self included), if you where wanting to prepare to meet qualifications for 2012 5K or 2013 11k rallies, what recommendations would you make that would increase your chances of your application being selected ( if understand correctly, the IBA selects the applications). IE multiple IBA certs, placement in other IBA events ..

Thanks for any info ...

 

[Little toe]

I've been reading with great interest about various routing options, but the surely the winning route will be a Hyder and 4 corners ride with minimal capitals, just the low lying fruit?

From what I've read there's 4800 for Hyder, plus 4800 for the 4 corners and another 4800 for the 48 states, total 14,400. Anyone doing the 4 corners and 48 states will score 9,600, meaning they'd have to score all the capitals, in daylight hours to just equal the Hyder / 4 corners / 48 states.

 

[tmc]

LT - the unknown is what the Capitols will be worth in future legs, not to mention any other surprises the RM throws at them.... As mentioned before, Hyder and/or the 4 corners might be fool's gold.

 

[airboss]

Just finnished a burger and fries, damn, greasy keyboard!

Hey Karl, make sure you get enough rest as well. You don't want to pull a hammy on legs 2 or 3 due to lack of sleep.

I spent last night, from 11Pm to 3AM running supplies to hospitals along I80 from Princeton to Ottawa, IL. Hasty heavy drizzling rain, buffeting winds and lots of construction. Any riders passing that way last night did so in a lot less than optimal conditions.

 

[SkooterG]

I've been reading with great interest about various routing options, but the surely the winning route will be a Hyder and 4 corners ride with minimal capitals, just the low lying fruit?

From what I've read there's 4800 for Hyder, plus 4800 for the 4 corners and another 4800 for the 48 states, total 14,400. Anyone doing the 4 corners and 48 states will score 9,600, meaning they'd have to score all the capitals, in daylight hours to just equal the Hyder / 4 corners / 48 states.

I think you are confusing states with capitals. To be a finisher and get the 4800 points, a rider just has to get a receipt from anywhere in each state. Going for and getting a capital earns additional points. We have no idea what the capital values are for leg 1, much less legs 2 and 3 where traditionally point values go up on an exponential scale.

For example, as a *total* guess, let's say can get 3500 points on leg 1 capital hunting. 7500 on leg 2, and 25000 on leg 3. All of a sudden Hyder and 4-corners are not such huge points anymore. Like I said, a gamble one way or another. Riders will have a somewhat better picture after the leg 2 bonus listing comes out and they can see how capital point values are escalating (or not).

 

[mdisher]

4-corners is a gamble - Is it worth eating up the time to get those corners when that time may well be better spent on those yet unkown capital points on legs 2 and especially 3?

And of course the final gamble - that capital points will escalate in leg 2 and especially leg 3 making the 4800 points for Hyder and 4-corners not such a huge advantage.

Skooter (and others)... Why is the 4 Corners perceived to be riskier than Hyder?

By my best guess and precise calculations, I put Hyder as a 2000 mile out of the way 4800 points, that makes making checkpoint one iffy (by most).

My view of the four corners is that the two left coast locations are almost 'gimmee's just not that far out of the way. Leaving Key West and Maine to be considered. By my calculations they are only ~1700 miles out of the way vs. 2000 with better roads all the way around (relatively speaking) for potentially the same reward. Of course some of these guys *might* get both.

I am certainly open to the fact that I could be wrong, but I think I'd prefer riding to those spots with more fuel, better roads, etc, etc. than Hyder. But then I've not yet visited Hyder so maybe I'm just quite simply skeered.

If the points escalate, then maybe, Hyder was a boondogle. Those riders might just be toasted enough that the 4800 point lead they have, (and associated deficit from skipping other precious states and/or capitols) might just make that a very bad gamble.

Their 4800 points lead might be more like ~2000, or less, and they may have ridden themselves into a deep deep hole.

Not saying that's the case, but it sure could be.

Hrm...

 

[Twigg]

To answer an earlier question ....

As I understand it, the RallyMaster has absolute control. She can change, amend, add pretty much as she sees fit ... In theory

In practise, any decent organisation will have made substantial attempts to plan in advance, and so the basic format is fixed, including points for bonii. This is a massive undertaking, and flying by the seat of your pants will lead to anything but a smooth landing. It isn't left to chance.

There will be contingencies already built in for some potential events.

The problem is that in 1984? anyway, in one of the early Rallies, the RM was accused of "fixing" the result. Whether or not this actually happened is moot, it was a different time, a different organisation.

However, the Rally has to maintain it's integrity, and it does because any changes that are required are done openly and with full explanations. It has to be that way, the participants devote a great deal of time and money just to take part.

If Lisa has to depart from the pre-planned Rally, then my guess would be that it was something extreme that caused it, and pretty much everyone would agree to the changes.

From the Reports I have read, and accounts I have heard from previous IBRs, this Rally is valued by competitors and observers alike simply because it is so damned professional that everyone trusts the IBA implicitly.

 

[Boondoggle]

If the points escalate, then maybe, Hyder was a boondogle.

Hey! :angry22:

 

[DNA]

Anyone else here expecting there to be an all 48 capitals super bonus worth 4800 or 9600 or something crazy on leg 3 making the 4 corners and Hyder wasted time?

That is my long shot bet at the mind screw we all know is coming.

 

[BwanaDik]

4-corners is a gamble - Is it worth eating up the time to get those corners when that time may well be better spent on those yet unkown capital points on legs 2 and especially 3?

And of course the final gamble - that capital points will escalate in leg 2 and especially leg 3 making the 4800 points for Hyder and 4-corners not such a huge advantage.

Skooter (and others)... Why is the 4 Corners perceived to be riskier than Hyder?

By my best guess and precise calculations, I put Hyder as a 2000 mile out of the way 4800 points, that makes making checkpoint one iffy (by most).

My view of the four corners is that the two left coast locations are almost 'gimmee's just not that far out of the way. Leaving Key West and Maine to be considered. By my calculations they are only ~1700 miles out of the way vs. 2000 with better roads all the way around (relatively speaking) for potentially the same reward. Of course some of these guys *might* get both.

I am certainly open to the fact that I could be wrong, but I think I'd prefer riding to those spots with more fuel, better roads, etc, etc. than Hyder. But then I've not yet visited Hyder so maybe I'm just quite simply skeered.

If the points escalate, then maybe, Hyder was a boondogle. Those riders might just be toasted enough that the 4800 point lead they have, (and associated deficit from skipping other precious states and/or capitols) might just make that a very bad gamble.

Their 4800 points lead might be more like ~2000, or less, and they may have ridden themselves into a deep deep hole.

Not saying that's the case, but it sure could be.

Hrm...

Pretty much what I've been figuring. Esp. the Left Coast corners. I don't think you can do both Hyder AND four corners, not enough time to get to CP #1 after corner #2. Seems like four corners plus as many capitols as you can grab would be the highest points

 

[SkooterG]

Going to corner 2 in Maine after checkpoint 2, and then especially going to corner 3 (Key West) after checkpoint 3 will be HUGE time suckers. Time that can be spent going for high value capitals. In the end, which is a better srtategy we won't know until the finish. But knowing capital point values for leg 1, and then for leg 2, will give riders at least a decent idea of the trade-off between the two.

Corner 4 in California might not be too hard to get, but what if the capitals of Sacremento, CA, Carson City, NV, and Salt Lake City, UT are worth HUGE points? Most likely, you can't get those capitals AND the fourth corner.

 

[Boondoggle]

Not that my opinion matters, but... I thought the 4 corners was a red herring too... but I've been sitting here looking at the stopped rider in Harrisburg, someone elsewhere suggested he bust it east? At first I thought 'no way, I'm not messing with I-95 in the rain,' but IF he could pick up MA, CT NH, RI, ME, then bust it to Madewaska and grab VT on the way back to the CP... that would leave a TON of time for farting around and grabbing whatever pays best on the way to Key West, then back up to Jax, even if you took the inland route thru the capitals...

I think he's out of time for that now, though

 

[Tyler]

Must be the lunch hour... :lol:

Past the lunch hour and we're up to 98 now!

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