Missing 777

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Bugnatr

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It's all about technology. If we can make a fighter jet and a bomber that is invisible to radar (stealth), then why can't a passenger jet disappear from radar? The questions are: where are they, who is responsible, and why a plane full of civilians?

 
Why speculate. Was the radar beacon in the plane turned off (as it can be, manually)? Did it go down in the ocean? It may be months before they find it, and years before they know the real cause assuming it crashed........ we only know what the media is told........

 
PhilJet09 should be able to add some good info here.

The pilots have a flight plan filed, during the pre-flight activities one of the things done is to program the auto-pilot, setup the radio frequencies for the flight plan as well as the VOR frequencies for the land based parts of the flight. The aircraft is monitored by Primary Radar which is a simple blit on the Air Traffic Control radar screen, the farther off shore the higher the plane has to be to show on the radar screen. The plane is also monitored by a Secondary means using a transponder. When the plane is pinged it responds with flight information that can include some aircraft system information. Once out of Primary range the crew and plane still can communicate via many ways, including radios, ACARS reports, CPDLC, satellite phones, ADS-B, etc., some are automatic and some are manual.

All planes of this type have locked doors to the cockpit that can only be opened from the inside under normal situations. If anyone tries to break in the flight crew has time to issue an emergency code. The doors can be opened from the outside by entering an emergency code but again, the crew has time to issue an emergency code. The pilots would have time to set the transponder for code 7500 which is 'unlawful interference'.

All systems on the aircraft have protection and backup so spilling a cup of coffee into the flight controls can't shut down the airplane or a shorting radio can't take out the electrical system.

For the plane to be missing and quite possibly extremely off the flight plan a bunch of things need to happen. The auto-pilot has to be turned off and the plane manually piloted. These days there are GPS systems to back up the traditional navigation systems so there shouldn't be any confusion as to where the plane is and where it is headed. The communications and transponder has to be turned off or the system buss that powers it has to be turned off. The plane needs to descend below Primary radar of wait until out of Primary radar range. There has to be a deliberate non use of satellite phones, either voluntary or forced. If the plane is turning back across land it would show on Primary radar if someone was looking, but since it was flying off of any filed flight plan it could be missed. For the plane to be missing and on the flight plan there almost has to have been a quick emergency or virtually instant destruction. In the case of the French plane that went MIA a few years ago it was the flight crew that made several mistakes that led to the plane crashing in bad weather. There has been a recent push for more flight simulator training to prevent the errors that these pilots made.

There almost has to be someone that knows the 777 cockpit to achieve all the things that have occurred to hide the plane. To what end? Who knows, maybe it was a spectacular suicide along with a captive audience. Surprisingly there hasn't been any claim of terror, even if they had nothing to do with it. There was no extortion attempt. Time to look at flight insurance policies and see who took out the $10 million policy 30 minutes before the flight? It should be impossible for a commercial plane like a 777 to have a 'Payne Stewart' incident where lack of oxygen causes all aboard to loose conciseness yet that pattern does fit a lot of what we see with this flight. But, there is that troubling lack of transponder response.

 
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Makes me think of the the series "The Event".
LOST....
What does your state of mind have to do with it?
mda.gif


 
To just disappear makes me think it blew up at 31,000 feet. Seems like there would be some wreckage floating over a large area.

 
PhilJet09 should be able to add some good info here.
The pilots have a flight plan filed, during the pre-flight activities one of the things done is to program the auto-pilot, setup the radio frequencies for the flight plan as well as the VOR frequencies for the land based parts of the flight. The aircraft is monitored by Primary Radar which is a simple blit on the Air Traffic Control radar screen, the farther off shore the higher the plane has to be to show on the radar screen. The plane is also monitored by a Secondary means using a transponder. When the plane is pinged it responds with flight information that can include some aircraft system information. Once out of Primary range the crew and plane still can communicate via many ways, including radios, ACARS reports, CPDLC, satellite phones, ADS-B, etc., some are automatic and some are manual.

All planes of this type have locked doors to the cockpit that can only be opened from the inside under normal situations. If anyone tries to break in the flight crew has time to issue an emergency code. The doors can be opened from the outside by entering an emergency code but again, the crew has time to issue an emergency code. The pilots would have time to set the transponder for code 7500 which is 'unlawful interference'.

All systems on the aircraft have protection and backup so spilling a cup of coffee into the flight controls can't shut down the airplane or a shorting radio can't take out the electrical system.

For the plane to be missing and quite possibly extremely off the flight plan a bunch of things need to happen. The auto-pilot has to be turned off and the plane manually piloted. These days there are GPS systems to back up the traditional navigation systems so there shouldn't be any confusion as to where the plane is and where it is headed. The communications and transponder has to be turned off or the system buss that powers it has to be turned off. The plane needs to descend below Primary radar of wait until out of Primary radar range. There has to be a deliberate non use of satellite phones, either voluntary or forced. If the plane is turning back across land it would show on Primary radar if someone was looking, but since it was flying off of any filed flight plan it could be missed. For the plane to be missing and on the flight plan there almost has to have been a quick emergency or virtually instant destruction. In the case of the French plane that went MIA a few years ago it was the flight crew that made several mistakes that led to the plane crashing in bad weather. There has been a recent push for more flight simulator training to prevent the errors that these pilots made.

There almost has to be someone that knows the 777 cockpit to achieve all the things that have occurred to hide the plane. To what end? Who knows, maybe it was a spectacular suicide along with a captive audience. Surprisingly there hasn't been any claim of terror, even if they had nothing to do with it. There was no extortion attempt. Time to look at flight insurance policies and see who took out the $10 million policy 30 minutes before the flight? It should be impossible for a commercial plane like a 777 to have a 'Payne Stewart' incident where lack of oxygen causes all aboard to loose conciseness yet that pattern does fit a lot of what we see with this flight. But, there is that troubling lack of transponder response.

Great insight Alan thanks for the input.

It s a baffling situation.

 
ADS-B is likely off the table in this case. No coverage in the last known location area, and ADS-B out in most of the world (and always in the Flight Levels) is done via transponder using 1090 ES. ADS-B is not yet mandatory equipment in the US (not sure about other parts of the world), though the equipment is pretty commonly installed in the high-flier iron, so it is likely to have been equipped.

Apparently the transponders were off for whatever reason. Typically Primary Radar isn't used by civilian facilities outside of terminal airspace. Many facilities actually suppress primary targets, since they pick up all sorts of irrelevant signals.

Sat phones and certain other communication technologies would work in this area, but not likely regular cell phones.

 
Some family members claim that they were calling cell phones that were on the plane and the phones continued to ring, hours after the plane disappeared. Cell phones that I am aware of do not respond with a ring if they are turned off or out of cellular service areas, or under water.

 
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Wow...You guys are some conspiracy theorists. I was reading about this yesterday and there was some metion of some type of trouble on the plane. Probably mechanical, but I don't remember. It said the plane may have been in the middle of a U-turn to return back to the airport but was off radar, so they're unsure exactly where it was. Article said it is not hard for a plane to lose radar signal, depending on where it is located. They also said, only a couple of planes have "never" been found. Commercial passenger jets seem to always be located. They said they'd find this one. It is one small plane and it is a big-ass ocean. Sooner or later, it will pop up.

Of course, intelligence agencies are looking into a couple of passengers that supposedly boarded with stolen passports. May be significant, may not be.

 
Wow...You guys are some conspiracy theorists...the plane may have been in the middle of a U-turn to return back to the airport...Of course, intelligence agencies are looking into a couple of passengers that supposedly boarded with stolen passports. May be significant, may not be.
Ya, the pilot probably remembered that he forgot to turn off his iron and went back home but forgot to tell anyone. The airport most likely didn't see the plane return 'cause there are lots of 'em and they all look alike. Or, some cute girls were lap-dancing with the copilot and accidentally hit the auto destruct button. :)

The passengers with stolen passports were a couple of Iranians that were defecting to other countries, using Thailand as a portal. After paying off a number of people to get and use a fake ID to defect they usually don't bomb the plane they are defecting on. ;)

 
I really can't (won't) offer much more than has already been said. I have a few theories that I'm keeping to myself out of respect and the fact that this is a public forum, which is what most professionals in my field do, save the "experts" you see in the media.

Keep in mind that this is a difficult part of the world due to cultural, political and technological factors. Air France took a long time to find and that's with ACARS helping to pinpoint the location by alerting the company of some serious in flight problems. I'm as anxious to find out what happened as anybody else, but this may take a long, long time.

 
I really can't (won't) offer much more than has already been said. I have a few theories that I'm keeping to myself out of respect and the fact that this is a public forum, which is what most professionals in my field do, save the "experts" you see in the media. Keep in mind that this is a difficult part of the world due to cultural, political and technological factors. Air France took a long time to find and that's with ACARS helping to pinpoint the location by alerting the company of some serious in flight problems. I'm as anxious to find out what happened as anybody else, but this may take a long, long time.
Thanks Phil. I'm not in the industry so it is easier to arm chair quarterback and I knew if I lobbed this subject out there we would get various ideas, no one knows yet. I assumed our eyes in the sky watched everything from space and perhaps they do but won't tell us.

I hope Wheatie is wrong.

 
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