FJRForum Official 2015 Iron Butt Rally Tracking/Analysis thread

[jwhite518]

OK Just under 36 hours to go in leg 1. Who has the farthest to go to get back to Albuquerque. i reckon its rider #136 near Grants Pass in OR. Quickest route on my Basecamp gives a I5, Hwy 58, I40 route of 1426 miles in 21hrs.

I talked to Grants Pass rider last night. (Actually Oregon Caves) He's confident he can make it, and actually is visiting very few bonuses between now and the CP. His goal is the NPT, finisher status. He doesn't care about points. The majority of riders in ID/MT/WY are most likely paying attention to points (is my guess anyway.)

 

[Sharif]

The distance and time are certainly doable. Twist that throttle and eat while you gas.

 

[dudeckp]

I only wish I had the stones to compete in something like this so I'm not asking this for myself personally but generally....how do these riders get chosen? Surely not just anyone can sign up? I understand also that it is run completely by volunteers (amazing in itself) so I also assume that the cost to participate is all on the rider also, is there any prize money at all or just bragging rights?

Twigg's answer was pretty good, but Ignacio's (from his own blog site) was incredibly comprehensive:

Who gets chosen?From the 2009 application statement:

Iron Butt Rally veterans, IBA Premier Members, rally workers from previous rallies and other new riders. The first part of the drawing will randomly take thirty five envelopes from the veterans’ box and allocate positions for those riders. Should more than 35 veterans apply, the remaining envelopes will be placed in the new rider box and it will be shuffled (that means in effect, that veterans have two chances to be drawn).

The second part of the drawing will randomly take thirty five envelopes from the Premier box and allocate positions for those riders. Should more than 35 Premier members apply, the remaining envelopes will be placed in the new rider box and it will be shuffled (that means in effect, that Premier members have two chances to be drawn).

Ten positions will be drawn for those people who worked on previous

Iron Butt Rallies. Should more than ten workers apply, the remaining volunteer envelopes will be placed in the new rider box and it will be shuffled (that means in effect, past-volunteers also have two chances to be drawn).

Each applicant will have no more than two opportunities to be drawn.

It’s then possible to do an estimated analysis based on guesses of how many are placed in each box:

1st drawing = 35 rally vet slots & 100 (est) rally vets apply

Vets have a 35% chance of getting picked. That’s about one in three.

The remaining 65 vets go into the new rider box.

2nd drawing = 35 Premier Member slots & 250 (est) Premier Members apply

Premier members have an 8% chance of getting picked.

The remaining 230 Premiers go into the new rider box.

3rd drawing = 10 Volunteer slots & 50 volunteers (est) apply

This group has a fair chance at 20% or 1 in 5.

The remaining 40 volunteers go into the new rider bin.

Final Drawing = 20 (est) New Rider Slots & 300 new riders apply + the remaining from the first 3 drawings.

The new rider bin has now swollen to 635 riders, competing for a mere 20 slots. That’s a 3.1% chance, or one in 30 chance. Pretty slim odds, but newbies with little rally experience do get drawn occasionally and often have colorful stories.

Hopeless Class = Few and Discretionary. These folks ride a special bike that is usually hold or ill-suited to this type of endeavor….and have a special spot in everybody’s heart. You wanna ride a 1956 Indian in the IBR…there’s a good chance you’ll get in.

 

[CraigRegs]

I sure hope Jason or someone someplace is doing a time lapsed video of the Spot map.

He is, but you may have to wait for it.

 

[tnjallen]

I sure hope Jason or someone someplace is doing a time lapsed video of the Spot map.

At least one person is.

I am putting screenshots together as a movie. It is crude, and I am unapologetically fascinated. I admit to being a little technologically challenged, so let me know if the link doesn't work.

Here's a link to what I put together for July 1st from midnight to midnight. I plan to do some more of this and will post more links later if interested.

 

[puppychow]

If 155 is going to great basin, I might see him..yay!!

 

[Auburn]

Quite the gathering at devils tower with many more that appear to be on the way to or from. Where's that refresh button...

 

[grommet]

The "Texas Guy" is a very fine rider who knows exactly what he is doing. He has picked a very bold strategy for high points. His problem might be that when he gets to the checkpoint, he could be exhausted. Only time will tell.

Yes. He did one leg of a 4 seasons BB1500 on the way to the rally start. 22 hours. Looks to be heading to Jean Lafitte in New Orleans now. Who knows after that. I've done the math based on his previous runs/endurance, and he can make it, with time for several more stops on the way back to ABQ. I'll go out on a limb and predict Natchez, Vicksburg, Arkansas Post, Hot Springs, Fort Smith, and Washita Battlefield.

Yes, I'm getting caught up in it. A lot. And loving every minute.

 

[Bionic Pelvis]

I know I'm not the only one, but I can't wait to see the Leg 1 standings! Obviously my info has been primarily gleaned from the daily reports and voracious SPOT consumption, but WOW! There are some riders (Josh Mountain) whose only setting is "Epic", so it's not surprising to see he's gone for mega-miles. But I find it quite compelling that Jim Owen hasn't strayed further than 400 miles from ABQ. I have a hard time believing he'd come out of retirement just for a little flower-sniffing; does he have some other motivation behind his route, or are there big points to be had by Hoovering up a bunch of smaller bonii?

That was certainly the case in 2013. I believe, from my experience and from talking to many other riders, that lots of people got sucked into the idea that the surefire way to a great finish is always to route through as many Big Point Bonii as possible, then fill in the gaps with whatever smaller bonii are along the way. Meanwhile, several of us did relatively low miles but racked up piles of points by hitting every little bonus we could possibly nab. After the first leg Josh Mountain was in 9th place, having done more miles than anyone else in the Top Ten. He'd clocked over 600 miles more than Derek Dickson's 1st place route, more than 1000 miles over my 3rd place route, and a staggering 1,565 miles more than 10th place Craig Brooks, besting Craig by a mere 290 points. Of course, Josh went on to take 2nd overall, so there is something to be said for brute force. Then again, a lesser man may have been so depleted by cranking out those huge miles early on that their remaining rally would suffer for the effort. If anybody can pull off a long-shot big mile coup, it's Josh Mountain. But if anybody can wring the most points out of a leg, even if it means totally adjusting their traditional view of route planning, it's Jim Owen.

Are we going to see one of these two riders in the top position on July 3rd? Might it be, as Senior Scribe suggests, Chris Sakala with a classic smart-miles-big-bonii approach? Could it be more like 2011, where a low standing after Leg 1 was the result of a long-term strategy and not necessarily ineffective rallying? Maybe Will Barclay sees something the others don't, playing the long game instead of just going for a high-point leg. There are so many questions I need answered! Two more days...

 

[Phil Tarman]

I live in Greeley, CO, and just finished working as an interim pastor in Newcastle, WY, for the last 3 1/2 months. I could have seen a lot of riders go north on I-25 and if I was still in Newcastle, I could have sat outside the travel trailer I lived in and watched even more go north on US85 or east on US16.

I'm rooting for Jerome Boyd, the rider on the NT700V. Sorry, FJR folk.

 

[Go Far]

Can't remember the year, 2011 or 2013, but the Alaska bonus was considered a fools errand and no way to make it....and three or four riders snagged it and made the checkpoint. Ya never really know on these things.

It was 2011 and it was a piece of cake!

Might have been, but the armchair quarterbacks were calling those guys (you?) idiots when it was in progress. Maybe Texas is a piece of cake too with a lot of points. Only time, and the official scorers will tell.

Yep, I was one of the ones that made Hyder in 2011. I knew what miles I could maintain so I didn't see it as nutty

Though as I recall I was told by staff at the start that it was too many miles

 

[gixxerjasen]

Read the Day 2 ride report. History shows that neither rider who went to Texas is to be considered an idiot.

My capture computer is chugging away. I'll have Leg 1 up hopefully but 2 and 3 and the whole enchilada will have to wait.

 

[Ignacio]

If anybody can pull off a long-shot big mile coup, it's Josh Mountain. But if anybody can wring the most points out of a leg, even if it means totally adjusting their traditional view of route planning, it's Jim Owen.

I was forming the same kind of thoughts in my head the past several days, but you've far better distilled them into that particular point. Two very different approaches that are going to be hugely interesting when the first points are reported.

This first leg is definitely showing there's about 4 bazillion different ways to do things and precious few common trends other than that North and West seem to be popular....with dashes off to Texas.

On a more personal and local level, my house seems to be right on the edge of that patrol space. I had half a dozen people wander within 40 miles of my home in Pasco and one actually within 4 miles of my place. I do think Whitman Mission National Historic Site in nearby Walla Walla is one of the bonsues and this weird stop in Hermiston, OR by at least two riders that doesn't have anything that I know of "National" within 20 miles. There is a lovely "butte" in a local park though.

 

[Intech]

I sure hope Jason or someone someplace is doing a time lapsed video of the Spot map.

At least one person is.

I am putting screenshots together as a movie. It is crude, and I am unapologetically fascinated. I admit to being a little technologically challenged, so let me know if the link doesn't work.

Here's a link to what I put together for July 1st from midnight to midnight. I plan to do some more of this and will post more links later if interested.

That is awesome!!

 

[Dan S]

He very well may be diabolical genius, only time will tell.
He did make rest stop here in Austin last night. I was pretty tempted to go to that motel and take a picture of his bike, but then I reminded myself that the IBR is for the IBR riders, not for us fans peeking through a knothole in the fence. So I left him alone.

I totally would have gone to his rest stop, waited until he appeared, and introduced myself. That kind of thing does wonders for a rider's morale. It's lonely out there.

+++ I met a rider near my home who was getting toward the end of a multi-day rally. I said that I was following his SPOT (kind of obvious I suppose) and really enjoyed watching his progress and admired what he was doing. He shot me a text a week later saying how much he appreciated that and it really was a big encouragement.

 

[Randy]

He very well may be diabolical genius, only time will tell.
He did make rest stop here in Austin last night. I was pretty tempted to go to that motel and take a picture of his bike, but then I reminded myself that the IBR is for the IBR riders, not for us fans peeking through a knothole in the fence. So I left him alone.

I totally would have gone to his rest stop, waited until he appeared, and introduced myself. That kind of thing does wonders for a rider's morale. It's lonely out there.

+++ I met a rider near my home who was getting toward the end of a multi-day rally. I said that I was following his SPOT (kind of obvious I suppose) and really enjoyed watching his progress and admired what he was doing. He shot me a text a week later saying how much he appreciated that and it really was a big encouragement.

Did that to Iggy one year. The 'WTF' look on his face was priceless.

Also ran into Joel Rappoport one year (by coincidence, not by SPOT following) and he seemed befuddled...almost as if there was no one else on the earth that had any idea the rally was going on.

 

[Redfish Hunter]

That poor soul in New Orleans right now has my respect. I don't know what bonus location he is after but he is smack in the middle of the worst traffic/stupidest drivers in the entire state of Louisiana. Being forced to ride or drive through that section of New Orleans is my personal idea of Hell but he is certainly doing it. If that is indeed Josh Mountain, I just signed up for his fan club.

 

[heynowref]

This is just so much freaking fun. The guy in New Orleans might be getting pummeled by some storms. I'm guessing that may be why he seems to be statinary at the moment. At a place called "Iggy's" no less.

 

[Twigg]

Long rides like this consume you, until they are done, then for a while afterwards.

I know everyone is different, but for me, a small kindness or a friendly face during an event makes the world of difference. Just the human contact with an understanding friend can breathe new life into a tired rider.

Not all feel this way although I suspect most do. Just tread carefully

 

[Ignacio]

Did that to Iggy one year. The 'WTF' look on his face was priceless.

Still have the WTF look...one of the highlights of the 2009 IBR!

Here I am having taken the long route from Los Angeles to Spokane, WA by way of the Great Lakes headed west after bagging a 7,921 point "Gay Bar" in Gay, Michigan. I think I recall a fairly long straight stretch of cars bunched up and overtook the lot at FJR-typical velocity in one swoop...and saw an FJR in the mass that caught up to me. I think some town by the lake I stopped and said hi with a fellow forum dweller--and made me smile the rest of the day. And then headed on towards Bemidji to stress about a blown shock.....Day 10 is always fuzzy in the IBR.

The other time I was riding partner with DougC in the 2007 and he had the predecessor to SPOT--StarTrax and a rider came up along side at a stoplight in Pennsylvania one night and scared the crap out of me as I thought I was hearing voices in my left ear.