FJRForum Official 2021 Iron Butt Rally Tracking/Analysis Thread

[Ignacio]

Whomever they are, heading to Atomic City for the experimental breeder reactor #1 bonus is not a good move right now.  Maybe they lost track of what day it is?  This rider was sleeping last night, so I don't think it was David Uhl, but that's just a WAG.

Depends on who it is.  If it is a mid-fielder or one under duress in the reports, I'd agree.  But if it's a Top Dog....1750 miles in 28.5 hours at a 61 mph average is par for the course.

I don't see anybody that couldn't physically make it in time at this point within IBA/IBR limits.

 

[2DFlier]

With 29 hours till the window opens is it surprising so many are so close to Carmel?

 

[Ignacio]

With 29 hours till the window opens is it surprising so many are so close to Carmel?

One trick up RM's sleeves is to make points by a CP and then either offer points for riders to go past it for even miss going past for required other points.  Even as a veteran it's a weird slightly unnatural feeling.

For example, it caught Bob Lilley in 2013 as one of the 34 required Pony Express stops from Pittsburgh to Sacramento was about 6 miles past the CP....and he missed it.

Day 8 Report from the 2013 Rally

Bob Lilley was also tracking Owen’s route and had the Pony Express combo locked up. He photographed the 33rd express marker at the Sacramento State University campus at 6:15 p.m. The 34th and final stop on his endless pony ride was six miles to the west in downtown Sacramento. He didn’t go there. For reasons that Bob will spend the rest of his life wondering about, he turned instead to the northeast to pick up two bonuses in Roseville and Auburn worth 854 points and lost 10,752 points in the trade. He arrived at the finish three minutes late, but 50th overall instead of 5th.

 

[user 213]

Depends on who it is.  If it is a mid-fielder or one under duress in the reports, I'd agree.  But if it's a Top Dog....1750 miles in 28.5 hours at a 61 mph average is par for the course.

I don't see anybody that couldn't physically make it in time at this point within IBA/IBR limits.

Arriving at checkpoint #1 burnt and crispy doesn't sound like Top Dog activity.  Never mind the F'ing the dog done earlier and the "plan" no one else saw.  Can it be done?  Sure.  But if that rider follows the pack now, heading up I-15 to I-90 and East from there, No Bueno.  Direct path to Carmel would be a loss of 2 hours due to time changes too.  1660ish from Arco, ID to Carmel, IN gives them a few hours to spare.  Indirect path up to I-90 and bonus collecting... Barely enough time if they ride RN plus.  They call you Nut Job when you go to Key West (twice, admittedly), I wonder what they will call this guy?

 

[GearHeadGrrrl]

Agreed, right now with barely 24 hours to make the Indiana checkpoint there's a couple riders 1600-1700 miles out in Montana and Wyoming. They've got rural freeways with high speed limits most of the way, but barely time for a nap. That's cutting it too close, chasing every last bonus at the risk of being time barred if there's the slightest delay in their 24 hour sprint to Indiana.

 

[Ignacio]

Arriving at checkpoint #1 burnt and crispy doesn't sound like Top Dog activity.  Never mind the F'ing the dog done earlier and the "plan" no one else saw.  Can it be done?  Sure.  But if that rider follows the pack now, heading up I-15 to I-90 and East from there, No Bueno.  Direct path to Carmel would be a loss of 2 hours due to time changes too. 

Just an FYI that I factored in the timezone changes when I did the calcs 3 hours ago.  And here it is 24 hours until the CP opens (again adjusted for timezones) and the two out west are 1500 - 1600 miles out...about the same rate is required to get to the CP as earlier. (I do note the one in Jackson would concern me...that's slower roads than I-90 to be sure)

I'll be watching them in the coming hours and see if they keep up the pace.

And the truism about not burning yourself out on the first leg is on the assumption that Legs 2 and 3 are worth progressively more than the first leg.  It's always been that way in the IBR, but wouldn't it be interesting if this rally is different?  Earls has always taken bits from rallies he experienced....remember the one Chalmers flipped the script and made the first leg WAY more than the last leg?

 

[GearHeadGrrrl]

Yep, still two riders west of the Dakotas and a ways off the Interstate. Normal folks would have forgotten about bonuses and high tailed it east on the Interstate hours ago, but these two must have a chance at a high finish so they're willing to gamble the chance of being time barred at the checkpoint for more points. Or at least they think they're top finishers...

 

[user 213]

My read of the daily reports was that they were told that the leg 3 bonuses would be larger than the bonuses in the full rally pack.  That would indicate they are staying true to the increasing point levels as legs move forward.  1 all rally bonus per state is interesting too.  Some may go for the far reaches now, hoping it will allow them to focus on the leg packs on leg 2.  Leg 3 will be Get Thee West again and we know what that's like.

I remember Chalmer's tricks.   But I also remember that Jeff doesn't like tricks.  He is most certainly NOT of the RM against the Rider's genre.

I see one rider could make the 8pm checkpoint window 24 hours early...  Betting they breeze right on by and snag some of the all rally bonuses in nearby states before heading back.

 

[2DFlier]

Day 3 Outtakes
...making it through Taiwan without crashing.

...I am in Mozambique.Montana,

 

[Ignacio]

My read of the daily reports was that they were told that the leg 3 bonuses would be larger than the bonuses in the full rally pack.  That would indicate they are staying true to the increasing point levels as legs move forward. 

I missed that detail. I guess I should be a better armchair rallier and go back to the reports.

 

[user 213]

WE're not riding it, we may as well have some fun.  I wish Jeff was Rally Planner in '13.  I might have saved some money on museum fees. 

 

[2DFlier]

One trick up RM's sleeves is to make points by a CP and then either offer points for riders to go past it for even miss going past for required other points.  Even as a veteran it's a weird slightly unnatural feeling.

For example, it caught Bob Lilley in 2013 as one of the 34 required Pony Express stops from Pittsburgh to Sacramento was about 6 miles past the CP....and he missed it.

Day 8 Report from the 2013 Rally

The audacity to take this on and the mental and physical stamina to pull it off is truly remarkable.

 

[BigOgre]

Anyone notice where the rider leaving(?) NYC ended up going to around there?

 

[DiggerDr.]

Rider in Florida has no room for any issues.

 

[Auburn]

Rider in Florida has no room for any issues.

classic risk vs reward.  Question is: was the reward worth the risk?  Time will tell on this one.  

 

[Blind Squirrel]

classic risk vs reward.  Question is: was the reward worth the risk?  Time will tell on this one.  

Looks like the ND rider is just as far away as the FL rider.

 

[GearHeadGrrrl]

Yup, ND rider is about a thousand miles out with 11 hours to go, 13 before the checkpoint closes. All freeway, but speed limits drop to 70 starting in Fargo, plus Chicago rush hour traffic. FL rider has the same problem, 1000+ miles through several big cities.

 

[DiggerDr.]

With road construction. A performance award in a construction zone in Indiana will ruin your day.

 

[user 213]

The farthest flung rider on I-94 has a pretty thin chance of making it before DNF.  The rider on I-80 hopefully will, but they will be crispy and into penalty if anything happens or they try to get more bonuses.

Looks like the rider that was going into FL changed their mind and turned around.  Maybe they made it to the bonus? About 950 miles to go in the next ~11 hours before penalty.  86 mph plus average speed.  Even going before DNF that's a pretty high average speed of ~73.  I guess we'll eventually find out if the points were worth it.

Still some riders going after bonuses on the way to the checkpoint and far away, but more do-able averages than the Western edge riders.

 

[biknflyfisher]

Any word on the status of the KTM 2-smoke??