FJRForum Official 2017 Iron Butt Rally Tracking/Analysis Thread

[russperry]

Three just popped up on Spotwalla in North Sydney! But there's still one reporting in Newfie - must have missed the ride? If so that would be a real blow.

 

[Ignacio]

They just popped up on Spotwalla in Sydney! But there's still one reporting in Newfie - must have missed the ride?

Give it 10 minutes. They'll update.

 

[RenoJohn]

Three just popped up on Spotwalla in North Sydney! But there's still one reporting in Newfie - must have missed the ride? If so that would be a real blow.

His spot may still be firing from the bowels of the ferry, or maybe for some other reason hasn't connected to sattelite since the journey. Or, like you say, maybe still on the island.

 

[Ignacio]

Three just popped up on Spotwalla in North Sydney! But there's still one reporting in Newfie - must have missed the ride? If so that would be a real blow.

His spot may still be firing from the bowels of the ferry, or maybe for some other reason hasn't connected to sattelite since the journey. Or, like you say, maybe still on the island.

Must be a Gen 3 FJR.

 

[GizmoKW]

Per Spotwalla, a rider is lined up at the Port Angeles ferry to Vancouver Island. It's a day trip, so no return to the mainland until 3pm.... 1,750 miles looks doable to MN by 8am Friday but man o' man, that's getting tight...

I used to live in Victoria and have ridden that ferry many times. One possible option is for the rider to travel to the lower mainland of BC (Swartz Bay - Twassen) as the generally have hourly sailings. This may not be faster, and I don't know if it would open up other possible bonus locations. I realize there isn't much margin on time but thought I'd mention there are other ways off the island.

 

[russperry]

Four showing up now - Like you said Iggy, just give it a few minutes. Glad to see they're all still in the hunt!

 

[Ignacio]

A rider cruised through my home town in Washington several hours ago. Seems like multiple stuff over in Western Washington and something in Eastern Washington. And something east of Portland.

The rider waiting to Vancouver Island puzzles me a bit. Haven't seen anybody else head up there. Maybe there's a bonus out there, but to use it to get east would be an odd choice given the morass of Vancouver traffic this afternoon and this evening.

 

[RenoJohn]

Three just popped up on Spotwalla in North Sydney! But there's still one reporting in Newfie - must have missed the ride? If so that would be a real blow.

His spot may still be firing from the bowels of the ferry, or maybe for some other reason hasn't connected to sattelite since the journey. Or, like you say, maybe still on the island.

Must be a Gen 3 FJR.

No doubt.

There are countless potential reasons, weight being one of them, every ferry vessel has weight restrictions.

However, I find it unlikely that any of these amazing island riders would be foolish enough to choose a gen3, a bike with consistently pathetic rally performance, especially compared to it's older siblings.

 

[JohnF]

What is going to be interesting as this all pans out...which strategy gets the big points. The big ride to Newfoundland/Labrador for those big points in a small area OR get a whole lot of strings with high point value at stop 5, without the stress of that big ride. The 5 who went there are great planners, so one would think that was the winning strategy. Have heard various rumors of how many points could be grabbed by going there but don't know the real numbers. But, just talked with a friend who has had a real good (not great) ride for this leg, and he right now has more points just for this leg than it takes to be a finisher.

I am betting all of the big 5 go for at least one high point string on the return to MN. They know 4 of their competitors matched their ride, if they want to move up, they have to do something bold.

JEF

 

[RenoJohn]

What is going to be interesting as this all pans out...which strategy gets the big points. The big ride to Newfoundland/Labrador for those big points in a small area OR get a whole lot of strings with high point value at stop 5, without the stress of that big ride. The 5 who went there are great planners, so one would think that was the winning strategy. Have heard various rumors of how many points could be grabbed by going there but don't know the real numbers. But, just talked with a friend who has had a real good (not great) ride for this leg, and he right now has more points just for this leg than it takes to be a finisher.
I am betting all of the big 5 go for at least one high point string on the return to MN. They know 4 of their competitors matched their ride, if they want to move up, they have to do something bold.

JEF

If you're one of the island five, you have a reasonably good grasp of what the other island riders have in comparison to your own points. So not only are they all living in each other's heads, but they're also making assessments on what to go for to move up notches against the others, vs playing playing it safe to be a finisher. If you're in a top spot, you know the guys behind you are gunning for you, so how defensive do you go.

Whenever you're in a fight, the guy to fear is the guy with nothing to lose. How many of these guys would risk DNF for time in an attempt to get the points needed to WIN. One, that I can think of, maybe more.

RJ

 

[GizmoKW]

The rider waiting to Vancouver Island puzzles me a bit. Haven't seen anybody else head up there. Maybe there's a bonus out there, but to use it to get east would be an odd choice given the morass of Vancouver traffic this afternoon and this evening.

Thanks for the perspective. I've been watching regularly but not as much as you, and not zoomed in much on that part of the continent, so I wondered if I had missed someone else going to Vancouver Island.

As for the Vancouver traffic, I don't think that should be a big deal as the Twassen terminal is a [relatively] long ways from the biggest traffic congestion of Vancouver. Having said that, I probably just jinxed myself as I will be within 30 minutes of that by the end of the week

 

[cas42]

Speaking of which, does anyone know how the rest bonuses work for leg 3 -- how many are there? Are they designated to certain nights or used at the rider's discretion?

Sorry, I don't, but my friend has been going hard since he departed the CP yesterday. I'm hoping that he gets off the bike for a bit of bonus rest soon. He knows what he's doing, but that doesn't mean that I don't worry a bit.

Speaking of which, does anyone know how the rest bonuses work for leg 3 -- how many are there? Are they designated to certain nights or used at the rider's discretion?

Sorry, I don't, but my friend has been going hard since he departed the CP yesterday. I'm hoping that he gets off the bike for a bit of bonus rest soon. He knows what he's doing, but that doesn't mean that I don't worry a bit.

Yes, this exactly!

 

[cas42]

Matt, fairly certain this was in play on this leg:
Big fish

Ya think?

Matt, fairly certain this was in play on this leg:
Big fish

Ya think?

Where is that located?

 

[El Gordo]

Per Spotwalla, a rider is lined up at the Port Angeles ferry to Vancouver Island. It's a day trip, so no return to the mainland until 3pm.... 1,750 miles looks doable to MN by 8am Friday but man o' man, that's getting tight...

BC Ferries runs frequent sailings back to the mainland from both Sidney and Nanaimo. Also motorcycles have priority loading with BC Ferries, so it is rare to not be able to get onto a sailing.

 

[Jaugie]

Three just popped up on Spotwalla in North Sydney! But there's still one reporting in Newfie - must have missed the ride? If so that would be a real blow.

His spot may still be firing from the bowels of the ferry, or maybe for some other reason hasn't connected to sattelite since the journey. Or, like you say, maybe still on the island.

Must be a Gen 3 FJR.

No doubt.

There are countless potential reasons, weight being one of them, every ferry vessel has weight restrictions.

However, I find it unlikely that any of these amazing island riders would be foolish enough to choose a gen3, a bike with consistently pathetic rally performance, especially compared to it's older siblings.

It could be worse, there could be a Harley in the mix or heaven forbid a Honda.

 

[Ignacio]

As for the Vancouver traffic, I don't think that should be a big deal as the Twassen terminal is a [relatively] long ways from the biggest traffic congestion of Vancouver. Having said that, I probably just jinxed myself as I will be within 30 minutes of that by the end of the week

Living in the region if I'm out in Port Angeles and want to head east...it's all relatively slow-going for a while. Option A: You got two-laners, timing of a 35 minute ferry, Seattle traffic, and finally release to I-90 to boogy east at a good clip. Option B: Like before, but around the Tacoma horn of more tow-laners filled with commuters. Option C: Or you have a longer ferry ride, some island two-laners, another 2+ hour ferry ride, Vancouver and endless suburbs clear past Abbotsford, and then a two-lane national highway to meander east. That latter one is a really pretty ride though....maybe they're going for stuff up towards and past Kelowna.

 

[Canadian FJR]

How delayed are spot hits.

Canadian FJR

 

[FJR Flyer]

A rider cruised through my home town in Washington several hours ago. Seems like multiple stuff over in Western Washington and something in Eastern Washington. And something east of Portland.
The rider waiting to Vancouver Island puzzles me a bit. Haven't seen anybody else head up there. Maybe there's a bonus out there, but to use it to get east would be an odd choice given the morass of Vancouver traffic this afternoon and this evening.

Does he/she have to take another ferry to get to Vancouver?

 

[eflyguy]

How delayed are spot hits.

There's no one answer - it can vary based on many factors. Sometimes the last received beacon appears to be current - for hours at a time. They may have shut it off. They shut off themselves after 24hrs, so if you forget...

 

[101stpathfinder]

I know some observers know who the Ferry riders were, but I can only read the report and narrow down the riders to some big riders not mentioned. That would not have been a venture to those playing it safe for a sure finish and a 3 digit finish. There must have been HUGE points involved in such a bold choice of routes (?)