It may be pointless, but it's interesting (to me) to see the various points of view.
FWIW, from a dealers perspective...
The biggest challenge the industry faces as we speak is quite simply getting people financed. 10 years ago we were working on about a 5:1 ratio of applicants to approved loans, 5 years ago it was about 10:1, right now as we speak the dealership I'm at is at 22/23:1. We get a tremendous amount of floor traffic, but not many people are in a position to buy.
Up until 2005 we (the industry) was on a rocket ship ride as far as sales go. About all you had to do to make money was show up and turn on the lights, not so anymore. for the majority of that time cruisers and ATV's fed us. Period. The sales numbers for those two categories dwarfed everything other category and many of them combined. Cruiser sales are still fairly brisk by todays standards, but ATV sales have tanked horribly. Again, financing and IMHO the impact of the Korean, Taiwanese, etc imports that the MIC isn't even tracking sales of. Another sales killer in the utility ATV market is the SXS. Many customers who might have otherwise bought a large displacement goon buggy are now gravitating toward the SXS, most of the people that are interested in those units aren't struggling for credit either. However, the sales of SXS have not made up for the loss in sales in the utility ATV segment. Not even close.
The general scuttlebutt is that no models are in jeopardy that weren't already and those are only that way because they are being phased out with something new and better. I.E. Yamaha would love to drop the the V-Star 1100 and has introduced two models (the 1300 and 950) that are supposed to be replacements, but sales of those units have been a little flat for several reasons. What is widely known is that there will be less units built over the next 2 years, maybe three, which translates into less units on the floor at the dealer level, which ultimately could also mean less profits for dealers.
I said in another post that I believe after the first of the year we will see fewer and fewer dealerships in business. I still do. In fact, I'd say the number will be about 20% less. Expect smaller market and lower volume stores to go first. After this adjustment happens combined with the overall lower number of units produced I think things will start to even out.
But the face of the average motorcycle dealership is going to change in the next 5 years or so anyway as they are forced to become more like the modern automotive dealership is today as opposed to the old school mom and pop stores of earlier times.
Brice