World Series

[Fred W]

If you do a satitistcal analysis on baseball schedules, scores, and teams, you see that the wide variance in score margins has very little to do with the teams and how they play but instead is simply normal random variations of coin flipping. If two playoff caliber teams were to play a 1000 game series, one team would win by about 525-475. And 5% of the games would have a 10+ point difference. Last night was just one of those 5% games. Nothing to do with team goodness, rust, or anything else.
Baseball is nice drama, but with the best teams having winning percentages of 60% and the worst teams 40%, no game is decided by random chance to such a high degree.

- Mark

Negative on the statistical probability of a 10 run difference (commonly called a blow-out in baseball parlance). The differential may have been considerably more if the leading team had not stopped pressing due to unwritten rules of sportsmanship. Also there's that feeling in the back of your mind that it is often best to "let sleeping dogs lie."

I still say Sox in 5. I have a feeling they will lose game 3. It'll take em a couple of days to catch their breath in Denver, coming from sea level.

I heard there may be a new firmware mod they can install that will take care of it though... :glare:

 

[FJR_pig]

If you do a satitistcal analysis on baseball schedules, scores, and teams, you see that the wide variance in score margins has very little to do with the teams and how they play but instead is simply normal random variations of coin flipping. If two playoff caliber teams were to play a 1000 game series, one team would win by about 525-475. And 5% of the games would have a 10+ point difference. Last night was just one of those 5% games. Nothing to do with team goodness, rust, or anything else.
Baseball is nice drama, but with the best teams having winning percentages of 60% and the worst teams 40%, no game is decided by random chance to such a high degree.

- Mark

Negative on the statistical probability of a 10 run difference (commonly called a blow-out in baseball parlance). The differential may have been considerably more if the leading team had not stopped pressing due to unwritten rules of sportsmanship. Also there's that feeling in the back of your mind that it is often best to "let sleeping dogs lie."

I heard there may be a new firmware mod they can install that will take care of it though... :glare:

Huh??!! Damn, you have to have a PhD to know what you two are talking about. A comfy chair and a beer is all I need to understand for game 2!

 

[OrangevaleFJR]

Baseball without beer is boring. Homer Simpson proved this.

 

[Fred W]

Baseball without beer is boring. Homer Simpson proved this.

Mmmmm, beer.

 

[snikr]

Baseball without beer is boring. Homer Simpson proved this.

Almost everything without beer is boring! :blink:

Tom

 

[Fred W]

Baseball without beer is boring. Homer Simpson proved this.

Almost everything without beer is boring! :blink:

Tom

Perhaps the most germane beer quote of all times:

Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy.

Benjamin Franklin

Ben was one smaht f*k

 

[FJReady]

I hope the Rockies put their A team on the field this weekend. 'Cuz I'd like to see the Sox win the series at home. I'm guessing the mile high air will help the Rox and hinder the Sox.

Are the outfiled walls further from home plate at Coors field; to make up for the longer fly ball potential at altitude?

 

[Fred W]

I hope the Rockies put their A team on the field this weekend. 'Cuz I'd like to see the Sox win the series at home. I'm guessing the mile high air will help the Rox and hinder the Sox.

I don't think the Rockies are bad enough to be swept. I'd just like to see the Sox take one of the 3 in CO.

Are the outfiled walls further from home plate at Coors field; to make up for the longer fly ball potential at altitude?

Yes. It is one of the bigger outfields in baseball.

Dimensions: Left field: 347 ft.; left-center: 390 ft.; center field: 415 ft.; right-center: 375 ft.; right field: 350 ft.; backstop: 56 ft.

 

[markjenn]

Negative on the statistical probability of a 10 run difference (commonly called a blow-out in baseball parlance).

Ignore if you have no interest in statistics.

Well assuming the two teams are equally skilled (defined as each team have the same probability and distribution of scoring in any particular inning) the probability of a 10-run difference in the game depends on what statistical distribution you assume. Obviously, the runs scored for any particular team are highly skewed since they can't score less than 0 and can score up infinity. But regardless, there is definitely a chance you'll get a 10-run difference - it's certainly not likely, but it's not a vanishingly small percentage either - statistically it is going to happen now and then with no correlation to the goodness of the two teams.

And while the Sox may have held back to avoid running up the score, there is another influence that works in the opposite direction - the team that is behind has to start taking more risks to have any chance of winning, so that start sacrificing their chances for a small number of runs to have a some chance at a large number - it's like Vegas or the lottery where you agree to probably lose a small amount of money so you can have a small chance at winning big.

The point is that if you assume baseball score "events" are basically random, you get approximately the same distribution that we see in historical data. You can't prove anything statistically, but this points to baseball being a game of mostly random chance. As they say, both the best and worst teams in baseball win about 4 out of 10 and lose about 4 out of 10. The difference between the best and worst is what they do with those other two games.

If you want to see a good expression of how a game based almost ENTIRELY on random chance can be very entertaining, watch "Deal or No Deal" for awhile. Here is a game in which the only skill involved is choosing when to cash out, but where the cash out awards offered by the banker are basically the amounts left on the board times the probability of each amount being in the final case. The amount on average you can expect to make is basically the same no matter how you play so what's left is just an elaborate game of coin flipping - oh and watching some startlingly good-looking woman. But it is fun to watch the folks sweat the decisions and bring in their "advisors" to speculate on their luck.

- Mark

 

[BBQ]

Go Broncos. Er, oh I mean Rockies. Hey I will be in Denver July and August lets meet up and have beer and ride Bikes - maybe not in that order.

 

[protondecay123]

Way to go SOX!! :yahoo: :yahoo: :yahoo:

86 years of sports frustration is finally giving some return.

My condolences to Rockies fans. Great classy organization. Maybe next year

 

[Fred W]

The critical thing for all Red Sox fans (self included) to keep in mind is: You do not want to become the equivelent of all that we have hated all these years. A Yankees fan.

Sox did well. As did their opponents. Any one team can have a bad stretch. They were obviously both good enough to get through their respective divisions.

I enjoyed the variety of seeing play at Coors field. I hope the Red Sox and Rockies can rematch next year in WS '08!! :yahoo:

 

[FJR_pig]

I hope the Red Sox and Rockies can rematch next year in WS '08!! :yahoo:

Woof! That way, the Sox win again! LOL, kidding. The Rockies are a class organization. Helton is an iron man. Congrats to them as well for what they achieved.

 

[v65]

You do not want to become the equivelent of all that we have hated all these years.

Evil Empire! Evil Empire!

 

[Fred W]

You do not want to become the equivelent of all that we have hated all these years.

Evil Empire! Evil Empire!

No, you missed the second part of my statement. Although the Yankees were somewhat abominable, the far worse was the dreaded Yankee fans. :glare:

That's not you is it? :angry:

[edit] Shouldn't be. You're so far west in NY state you should be a pittsburg fan.