FJRForum Official 2021 Iron Butt Rally Tracking/Analysis Thread

[GearHeadGrrrl]

The farthest flung rider on I-94 has a pretty thin chance of making it before DNF.  The rider on I-80 hopefully will, but they will be crispy and into penalty if anything happens or they try to get more bonuses.

Looks like the rider that was going into FL changed their mind and turned around.  Maybe they made it to the bonus? About 950 miles to go in the next ~11 hours before penalty.  86 mph plus average speed.  Even going before DNF that's a pretty high average speed of ~73.  I guess we'll eventually find out if the points were worth it.

Still some riders going after bonuses on the way to the checkpoint and far away, but more do-able averages than the Western edge riders.

I think two riders went for the Key West "sucker bonus", the first will probably make the checkpoint without penalty, the second made it to Key West about 2am EDT and has the same problem as the ND rider.

 

[user 213]

I've done that slog, KW to Kearney, NE on the clock.  Farther than the current rider needs to go.  Took me ~26 hours.  I made the checkpoint by 15 minutes.  Had to ride past the checkpoint to get the last bonus, located in the same city.  It would have been easier if I hadn't gotten up in Tallahassee that morning at 4 am before heading to KW.   Things that make sense on rally time...

If they were in KW at 2am, that's a pretty hard slog back to Carmel.  Construction, traffic, etc.  They'll be in penalty if they make it.

 

[twistedcricket]

I wish Spotwalla would overlay weather.  There was a big storm overnight and two riders near Omahell are likely soggy and not getting any drier heading east.  That might slow them down a bit (wet roads, vehicle spray)

 

[Bounce]

I'm an IBR folk and not obsessed with Beemers, final drives or being stranded...unless I have no bars of service.....then I'm more stressed than obsessed.

You're an IBR folk too! Are you obsessed?  Inquiring minds want to know.

But look at the numbers and you'll see we seem a distant 3rd afte BMW and Honda. Even HD is nearly as many as FJRs.

 

[twistedcricket]

But look at the numbers and you'll see we seem a distant 3rd afte BMW and Honda. Even HD is nearly as many as FJRs.

I am really interested to see that HD PanAmerican's progress and how it fairs.  First run of a new engine & chassis (I think) bike from HD

 

[DiggerDr.]

My shop bay is literally 150 feet from I-65 south of Lebanon, in. Been hoping to catch sight of one going by. Missed 2 so far. Been looking for FJR,s, the Pan America and the KTM. Unfortunately, I dont look at the right time evidently.

 

[DiggerDr.]

The rider on the southwest side of Indy had been there since about 9:00 PM yesterday. First one in town.  Either awful tired, confident or saving energy for the next leg.

 

[SGBennett]

Yup, ND rider is about a thousand miles out with 11 hours to go, 13 before the checkpoint closes. All freeway, but speed limits drop to 70 starting in Fargo, plus Chicago rush hour traffic. FL rider has the same problem, 1000+ miles through several big cities.

The rider can avoid Chicago, but not the Minneapolis and St. Paul.

 

[SGBennett]

One trick up RM's sleeves is to make points by a CP and then either offer points for riders to go past it for even miss going past for required other points.  Even as a veteran it's a weird slightly unnatural feeling.

For example, it caught Bob Lilley in 2013 as one of the 34 required Pony Express stops from Pittsburgh to Sacramento was about 6 miles past the CP....and he missed it.

Tricks didn’t impact Bob’s rally eight years ago; reading comprehension did…

 

[ChrisW]

The time lag on the spot page is also unknown, and I imagine could be different for each rider.

 

[RJAMT]

7.5 hrs to penalty time and 9.5 to DQ. I don't see how the rider currently  passing Ashburn, GA is going to make it from 700 miles out. They would have to average 93 mph to avoid penalties or 74 mph to not get time DQ'd. 

The 74 mph average sounds reasonable until you realize they still have to get through Atlanta, Chattanooga, Nashville, Bowling Green and Louisville. Hit any one of them near rush hour and it is probably game over.

EDIT: Plus Carmel is on the wrong side of Indy for them so add another city to transit. At least it will be near 10 p.m. then.

 

[heynowref]

an update

https://ironbutt.com/ibr2021/IBR_2021_Day_4.htm

 

[DiggerDr.]

On 465 from I-65 on the south side of Indy it's probably 1/2 hour to Carmel. And the north side can be bad at times.

 

[twistedcricket]

Wonder what is going on with the rider still west of Iowa City (as of 2p central and I realize that the spotwalla is delayed).  They haven't progressed as quickly across the state as another rider who was on I-80.

 

[GearHeadGrrrl]

Iowa rider has crossed the river into Illinois and making progress down I-74. There's a rider that doesn't seem to be moving northeast of Memphis, maybe broke down? The last Key West rider is just heading into Atlanta now at 4:30pm EDT, will he even make it out of the Atlanta metro by the time the checkpoint closes?

 

[twistedcricket]

Iowa rider has crossed the river into Illinois and making progress down I-74. There's a rider that doesn't seem to be moving northeast of Memphis, maybe broke down? The last Key West rider is just heading into Atlanta now at 4:30pm EDT, will he even make it out of the Atlanta metro by the time the checkpoint closes?

yeah, it just seemed like of two going through IA, one was reallllly slow. They're likely on a pace to get to the CP on time, but I wondered if it was weather/wind or something.

 

[irish phil]

Seams Chicago traffic has caught up to the last two riders heading south. They can only sit there and watch

their ETA get ever closer to the penalty window. Been there, done that. Very frustrating.

 

[Tyler]

Seams Chicago traffic has caught up to the last two riders heading south. They can only sit there and watch

their ETA get ever closer to the penalty window. Been there, done that. Very frustrating.

Hi Phil!  B)

 

[irish phil]

Hi Phil!  B)

Hi Tyler! Been a while. HW3 I think. Looks like your having fun without me! LOL

. Miss you!

 

[eddiememphis]

45 minutes until penalty. The guy in Utah better hurry!