FJRForum Official 2015 Iron Butt Rally Tracking/Analysis thread

[puppychow]

Every bonus in the bonus pack has a points value in every leg. What the points values are is not disclosed until the rider meeting before that particular leg starts.

 

[Twigg]

Wow, I downloaded a PDF of the rally book totally cool book but after looking at the first few pages bonus's are time restricted to specific hours or times so it looks like riders will run at night to be ready for a daylight bonus. I guess that is one way to ensure that the riders get enough rest.
I wonder is the IBA will put a GPX file with the locations.?

I'm pretty sure they got a thumbdrive with the locations and coordinates. Not sure how they comunicated the point values and time restrictions. Could still have been a significant amount of data entry for each leg.

They got a thumbdrive with ALL the locations at the start.. The point values for the 1st Leg were in an appendix at the back of the Rally Book.

 

[st4sal]

hearing reports of warnings by Mike K and penalties????

 

[Timmer]

For any interested, I’ve sorted the standings a few different ways. Kina interestingCan be found on the countdown page:

https://austinmedia.net/stuff/temp/15IBRcountdown.html

RJ

Very nice. Any chance of adding an efficiency column? Points/Miles?

Signed

Spreadsheet challenged

I sent a set of efficiency calculations to RJ and I'll let him post them if he wishes. There are some surprises there.

 

[dudeckp]

hearing reports of warnings by Mike K and penalties????

I think I'd rather face off with a Trooper than Mr. Kneebone. Just guessing, having never met him (yet.)

 

[RenoJohn]

For any interested, I’ve sorted the standings a few different ways. Kina interesting

Can be found on the countdown page:

Very nice. Any chance of adding an efficiency column? Points/Miles?Signed

Spreadsheet challenged

There is more in play here than points, there are also qty-states and qty-natParks. Which makes efficiency stats kinda interesting, (+anal+silly) ....so I'm in.

....I'll work it up for each and sort by each. It may be more interesting after leg 2

 

[Twigg]

I'm still not getting the hair splitting over in/and. Obviously, the way to claim a state is to visit a national park IN a certain state. There is nothing, that I have seen anyway, saying that one must collect more than 1 park in any given state... Either I'm really blond or you guys are trying to be too meticulous.

Kitty this is quite correct.

To be a finisher they need a minimum of 50 Parks, and they need those parks to be located in a minimum of 25 states. It is NOT required that they get 2 parks in a state to claim the state.

Will Barclay may have messed up, but he also may have done something that puts him in a very strong position. That is, he already has 16 states and as the points increase he might need to ride many fewer miles to vacuum up lots of parks in a smaller number of states, increasing his points total quickly. Only time will tell because I don't know the point values later anymore than any of us.

 

[Webwalker]

Howdy all, new guy here. Just stopping by to post a link to some pics from yesterday's Josh Mountain Forkapalooza repair shindig hosted by NMRoadrunner and HotRodZilla.

Cheers ~~ WW

 

[RJAMT]

Collecting a bonus in a state IS the ONLY way to collect a state in the 2015 IBR. Which also means that you better not drop that bonus in that state at the scoring table, if it is the only one that you collected in that state, and were counting on it to put you over the tally.

Hope I'm not at work whenever the great migration passes through the Lincoln house in Springfield then. Since Illinois is sort of a must cross to pick up Midwest bonii might as well snag the park and state right?

Only a 2 hr jaunt so my popcorn will scarcely be cold!

 

[HotRodZilla]

While those around us were un-aware of the grave nature of our problem. I looked at AJ and he had the same look on his face. "We are fucked.......and so is Josh's IBA ride" Well cooler heads prevailed, Lenny said" we just have to keep at it"

WTF??!! That's my normal face! Haha...Honestly, what was going through my mind was how long it was going to take me to drive home, get the forks off of my bike and drive back. I was wondering what my Yamaha guy was gonna say when I took him the shocks in pieces and asked him to fix them.

Lenny and TC were funny because as soon as the shock locked up, Bud said, "That bottom bushing just went inside the other one, that's what it felt like." That's when the "Oh Shit" mode set in. We got to talking about twisting it and Bud got out his strap wrench. Holt shit Batman...I can't believe that worked. Luckily while this was happening, we had sent Josh off to clean parts or something.

Gawd, I would have been SO hosed if I had tried that in my sorry garage.

Great work HRZ and Roadrunner

if you ever should have to do forks again, a little heat in the area of the bushings will make them practically slide out. You still have to pull on the tube like a slide hammer, but the effort is significantly less with much less chance of issues getting stuck.

Oh, NOW you say...Motherfu...Haha...

Now I have to go back and read all the stuff I blew over looking for ideas to fix Josh's bike. I want to see the scores, because he's not the only one I'm pulling for. Tony, 101stPathfinder and Brant, DaJuice are both on FJRs, and I'm hoping the do well. I haven't heard from them since Sunday, so I'm assuming they're both running their plan with little issue.

 

[mjac]

All of "my" horses are within the 10 hour line - now that we're down to 9.5 hrs, but some not by much... Definitely will be a nail biter for me this evening!
I wish I could stay awake late. For me to stay up until 8 MDT will be a challenge, let alone the 10PM cut off. Y'all keep me posted so I can check when I wake up tomorrow!

I'll be heading down to the checkpoint in TN. Leaving on Saturday morning to hang out with my buddy who will be there helping folks with maintenance and repairs, maybe look to catch some fireworks (if I can stay awake!). Anyone have local knowledge on a good spot to do that? Sunday should be a ton of fun! You know there's something wrong with an individual who enjoys sitting at the scoring table going thru the pile of stuff riders plop down on the table.

This was posted on MTF:

."If in the area on the 4th we are dining at 6pm at Hokey Smokie Grill in downtown Kingsport"

I won't get there until Sun for lunch with Rick.

 

[gixxerjasen]

I think I've spotted in those pictures why Josh does so well, clearly he's cheating. He's able to do monster runs because it appears he has the easy effortless energy saving shifting system of one of those oddball AE's.

 

[Ignacio]

There is more in play here than points, there are also qty-states and qty-natParks. Which makes efficiency stats kinda interesting, (+anal+silly) ....so I'm in.

That got me a thinking a bit. I think there might be yet another dimension developing here on Leg #2. What if they gotta get a minimum number of parks in states AND they can visit parks multiple times for points each time they visit?

If so, that means they could throw a park points to be a large amount in Leg #2, a rider having already visited it in Leg #1, but it's worth enough to visit again......with the probable caveat that subsequent visits won't count towards the minimum 50.

Again if so....that's seriously diabolical, guaranteed to cause many a helmet fire, and reward the puzzle master riders out there.

The reason I bring it up is I think I see rider(s) going back to places they visited in the first leg. I'm just sayin'......

 

[puppychow]

There is more in play here than points, there are also qty-states and qty-natParks. Which makes efficiency stats kinda interesting, (+anal+silly) ....so I'm in.

That got me a thinking a bit. I think there might be yet another dimension developing here on Leg #2. What if they gotta get a minimum number of parks in states AND they can visit parks multiple times for points each time they visit?

If so, that means they could throw a park points to be a large amount in Leg #2, a rider having already visited it in Leg #1, but it's worth enough to visit again......with the probable caveat that subsequent visits won't count towards the minimum 50.

Again if so....that's seriously diabolical, guaranteed to cause many a helmet fire, and reward the puzzle master riders out there.

The reason I bring it up is I think I see rider(s) going back to places they visited in the first leg. I'm just sayin'......

From what I could gather at the start meeting. That is at least partly accurate. You can visit a national park and collect the same bonus location in each leg, points value for each leg will be different. So, technically you can visit a N.P. location 3 times over the course of the rally. It will still only count as 1 state and 1 national park. Which means it will add to your points, but it won't add to your 50 in 25 tally.

 

[Ignacio]

From what I could gather at the start meeting. That is accurate. You can visit a national park and collect the same bonus location in each leg, points value for each leg will be different. It will still only count as 1 state and 1 national park.

And it wasn't like I came up with it myself....I thought I'd seen or heard that from somewhere or somebody earlier. But the importance to me as a spectator is only becoming clear now. Those state and park columns are going to become even more important after Leg 2 scores are up.

 

[RenoJohn]

For any interested, I’ve sorted the standings a few different ways. Kina interesting

Can be found on the countdown page:

https://austinmedia.net/stuff/temp/15IBRcountdown.html

RJ

Nice slice and dice! Thanks!

Ya Matt, Kinda fun.

**So how does one apply an efficiency value when there are multiple things in play? (points|parks|states)

**I guess we just show the efficiency for each ...and apply our individual wisdom LOL

.... efficiency data by points|parks|states Here

 

[RenoJohn]

~snip~ Those state and park columns are going to become even more important after Leg 2 scores are up.

Yep, fascinating puzzle.Also note that many riders got out early this morning ...I'm confident many had been working on their route during their first leg and at the CP before even knowing point values ....they could come up with scenarios based on states and parks ...and then fine-tune once points became available (this morning). I like this a lot.

 

[Twigg]

We have a fascinating split-strategy going on with guys like Jim Owen, for example, racking up Parks with a medium amount of States, and Will Barclay (currently 55th) with an enormous number of States and few Parks.

The points are attached to the Parks, not the states, and when the points go up later Will could be well placed to go for lots of Parks while the others still need to ride to get States.

On the other hand, States in the East are much easier to get, so it might not matter that Owen only has 6 at the moment.

This is a fiendish puzzle and I'm loving it.

 

[Leehopp]

Webwalkker -

Thanks for the pics of the fork repair. !

 

[RenoJohn]

There is more in play here than points, there are also qty-states and qty-natParks. Which makes efficiency stats kinda interesting, (+anal+silly) ....so I'm in.

That got me a thinking a bit. I think there might be yet another dimension developing here on Leg #2. What if they gotta get a minimum number of parks in states AND they can visit parks multiple times for points each time they visit?
If so, that means they could throw a park points to be a large amount in Leg #2, a rider having already visited it in Leg #1, but it's worth enough to visit again......with the probable caveat that subsequent visits won't count towards the minimum 50.

Again if so....that's seriously diabolical, guaranteed to cause many a helmet fire, and reward the puzzle master riders out there.

The reason I bring it up is I think I see rider(s) going back to places they visited in the first leg. I'm just sayin'......

My thoughts exaclty and *IF* parks can be accumulated multiple times (one time per leg) then this thing gets magical in the scenarios and makes gathering states early very important (more so than parks).**Imagine leaving CP2 with all your states ...and the finish in AQ (central US +/-) ...that *MAY* be a very enviable scenario. we knew early that states are important, but as you say, they may be VERY important to have early. Much more important than points.

I'll go out on a limb and speculate that the parks can be earned again on each new leg. Why do I think that?

+ Logistics of auditing prior bonuses earned at the scoriing table would be tough

+ It takes the routing possibilities to a googolplex number. (right sameer?)