FJRForum Official 2017 Iron Butt Rally Tracking/Analysis Thread

[RenoJohn]

Three just popped up on Spotwalla in North Sydney! But there's still one reporting in Newfie - must have missed the ride? If so that would be a real blow.

His spot may still be firing from the bowels of the ferry, or maybe for some other reason hasn't connected to sattelite since the journey. Or, like you say, maybe still on the island.

Must be a Gen 3 FJR.

No doubt.

There are countless potential reasons, weight being one of them, every ferry vessel has weight restrictions.

However, I find it unlikely that any of these amazing island riders would be foolish enough to choose a gen3, a bike with consistently pathetic rally performance, especially compared to it's older siblings.

It could be worse, there could be a Harley in the mix or heaven forbid a Honda.

At the end of Leg2, a Honda was beating *all* Gen3 riders ..yet that Honda was trailing multiple earlier gen FJRs

And a Harley sportster was leading multiple gen3 FJR's while trailing just two.

The Gen3 performance (lack of) continues. Bike has been out 5 years now, when the earlier generation fjr's came out, they instantly dominated. Sad, yamaha should know you don't win by fatter and slower and double down on the trend year after year.

RJ

 

[Bill]

If I were riding from Nova Scotia and I'm NOT!!!!!

I'd stay on the Trans-Canada to Sault Ste Marie and cut 100 miles off of the direct route to the Finish.

Wonder if there are more bonuses available in that part of Ontario and in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan than there are along the 401 and I-69 and I-94.

It's sure easier to be watching on my computer, than having to think my way through something like that while riding.

 

[bwoodsom]

Three just popped up on Spotwalla in North Sydney! But there's still one reporting in Newfie - must have missed the ride? If so that would be a real blow.

His spot may still be firing from the bowels of the ferry, or maybe for some other reason hasn't connected to sattelite since the journey. Or, like you say, maybe still on the island.

Must be a Gen 3 FJR.

No doubt.

There are countless potential reasons, weight being one of them, every ferry vessel has weight restrictions.

However, I find it unlikely that any of these amazing island riders would be foolish enough to choose a gen3, a bike with consistently pathetic rally performance, especially compared to it's older siblings.

It could be worse, there could be a Harley in the mix or heaven forbid a Honda.

At the end of Leg2, a Honda was beating *all* Gen3 riders ..yet that Honda was trailing multiple earlier gen FJRs

And a Harley sportster was leading multiple gen3 FJR's while trailing just two.

The Gen3 performance (lack of) continues. Bike has been out 5 years now, when the earlier generation fjr's came out, they instantly dominated. Sad, yamaha should know you don't win by fatter and slower and double down on the trend year after year.

RJ

There is a Ninja 250 and a 94 BMW in the top ten. I don't think it matters what generation your FJR is in a rally, it is what sitting atop the FJR that counts.

Bob

 

[cas42]

What is going to be interesting as this all pans out...which strategy gets the big points. The big ride to Newfoundland/Labrador for those big points in a small area OR get a whole lot of strings with high point value at stop 5, without the stress of that big ride. The 5 who went there are great planners, so one would think that was the winning strategy. Have heard various rumors of how many points could be grabbed by going there but don't know the real numbers. But, just talked with a friend who has had a real good (not great) ride for this leg, and he right now has more points just for this leg than it takes to be a finisher.
I am betting all of the big 5 go for at least one high point string on the return to MN. They know 4 of their competitors matched their ride, if they want to move up, they have to do something bold.

JEF

If you're one of the island five, you have a reasonably good grasp of what the other island riders have in comparison to your own points. So not only are they all living in each other's heads, but they're also making assessments on what to go for to move up notches against the others, vs playing playing it safe to be a finisher. If you're in a top spot, you know the guys behind you are gunning for you, so how defensive do you go.

Whenever you're in a fight, the guy to fear is the guy with nothing to lose. How many of these guys would risk DNF for time in an attempt to get the points needed to WIN. One, that I can think of, maybe more.

RJ

What is going to be interesting as this all pans out...which strategy gets the big points. The big ride to Newfoundland/Labrador for those big points in a small area OR get a whole lot of strings with high point value at stop 5, without the stress of that big ride. The 5 who went there are great planners, so one would think that was the winning strategy. Have heard various rumors of how many points could be grabbed by going there but don't know the real numbers. But, just talked with a friend who has had a real good (not great) ride for this leg, and he right now has more points just for this leg than it takes to be a finisher.
I am betting all of the big 5 go for at least one high point string on the return to MN. They know 4 of their competitors matched their ride, if they want to move up, they have to do something bold.

JEF

If you're one of the island five, you have a reasonably good grasp of what the other island riders have in comparison to your own points. So not only are they all living in each other's heads, but they're also making assessments on what to go for to move up notches against the others, vs playing playing it safe to be a finisher. If you're in a top spot, you know the guys behind you are gunning for you, so how defensive do you go.

Whenever you're in a fight, the guy to fear is the guy with nothing to lose. How many of these guys would risk DNF for time in an attempt to get the points needed to WIN. One, that I can think of, maybe more.

RJ

Interesting points that you are both making. I wish I could keep those 5 spots straight to follow them before they start mixing back in with the rest of the riders in the U.S.

Is there a way to do this? (Edited: to keep track of those specific spots, I mean?)

 

[puppychow]

Don't feed the troll. I am sure RJ would come up with an argument that the Ninja and the 94 BMW are in the top 10 because of superior Weight/HP ratio...

 

[Powershouse]

If I were riding from Nova Scotia and I'm NOT!!!!!
I'd stay on the Trans-Canada to Sault Ste Marie and cut 100 miles off of the direct route to the Finish.

Wonder if there are more bonuses available in that part of Ontario and in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan than there are along the 401 and I-69 and I-94.

It's sure easier to be watching on my computer, than having to think my way through something like that while riding.

The problem with that route - and the continuation across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northern Wisconsin - is the higher concentration of four-legged forest creatures and lower concentration of services compared to dropping down into the US for return to MN. Might not be as much of a concern during daylight hours, but these folks will have to log significant after dark hours to reach finish in time.

 

[danalipps]

What time do they have to be in to the finish to avoid penalty? Before 6am or before 8am Friday?

 

[JohnF]

If I were riding from Nova Scotia and I'm NOT!!!!!
I'd stay on the Trans-Canada to Sault Ste Marie and cut 100 miles off of the direct route to the Finish.

Wonder if there are more bonuses available in that part of Ontario and in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan than there are along the 401 and I-69 and I-94.

It's sure easier to be watching on my computer, than having to think my way through something like that while riding.

Other issue is speed limits, or probably more appropriately said...the speeds one could one move at. Much of the Canada route has a 100kmh (62mph) speed limits or slower. The big factor will probably not be speed limits or the shorter distance, but where one could pick up an easy string (or 2) on the dash to the finish.

 

[bwoodsom]

We did the Trans Canada from Sault Ste Marie east to Sudbury ON on the way home from the IBR start last week. It was not a great road, slow going, tons of trucks and construction. I think I would go south if it didn't matter bonus wise. We obviously don't have this data.

Bob

 

[eflyguy]

Per post #1 in this thread:

FINISH
Friday, July 7, Penalty points accrue at 8:00:01am
Minneapolis Marriott West (same location as start)
Scoring opens at 5am
Finishers' Banquet 6:30pm

 

[101stpathfinder]

^ Totally agree with you there. If you came into the states from SSM and took highway 2 (I believe) you would have some of the most deer infested roads to ride through.

If you drop down into the states after a North lakeshore ride you would have much of the same (Combined with heavy fog) BUTT... these riders have already demonstrated that they are willing to do whatever it takes for points and a top finish. IF these are four of the top riders after leg 2, what will push them above the other 3? Got to think that risking DNF status might be involved.

 

[cas42]

What time do they have to be in to the finish to avoid penalty? Before 6am or before 8am Friday?

What time do they have to be in to the finish to avoid penalty? Before 6am or before 8am Friday?

Before 8 am.

 

[Blind Squirrel]

^ Totally agree with you there. If you came into the states from SSM and took highway 2 (I believe) you would have some of the most deer infested roads to ride through.If you drop down into the states after a North lakeshore ride you would have much of the same (Combined with heavy fog) BUTT... these riders have already demonstrated that they are willing to do whatever it takes for points and a top finish. IF these are four of the top riders after leg 2, what will push them above the other 3? Got to think that risking DNF status might be involved.

Especially if they already have a three digit IBR number.

 

[Ndv21]

I just have to say how truly exceptional these riders are. Their tolerance and endurance alone is amazing. I have participated in several IBA rides/certs and a couple of small rallies in which I have placed in the top 5, but it pales in comparison to what I am seeing what these riders have accomplished in 9+ days so far. Really puts my feet back down on terra firma with regards to where I stand! My respects to all of these amazing riders.

 

[Jaugie]

It could be worse, there could be a Harley in the mix or heaven forbid a Honda.

At the end of Leg2, a Honda was beating *all* Gen3 riders ..yet that Honda was trailing multiple earlier gen FJRs

And a Harley sportster was leading multiple gen3 FJR's while trailing just two.

The Gen3 performance (lack of) continues. Bike has been out 5 years now, when the earlier generation fjr's came out, they instantly dominated. Sad, yamaha should know you don't win by fatter and slower and double down on the trend year after year.

RJ

I win I got one and the bait wasn't all that stinky.

EDIT

Chris was on the Southwest yesterday not in the maritimes.

 

[McRide]

Per Spotwalla, a rider is lined up at the Port Angeles ferry to Vancouver Island. It's a day trip, so no return to the mainland until 3pm.... 1,750 miles looks doable to MN by 8am Friday but man o' man, that's getting tight...

I used to live in Victoria and have ridden that ferry many times. One possible option is for the rider to travel to the lower mainland of BC (Swartz Bay - Twassen) as the generally have hourly sailings. This may not be faster, and I don't know if it would open up other possible bonus locations. I realize there isn't much margin on time but thought I'd mention there are other ways off the island.

Give the man a prize!... he/ it/ she is lined up at Swartz Bay but... it's still 2 hours to cross and another 1 1/2 hrs until eastward on the I90.... but... it's slightly quicker than back to Port Angeles then south down the 101 to Olympia and the I5... hmmm... it is a truly amazing feat of mental and physical stamina for these riders to keep it together after all these days and all those miles.

 

[Ignacio]

Interesting points that you are both making. I wish I could keep those 5 spots straight to follow them before they start mixing back in with the rest of the riders in the U.S. Is there a way to do this? (Edited: to keep track of those specific spots, I mean?)

They do that ON PURPOSE....so no...not really.

One reason include that you don't be a person that's using as an intelligence source to help other riders. Others are for more extreme issues beyond the scope of this forum.

This event is about the riders first and foremost. We're VERY fortunate to have what we do.

 

[Taddpole]

Give the man a prize!... he/ it/ she is lined up at Swartz Bay but... it's still 2 hours to cross and another 1 1/2 hrs until eastward on the I90.... but... it's slightly quicker than back to Port Angeles then south down the 101 to Olympia and the I5... hmmm... it is a truly amazing feat of mental and physical stamina for these riders to keep it together after all these days and all those miles.

Google offers 27 hours from the Tsawwassen ferry terminal to the finish via I-90. Google says it only adds an hour to go the northern route (through Calgary). Might be a bunch of points available going that way, and there should be plenty of time.

 

[Ignacio]

I did a little intercept myself with a rider and being VERY careful to not interfere with their ride, I was pleasantly surprised that they were having lunch and in not in a particularly big hurry. They're a mid-pack rider, feeling good, and headed to a picture bonus between now and the finish line.

Christopher said he enjoyed the genius of Jeff in putting two bonuses very close together as the crow flies in California where it was a natural to snag two nearby. However, the two might be close via a gnarly mountain trail-road, but he ended up going around to get to the important second in a string.

Christopher looked great, was in good spirits, said he had a bad second leg, but LOVING this final leg. Expect him to be aiming for the finish line. He said he was headed for a bonus in Spokane next.

In the meantime, I got a person eating a sandwich to snap this picture for me:

 

[Warren]

What is going to be interesting as this all pans out...which strategy gets the big points. The big ride to Newfoundland/Labrador for those big points in a small area OR get a whole lot of strings with high point value at stop 5, without the stress of that big ride. The 5 who went there are great planners, so one would think that was the winning strategy. Have heard various rumors of how many points could be grabbed by going there but don't know the real numbers. But, just talked with a friend who has had a real good (not great) ride for this leg, and he right now has more points just for this leg than it takes to be a finisher.
I am betting all of the big 5 go for at least one high point string on the return to MN. They know 4 of their competitors matched their ride, if they want to move up, they have to do something bold.

JEF

If you're one of the island five, you have a reasonably good grasp of what the other island riders have in comparison to your own points. So not only are they all living in each other's heads, but they're also making assessments on what to go for to move up notches against the others, vs playing playing it safe to be a finisher. If you're in a top spot, you know the guys behind you are gunning for you, so how defensive do you go.

Whenever you're in a fight, the guy to fear is the guy with nothing to lose. How many of these guys would risk DNF for time in an attempt to get the points needed to WIN. One, that I can think of, maybe more.

RJ

What is going to be interesting as this all pans out...which strategy gets the big points. The big ride to Newfoundland/Labrador for those big points in a small area OR get a whole lot of strings with high point value at stop 5, without the stress of that big ride. The 5 who went there are great planners, so one would think that was the winning strategy. Have heard various rumors of how many points could be grabbed by going there but don't know the real numbers. But, just talked with a friend who has had a real good (not great) ride for this leg, and he right now has more points just for this leg than it takes to be a finisher.
I am betting all of the big 5 go for at least one high point string on the return to MN. They know 4 of their competitors matched their ride, if they want to move up, they have to do something bold.

JEF

If you're one of the island five, you have a reasonably good grasp of what the other island riders have in comparison to your own points. So not only are they all living in each other's heads, but they're also making assessments on what to go for to move up notches against the others, vs playing playing it safe to be a finisher. If you're in a top spot, you know the guys behind you are gunning for you, so how defensive do you go.

Whenever you're in a fight, the guy to fear is the guy with nothing to lose. How many of these guys would risk DNF for time in an attempt to get the points needed to WIN. One, that I can think of, maybe more.

RJ

Interesting points that you are both making. I wish I could keep those 5 spots straight to follow them before they start mixing back in with the rest of the riders in the U.S.

Is there a way to do this? (Edited: to keep track of those specific spots, I mean?)

I think it will be easy to watch those 4 spots as they will probably be the last ones back to the barn from the east.