Yamaha Posts Half-Year Net Loss

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SockMonkey

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For those that peruse this board for hints of a 2010 Gen III FJR, the linked article below may help manage your expectations in this regard. It's my personal opinion that there most likely will not be any substantial updates to the platform if, that is, Yamaha even chooses to continue the FJR beyond this model year. In cutting annual motorcycle production from current manufacturing capacity of 500,000 bikes to 250,000, it stands to reason that Yamaha will focus its efforts on only its highest volume - and thus more profitable, bikes. Despite being 2nd behind BMW for sport-touring sales (according to various industry mags), it's not likely the FJR figures into the volume/profit equation that Yamaha needs right now.

Article: Yamaha Posts Half-Year Net Loss

 
I think SockMonkey posted the opening salvo based on an actual Yamaha produced statement. I'm sure this will become a hot topic full of debate, wild-ass speculation, and hopefully the occasional astute and reasoned observation. Not sure whether to get popcorn or a fire extinguisher, but I'm sure it will be an interesting thread regardless.

Play nice all. ;)

 
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The FJR is a piece of crap anyway. Why would they want to keep producing it?

Now I'm off to buy a BMW...

:p

 
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That could very well be true. Unless they have already put in a lot of R&D into an updated model the FJR could be dropped or yamaha could just chrun out another year of a Gen II bike. Bombardier went ahead with its new CamAm Spyder even though they knew the market was dismal only because they put so much R&D into it - to them it would be a complete waste to not put out the spyder. If Yamaha already sunk a lot of money for a new Gen III FJR I bet they would certainly release it and not drop they line entirely, if anything they just wouldn't produce as many.

Perhaps some other high-end models might be dropped like the Vmax? You never know. Since their marine division lost the most sales percentage-wise i'd expect that line to suffer the most, which sucks b/c yamaha makes terrific wave runners and outboards too.

Lets hope that "reducing fixed costs" doesn't lead to corner-cutting i.e. reduced quality!

 
I agree, what a piece of %#@$. I am off to buy a Harley. I am tired of riding a fast, comfortable, agile and easy to maintain motorcycle that looks good too. :blink:

 
Well, I guess you had to know something like this was going to happen with the economy in the crapper. Just hope we're not reduced to only sport bikes and harley clones.

GP

 
It will be interesting. I don't know if the S-T category is big enough to really support models from 4 manufacturers.

I wonder just how much the Connie14 has cut into Yamaha's piece of the pie.

 
...If Yamaha already sunk a lot of money for a new Gen III FJR I bet they would certainly release it and not drop they line entirely, if anything they just wouldn't produce as many. ...
If the motorcycle industry is anything like the automotive industry, my experience is that R&D costs are an operating cost and the results of such R&D are only as good as the projections of income they will generate. I certainly wouldn't bet anything on seeing a GenIII unless they are already tooled up to produce it. That being said, my experience is that there is a couple of year lag before a decision to discontinue a model and the end of production. If that decision has been made due to the economic situation, I'd still expect to see 2010 and maybe even 2011 runs before the production ends.

But then again... what do I know? Maybe the Japanese have a different way of dealing with these things!

 
A couple of weeks ago, I was talking to the local Yamaha dealer. He also carries Triumph and KTM. He was closing out all of the pirate stuff, told me he is going to redirect his inventory to Adventure riding and Touring. It was his opinion that segment had the largest growth possibilities.

Even with all of the Star products, he was willing to concede to HD in that catagory.

Hopefully he is correct and the FJR will flourish and maybe a new adventure bike from Yamaha.

 
...If Yamaha already sunk a lot of money for a new Gen III FJR I bet they would certainly release it and not drop they line entirely, if anything they just wouldn't produce as many. ...
If the motorcycle industry is anything like the automotive industry, my experience is that R&D costs are an operating cost and the results of such R&D are only as good as the projections of income they will generate. I certainly wouldn't bet anything on seeing a GenIII unless they are already tooled up to produce it. That being said, my experience is that there is a couple of year lag before a decision to discontinue a model and the end of production. If that decision has been made due to the economic situation, I'd still expect to see 2010 and maybe even 2011 runs before the production ends.

But then again... what do I know? Maybe the Japanese have a different way of dealing with these things!
The more I think about it, the better question may be what the dealer surveys are telling the Yamaha production planning folk right now (and the upcoming dealer meeting will be really telling...). After all, it's the dealers whom 1) are Yamaha's real customers (not us, then end user - or rider as it were), and 2) have suffered greatly in this economy. Conserving capital is the dealer's mantra as floor plan credit is exceptionally hard to come by. Tying up working capital on a big ticket, low-margin, low sales volume bike like the FJR wouldn't make a lot of sense. As I visit various dealers in the greater Portland, Oregon area, I'm seeing less big ticket bikes on the floor and more low- and mid-range bikes (with the exceptions of the HD, BMW and Ducati dealers of course). Talking with the folks at Kawi-Suzuki-Triumph-BMW dealer Portland Motorcycle 2 weeks ago, the take away quote was "... once we sell the Concours [14], we won't replace it. We'll order 3 or 4 KLX250's for practically the same money and they won't sit on the floor [for long]". Bottom line is that the dealers are going to buy what they believe they can sell and that their customers will buy in the face of continued economic strife.

 
[SIZE=18pt]For sale 2005 FJR. Best year FeeJ made![/SIZE]

Cool farkles.

Custom Retro Stripe.

Collectors item!

$19K FIRM!

 
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Bottom line is that the dealers are going to buy what they believe they can sell and that their customers will buy in the face of continued economic strife.
Unfortunatly, I believe you are correct in that statement. I know my local dealer only has 1 FJR that's been sitting in the showroom for awhile now. Most of his stock is dirt, midrange SS and HD clones. I can see the smaller bikes selling fast again soon as the price of fuel rises yet again.

I wouldn't worry about the availability of parts for the FJR, even if they should stop production, there's a ton of parts available already.

 
First, realize that about 95% of press releases are about 95% crap. I've learned this while day-trading and working for publicly-traded companies.

I have an issue with the plan to cut production. If Yamaha cuts production then the cost of each motorcycle will increase since it will carry more of the fixed & direct costs as compared to more produced units. This may indicate that showroom price of our beloved FJR will go up in the future.

The statement with reducing fixed costs is a bit misleading because there is no indication if that includes capital, overhead, non-production payroll, non-production indirect costs, etc. My guess is the only people who knows what that means are the people at the mgmt level.

Also, we have no clue on how much of the 2009 1st & 2nd qtr loss includes non-cash items such as depreciation, amortization, inventory write downs, real estate write downs, etc. Of course there is to be expected a lower net profit than prior years due to the economy... but to have a clear view we would have to know the amt of non-cash items in that loss. We also are not given a cash-flow statement which is a great tool to measure the true profitability of the company.

Yamaha Motor Corp may be electing to take write downs on inventory and capital assets for tax purposes before those items are addressed by Congress and possibly have the deduction eliminated. This is a very common practice in the business world after a political shift in Washington.

About 9 years ago Toyota purchased a small stake in Yamaha. If there is big need for Yamaha to address production costs & efficiency then more than likely we will see Toyota share production technology with Yamaha.

Yamaha is number 2 in world-wide sales of motorcycles behind Honda. The bad side of this is probably there is a lot of useless overhead that can be cut. The good side of this is Yamaha has the production capacity and delivery system to sale motorcycles in every major market in the world, not just in the US and Europe. Right now China is Buick's largest & fastest-growing sales region in the world. Buick has focused most of it's sales in the future in China than the US. I expect Yamaha to do the same - to target it's fastest-growing sales base and proceed from there.

I doubt that Yamaha will stop production of the FJR. To do so would add additional losses in the next 3-5 years to the income statement, which according to the press release, is something Yamaha is aiming to avoid. But there is a strong possibility the FJR may not be given a new model for a few years and the base price may increase.

(Edit)

Publicly-traded companies can no longer expense R&D over several years. This may preclude Yammie from putting tons of money into new models if the company is attempting to strengthen the bottom line. A few months ago Harley cut jobs. My business sense tells me that the overall motor industry is being hit hard with slowing sales whether it be a car, motorcycle, boat, atv, etc. If you want to add a new motorized vehicle to your garage then now is the time.

 
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Good points CRMH Eagle!

Unless they have well over half the inventory unsold, why cut back. That would also reduce revenue in the long run. If sales are down 27% I could see a cut around 25%. They would have to bet on the come if they think the economy will recover and sales will improve or get worse. But to say sales are down 25% and cut production by 50% seems to me they think the economy will be far worse, or they have waaaay too much inventory out there.

We need more data.

 
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