The big question is "When do you fill up your barrels?". Hard enough as it is to believe, I think now may be too early.
Cav's "$1.59" report is the lowest I've heard. Wow. That fuel is being sold on the December spot price. Crude oil dropped another 1.4% yesterday. We very well might hit $50.00 next week. Using some simple extrapolation, some markets could definitely see $1.25 a gallon in February, or even lower.
The refineries will make cheaper winter blend for another 60 days or so, then start switching to the more expensvie summer blend. All other things being equal (which may or may not be the case), that will bump up the price 10-15 cents.
Bloomberg is now saying don't expect the bottom to hit before June 2015. Middle eastern countries are stock piling oil at an alarming rate.
Many of my sources in the small to medium sized oil service companies tell me that the big boys say the real break even point for traditional land and offshore drilling is now at about $40.00 a barrel, a little higher for drilling in shale (USA Today article for today, Jan 3, says $42.00 is the break even for USA shale). We are definitely feeling it already here - the "now hiring" signs on our major industrial highway are all gone. Our own State revenue estimating committee is re-vamping the 2nd half of this year (our fiscal year ends June 30) to accomodate for our great reduction in oil royalties revenue.
Because oil is traded world wide with the American dollar, the ripling effects of this will be far reaching.