The ST market and the FJR

[Jkern1]

Lets look at this from another perspective that i feel is a good one. What is the total "SAM" of rider that are in the market for a sport-touring bike? Also what are the buying habits of that type of rider? Out of the overall riding community sport-tours make up a very small percentage, so the number of people that are even considering these type of bikes is limited. Also most people that buy ST bikes hold on to them for a while, they do not flip them every year for the next best thing. So the number of units sold will slowly decrease to the extent that the FJR grabs more market share, or the potential buying base increases. There is one major factor that can offset this, which is competition. The ST space is getting very crowded.(THIS IS A GOOD THING) You have bikes like the, ST1300,FJR,k1200gt,new concourse,R1200rt,Sprint st, ECT. ECT. The point being there are many good choices for ST bikes on the market, so it will fragment the overall ST market even more. Yamaha knows this, and that is why they did the PDP. But, with the success of the PDP they may have over estimated what the true demand will be in the market place. Because the bubble of early adaptors have probably already bought their FJR and will not be buying another bike for 3-7 years. So i believe that in 2007 or 2008 we will see many FJR sitting on showroom floor, with heavy discounts, not because it is a bad bike, but because of the over saturation of the ST market. So in conclusion is the FJR market drying up? Maybe, 2007 will be a year where we can really see if that is true.

This is a repost but i'm a little interested to see what people think about this. True, False or just indifferent

 

[warsw]

Lets look at this from another perspective that i feel is a good one. What is the total "SAM" of rider that are in the market for a sport-touring bike? Also what are the buying habits of that type of rider? Out of the overall riding community sport-tours make up a very small percentage, so the number of people that are even considering these type of bikes is limited. Also most people that buy ST bikes hold on to them for a while, they do not flip them every year for the next best thing. So the number of units sold will slowly decrease to the extent that the FJR grabs more market share, or the potential buying base increases. There is one major factor that can offset this, which is competition. The ST space is getting very crowded.(THIS IS A GOOD THING) You have bikes like the, ST1300,FJR,k1200gt,new concourse,R1200rt,Sprint st, ECT. ECT. The point being there are many good choices for ST bikes on the market, so it will fragment the overall ST market even more. Yamaha knows this, and that is why they did the PDP. But, with the success of the PDP they may have over estimated what the true demand will be in the market place. Because the bubble of early adaptors have probably already bought their FJR and will not be buying another bike for 3-7 years. So i believe that in 2007 or 2008 we will see many FJR sitting on showroom floor, with heavy discounts, not because it is a bad bike, but because of the over saturation of the ST market. So in conclusion is the FJR market drying up? Maybe, 2007 will be a year where we can really see if that is true.
This is a repost but i'm a little interested to see what people think about this. True, False or just indifferent

I do agree with what was said to a point but on the other side of the coin, I think that the Sport-touring market is becoming more popular. I see a lot of the, once younger generation, moving from the sport bike to sport-touring and some, like myself, ex cruiser riders looking for a little more performance. I also think that some of the good sport-touring bikes now coming on the market will also draw some changes. I think riders are now seeing how capable the sport-touring bike is. My .02

 

[croc]

Interesting to note that in Australia the sale of bikes has strengthened because Baby Boomers with high net disposable incomes are revisiting their youth and returning to biking (which they might have done for a short period of time in their teens). As a result these guys are buying a HD and joining HOG or buying a sports bike rather than a ST. There are heaps of low km 999's, Busa's and R1's in the second hand market cos they either frighten the beeeejeesus out of the owner or they find its not the style of riding they wanted to do. I rode an R1 for a while and found it too hard on my poor old wrists hence the FJR. Also, the 40+ year old riders getting knocked are now much higher than the national average compared to other age groups. Are you guys seeing the same trends?

 

[madmike2]

Since I'm waaaay out of the loop,

What's a "SAM"?

 

[Luke]

The possible market for the ST bikes is still wide open. If, by matter of marketing or word-of-mouth, a large number of the cruiser crowd actually ride an ST bike I believe many of them will want them. Once they taste the power, handling, braking and comfort combined in one package many of them will no longer be satisfied with any cruiser. This potential market is huge and getting larger every day.

The trick is how to get the leather club and poser look-a-likes to try something else besides vanilla.

 

[FJRottie]

I don't think the ST market is drying up at all. I personally set it getting bigger all around me.

Yes there are always the new riders moving in and new younglings getting bikes as the elders are dying off, but I see many "moves" within the bike community to the ST bikes as well. There is also the ST bike as 1 of 2 or more bikes owned in one household.

The Feej still seems to be doing well but the AE purchases may be slow.

Also, many of the FJRs may only be selling at the "known" dealers with the great reputation. This may lead to other dealers "thinking" it is slow.

There are a few dealers that are selling many FJRs because of their great price and service.

Well all know where to get the best warranty price as well in the US.

 

[madmike2]

The trick is how to get the leather club and poser look-a-likes to try something else besides vanilla.

I vote we leave them alone. 1.) An FJR would look silly with all that fringe. 2.) I like to ride mine farther than the next biker bar. 3.) Their bikes are not "vanilla". 4.) Insert favorite stereotype here________________.

I have friends that belong to that particular mode of biking. They enjoy theirs and I enjoy mine, and we enjoy riding together when we do. A couple of them have switched over to "bagger" style because of my sport-touring use of hard cases, though they would never leave their style of motorcycle because they love of V-twins.

As other have stated, as some sportbike afficianados, uhm, physically mature or begin to collect wives and S.O.s who wish to share combined time together one would expect the ST market to grow. The key is that it may "grow", not explode. It is possible that the original excitement of the FJR coming to North America has subsided, but already we have owners of '03s and '04s upgrading to '06s and '07s, thought that percentage is small.

More interest is generated as new bikes (like the New-Gen Connie) come to the forefront. In the end, all we have are opinions and hopes that others would find the same passion we have. Until then, we await the hard numbers. It is possible that the market could peak or have a lull. Personally, I'd bet that Yamaha has crunched the numbers pretty well and is expecting a more stable sales year than an explosive one. Methinks the AE hasn't been the sales force they'd hoped for.

 

[tripletango]

There are cruiser guys out there that will see the light as well as aging sport bike riders that want to straighten out and still haul ass. The segment will continue to grow. Other segments may suffer.

 

[sprint_st]

Madmike, we must be kindred spirits because my first thought was what the hell is a "SAM." My old buds would come up with surface to air missile, but that's about it. This whole thing reminds me of Econ 101. If you take 100 economists and let them predict what the economy is going to do over the next ten years, maybe one or two will get it right, get Nobel prizes and carry on the myth that economists can accurately predict the future of the economy. Fact is that they are pretty good at saying why things happened in the past but are just as blind as the rest of us when it comes to operating a crystal ball. Predicting the fate of the FJR in the wondrous future of sport touring is just like predicting the economy. For me, the FJR is a great bike that holds it's own against the competition. I don't have much positive to say about the poser crowd so I'll be nice and not say anything about them. If the new Connie comes out and is better than the FJR in the world ST rodeo, who cares. Just as long as there are enough FJR's out there to keep a good farkle trade alive, I'll be happy.

 

[tripletango]

here is another ST to add to the list

 

[tripletango]

This is a new generation of Sport Tourer. All accessories available.

 

[ohiofjr]

The guys that have bikes as a social activity, trip to the local pub, a poker run or two won't switch from cruisers just because Feejer does not have enough chrome or volume to fit the image. Mostly the only guys that really talked to me about the FJR are the ones that have cruisers, usually metric, and are starting to figure out how nice a fairing w/lowers and lower bars is. There have also been a few guys looking for fast yet comfy, but they seem to usually be looking at bikes like a Tiger or a GS12 as well. I really don't see a change in quantity sold in the market segment over the next few years.

 

[DocDanDC]

That Tiger bike looks to be a "Street Fighter" style bike. I saw a show on the TV about that style getting popular with Bay Area Clubs. Apparently one of the things they do is take the front end off of the bike and put the GXSR front end on it. Looks like the Tiger bike already has the look. I wonder what the gears are like.

 

[BrunDog]

Lets look at this from another perspective that i feel is a good one. What is the total "SAM" of rider that are in the market for a sport-touring bike? Also what are the buying habits of that type of rider? Out of the overall riding community sport-tours make up a very small percentage, so the number of people that are even considering these type of bikes is limited. Also most people that buy ST bikes hold on to them for a while, they do not flip them every year for the next best thing. So the number of units sold will slowly decrease to the extent that the FJR grabs more market share, or the potential buying base increases. There is one major factor that can offset this, which is competition. The ST space is getting very crowded.(THIS IS A GOOD THING) You have bikes like the, ST1300,FJR,k1200gt,new concourse,R1200rt,Sprint st, ECT. ECT. The point being there are many good choices for ST bikes on the market, so it will fragment the overall ST market even more. Yamaha knows this, and that is why they did the PDP. But, with the success of the PDP they may have over estimated what the true demand will be in the market place. Because the bubble of early adaptors have probably already bought their FJR and will not be buying another bike for 3-7 years. So i believe that in 2007 or 2008 we will see many FJR sitting on showroom floor, with heavy discounts, not because it is a bad bike, but because of the over saturation of the ST market. So in conclusion is the FJR market drying up? Maybe, 2007 will be a year where we can really see if that is true.
This is a repost but i'm a little interested to see what people think about this. True, False or just indifferent

Is this one of those "throw it against the wall and see what sticks" posts, or do you actually believe what you wrote? What metrics do you have to make any such determinations with respect to the ST market? You have no solid evidence, do you? Honestly, I do not agree with any of your assesments and expect you will be proven wrong.

Fact is that the ST segment is gaining share against the others. There are several analyst predictions that the motorcycle market in the US has peaked for this roughly 12 year cycle, others claim is has a few years to go. If the whole market is shrinking, ST sales should go flat. If it continues to expand, it will continue to do well. How many dealers are you visiting that have 2006 models laying around? None, I bet.

-BD

 

[Jkern1]

Do i have hard numbers in front of me? No. though i do have a fairly good idea about markets and the way they operate. Though some numbers that i have seen say that only 2% of the bikes in america are Sport-touring bikes. Also in my post i said that with out continued growth in the ST market sales would decline. The real point here is that the competion in the ST is out pacing the growth in the space. With more choices the overall market becomes more fragmented. Again this is not a slam at all on the FJR, it is a great bike. But i think that we are going to see overall ST bike sales grow slowly, but the induvidual bike units will decrease due to more choices. Hence deep discounting on unsold inventory.

 

[madmike2]

here is another ST to add to the list

I must admit I like that bike, and I am not a fan of V-twins (lateral or longitudinal). I sat on the display model at the San Mateo bike show. It feels lighter than the FJR (of course w/o fluids). I sat mor "in" to the bike rather than "on" it like the FJR. The seat height must be lower and the fairing a bit taller to the seat.

Okay, some things are a little dated, like the handlebar mounted mirrors, but the bike overall is interesting to me. I know a couple of guys who own Guzzis and they love them. Then again, w/o much dealer support they do most of their own maintenance, but its pretty simple on that brand.

[SIZE=12pt]Question: What's "SAM"?[/SIZE]

 

[Windjammer]

Do i have hard numbers in front of me? No. though i do have a fairly good idea about markets and the way they operate. Though some numbers that i have seen say that only 2% of the bikes in america are Sport-touring bikes. Also in my post i said that with out continued growth in the ST market sales would decline. The real point here is that the competion in the ST is out pacing the growth in the space. With more choices the overall market becomes more fragmented. Again this is not a slam at all on the FJR, it is a great bike. But i think that we are going to see overall ST bike sales grow slowly, but the induvidual bike units will decrease due to more choices. Hence deep discounting on unsold inventory.

1. If only 2% of motorcycles in America are ST's - then there is HUGE growth potential in the ST market since 98% of the buyer pool has yet to experience ownership.

2. More choices in the ST market will increase competition, and thus improve the breed. As the ST's become more capable, they will become more viable to more users, and their popularity and market share should grow.

3. Fragmentation of the market should also lure more potential buyers. Persons who may not have been interested in the ST1300, for example, might buy an FJR and discover they like ST's and stick with them. That same rider may later decide they like an updated version of the ST1300, and trade off their FJR. But if Yamaha had never fragmented the market by bringing the FJR, how many riders would have simply bought a different style of bike? The point here is that fragmentation can also serve to widen the market.

4. If you see deep discounts on a motor vehicle, it means the manufacturer blew it. Discounting is the number one way to devalue your product in the eyes of the customer. Using deep discounts to create artificial demand for a product is a lose-lose deal for the manufacturer - you need look no further than ford and GM for evidence of this. Manufacturers will take the factors we're describing here and try to estimate demand - if they do their job right then they build just enough product to meet demand.

 

[Ignacio]

Unless you know the internal manufacturing and sales counts for FJR's each year...it's just speculation. Yes, it's a maturing product, but if FJRs lie on the showroom floor that could also be from overproduction. There were (and are still) a bunch of '06 and '05's on floors even with the PDP. It's how I picked mine up. That said, I'm sure a factor will be competition as well.

But, until or unless we have hard numbers....it's all supposition.

 

[Knifemaker]

Not sure what "SAM" means..perhaps Silly And Meaningless.

From what I have seen the ST market is growing, and the fact that there are more models to choose from does not mean they will start "discounting" ST bikes. Likely the opposite, they will begin addinng more stock farkles as options to attract buyers. If Yamaha , Honda, or Kawasaki does not offer a GPS as an option within the next 6 years I will be surprised.

I get alot of looks and alot of questions about my FJR from many diffrent groups , and all seem impressed. I know a few that have sold their cruisers and gone with a ST bike. I would not go as far to say it may be the "next wave" , but I don't think you will see many abandoned in dealer showrooms...any more than other models/types.

As for what everyone else in the motorcycle world thinks, and what bike they end up getting, I am not really concerned, as I have my FJR and life is good. SAM? mmm how about WTFC?

:yahoo:

KM