Is a wreck inevitable?

[keithaba]

I prefer to have a damn good time, even when I crash!

There, modified to fit our forum better!

 

[FJR_pig]

I prefer to have a damn good time, even when I crash!

There, modified to fit our forum better!

You might add on a motorcycle to the end of that. If I remember correctly and can recount some stories passed on this board, a few "crashed" while walking in Park City.

 

[brazos parker]

Considering the high degree of probability of having some kind of an accident, how much does already having had one (or more) reduce one's chances?

I tend to think that all other factors (riding style, where one rides, etc) being equal, the odds of a second accident are the same as the first accident since they would be independent events.

0.02

 

[Harald]

My wife has been hit 3 times in the past 3 years. In each case she was completely stopped in traffic and someone plowed into her from behind. I was in the car as a passenger in 2 of those cases. There's simply going to be those unavoidable instances. I did see the car coming too quickly to stop in one of those wrecks. I suppose I could have quickly shot to the side on my bike in that same case and avoided being hit, but that would require always watching you back. I often watch my back, but not always. It only takes not paying attention once to get hit. And you may not be able to get out of the way in time.

All that said, I've been pretty lucky on bikes over the years. Most motorcycle accidents are due to riding under in the influence and rider inexperience. I've been riding for a loooong time and don't ride impaired, so I'll take my chances on the rare unavoidable accident. When it's time to go, it's time to go.....

 

[double_entendre]

What do you guys think? Is it just a matter of time before each of us gets our clock cleaned?
Inquiring minds want to know.

I don't think that it's inevitable, but I don't think it's entirely preventable either. I do all that I can reasonably do to avoid a wreck (MSF training, constant reading, practice on a closed course, etc) and make every effort to mitigate risk of damage to my body (armored gear, gloves, helmet, boots, etc) but none of that can guarantee that some blue-hair won't sneak up and plow me.

I try to have the mindset that it's always probable...and pay attention accordingly.

.02

Seems to me that every time we go out we roll the dice. If you're paying attention and they're paying attention, then the odds are really good that you'll be fine. If only one of those holds true, then the odds ain't so good. If neither is true, then it's looking pretty bad (e.g., not "if," but "when").

That said, we're all human and there's no way that you're going to always be looking the right direction at the right time and be able to react to changing conditions. It's just not possible. If you're looking to your right, that Expedition to your left is just about to yank the wheel right 'cause he missed his exit.

IMHO it's not inevitable per se, but the odds are that you're going to go down. Best you can hope for is to go down stupid and easy in the parking lot rather than some drunk come around the curve on the wrong side of the road.

Shit happens. Dogs and kids run out from between parked cars and you can't always do 15mph to make sure you're able to stop in that case--but you can watch for them. People don't look when they change lanes. People drink & drive. Road surfaces aren't what they always appear to be. Etcetera ad infinitum.

FWIW, I don't think I've ever owned a bike that hasn't at some point or other suffered from a failure to adhere to the "rubber side down" rule and I've got the injuries to show for it. I know I'm much more aware of my mortality now (the MRI this morning didn't help there--ow), though I still couldn't be considered a conservative driver.

Rancho

 

[OrangevaleFJR]

I used to think not before I crashed. Now, I think otherwise for some strange reason...

Tim getting in an accident reduced the chances of me getting in another one.

 

[fjrchik]

I choose to believe it WILL happen to me, its just a matter of time. It doesn't matter what gear I wear or don't wear, something will happen to me eventually. I'm more than a weekend rider so the odds are against. I'm coming up on the end of my first full year of commuting and am surprised something hasn't happened to me yet. I've had several very scary close calls but i stayed upright.

While good gear is important, so is getting your ducks in a row. Insurance, wills, enough medical coverage are just as important. Make sure your loved ones will be ok if some idiot takes you out. If you can't do that, you shouldn't be riding.

 

[Fred W]

My wife has been hit 3 times in the past 3 years. In each case she was completely stopped in traffic and someone plowed into her from behind. I was in the car as a passenger in 2 of those cases. There's simply going to be those unavoidable instances.

Playing devils advocate here, and I know I will probably take some flaming for this whole line of thought, :diablo: but this example works pretty well since your crashes are neither motorcycle related nor would I be questioning your or her riding / driving ability.

You say that those accidents were unavoidable. But they actually were avoidable if she had not been there to begin with. If she had chosen not to be driving in an area of high traffic, or during a time of day with heavy traffic congestion, etc. I know we all tend to think that we "can't change" these things about our lives, but in reality we can. They are all choices we have made. Compromises about what we have to do to live the way we want to live.

We don't have to commute to work. It's just the easy way, in the sense that it's the way we've always done things. We could find some kind of employment within walking distance or where we work out of our homes (telecommuter). We don't have to live in a congested city or suburb, or worse commute from one to the other. These are choices we have made.

So, with that said ( strictly hypothetically) if one moved to a more rural area, telecommuted or worked where they didn't have to commute in a vehicle, and only rode motorcycles for pleasure, don't you suppose that the chances of getting in a crash would be significantly reduced during the recreational riding they did?

Man, I sure hope so...

 

[Bob Hughes]

Since I dumped one in 1976 I say YES it is inevitable. Just ask yourself if you have ever had an auto accident, even a fender bender, most of us have or will have in our life times. So with odds that high I vote YES, and I gear up for it.

Wear the best riding gear that you can afford... all the time.

 

[Nick2]

Annual percentage wise, I believe I read bike accidents are in the increase. Not surprising considering more and more people having more expendable income equating to more people buying bikes which continuously become more powerful, and the technology of speed out-pacing rider skill levels. Plus of course the ever increasing stat... more and more vehicles per square mile.

I saw the stats on this one. It's sport bikes that have the most and the most serious wrecks (in contrast to you know who).

I bet they didn't adust the stats for age and/or stupidity.

 

[El Gordo]

Two thoughts to add:
Considering the high degree of probability of having some kind of an accident, how much does already having had one (or more) reduce one's chances?

One could argue that your odds will now be reduced because you've already "paid your dues" so to speak. But another might say you were obviously taking certain risks that led to the circumstance of the collision. Or maybe you'll have modified your actions after falling and no longer take those same risks. Things that make yo go, Hmmm...

Also, it is my thought (I have no proof at all) that where you ride (and when) has a tremendous influence on your odds.

Being as that crash (1st in 34 years) was totally my own fault, I like to think that I won't crash again for the same reasons.

(As well having a graphic demonstration of not being immortal changes one's perspective on taking risk.)

 

[rangerray]

Somebody said about 1/2 of motorcycle crashes involve the motorcycle leaving the roadway. If that's true, then you can cut your chances in 1/2 by not driving off of the roadway. It's been said that a high percentage of bike crashes involve alcohol. There you go...don't drink and lower chances a little bit more. That leaves the types of accidents where it was the other vehicle that was the cause or a deer jumps in front of you or a meteorite destroys your direct path. Can you say that none of those things will ever happen? I can't. So, my answer is not if it will happen, but when.

So far, not counting little mishaps on dirtbikes due to my "playing around," I have never crashed a bike. I've never crashed a car either. I believe that someday I WILL crash my bike and someday I'll crash a car too, but I'm hoping that it doesn't happen any time soon and that I can keep postponing it by being alert and not doing the things that inch that day closer and closer. Until then, like was said earlier, keep the insurance policy active and love all you love like it could be taken away in the next hour.

In other words, the answer is yes.

 

[GunMD]

I still can't believe how many of you are convinced that it's inevitable. Understanding that the meaning of inevitable is that it will absolutely happen no matter what, I find it difficult to buy into. I am willing to bet that there are life-long riders out there somewhere that have NEVER wrecked. If there is even one person who rode their entire life without crashing then it shoots a big flaming hole in the "it's inevitable" theory.

 

[twowheelnut]

I still can't believe how many of you are convinced that it's inevitable. Understanding that the meaning of inevitable is that it will absolutely happen no matter what, I find it difficult to buy into. I am willing to bet that there are life-long riders out there somewhere that have NEVER wrecked. If there is even one person who rode their entire life without crashing then it shoots a big flaming hole in the "it's inevitable" theory.

Correct. However, in my case, it is now impossible to be inevitable as it has already happened. As for shooting flaming holes, I should think that including your personal habits in a discussion such as this might have been better left unwritten.

 

[Ignacio]

Stinky bait! Stinky bait!

It's the age old debate of destiny/fate/predetermination and free will and very pointless for purposes of an FJR forum.

One of these days I'm going to figure out a method to display who particpates most per post in NEPRT. <_<

 

[Malve]

Some people who have already crashed are less likely to in the future based on their "crash education" and increased respect for riding. Some are more likely to crash because they are "proven" crashers who on a previous occasion lacked the skill set to avoid the accident (regardless of the circumstances...don't argue). Some are equaly likely and the difference between the three are completely subjective and near impossible to figure.

The odds of crashing ten times in the future are very low...however if you crash nine times, you are no less likely to crash again based on your past. Just like the coin that is unlikely to land heads 10 times in a row yet after 9 heads in a row, still has a 50/50 chance on the next toss.

People with diseases with very high mortatlity rates sometimes live and people sometimes die from breast surgery and the like. Statistics are funny that way but one thing is for certain... 90% of everything is half mental. All kidding aside, on top of all of the safe riding choices that you can make, I think that people like dcarver have recently demonstrated that if you are commited to not crashing even when faced with obstacles (literally) that would send most down you decrease the odds considerably. How many crashes (especially single rider ones) do you think could have been avoided if the rider simply commited themselves to "riding the bike".... I believe many.

Anyway, I'm sure there are no forum members here that don't respect the risk factor but I think that the only way you could say that a crash is inevitable is if you rode for an infinite amount of time because in a limited window of time anything is possible.

 

[twowheelnut]

Free Willy? What the hell has that to do with the topic?

[SIZE=8pt]Or FJR's for that matter?[/SIZE]

 

[Silver Penguin]

In view of all the information posted in this thread, I think I'm going to start pushing my FJR around instead of riding it. Statistically, I'm very much less likely to get into a wreck that way. Speed and mileage will be very strictly limited. MPG will be awesome. Not only that but I will greatly enhance my physical fitness by hefting a bike that size around.

Remember the MSF's ladder of risk? If you never ever take the bike out the garage you'll be a lot safer that riding to 100% of your ability 100% of the time. Where do YOU want to put YOUR risk level?

Jill

 

[bikerskier]

With over 40 years of riding both street and dirt, and who the hell know how many miles, I have had so many dirt crashes that I think I''m good to go on the street. My quota is pretty full up.

 

[Fred W]

Some people who have already crashed are less likely to in the future based on their "crash education" and increased respect for riding. Some are more likely to crash because they are "proven" crashers who on a previous occasion lacked the skill set to avoid the accident (regardless of the circumstances...don't argue). Some are equaly likely and the difference between the three are completely subjective and near impossible to figure.The odds of crashing ten times in the future are very low...however if you crash nine times, you are no less likely to crash again based on your past. Just like the coin that is unlikely to land heads 10 times in a row yet after 9 heads in a row, still has a 50/50 chance on the next toss.

People with diseases with very high mortatlity rates sometimes live and people sometimes die from breast surgery and the like. Statistics are funny that way but one thing ids for certain... 90% of everything is half mental. All kidding aside, on top of all of the safe riding choices that you can make, I think that people like dcarver have recently demonstrated that if you are commited to not crashing even when faced with obstacles (literally) that would send most down you decrease the odds considerably. How many crashes (especially single rider ones) do you think could have been avoided if the rider simply commited themselves to "riding the bike".... I believe many.

Anyway, I'm sure there are no forum members here that don't respect the risk factor but I think that the only way you could say that a crash is inevitable is if you rode for an infinite amount of time because in a limited window of time anything is possible.

Malve has it right. "My boy is wicked smaht!"