Is a wreck inevitable?

[TriggerT]

Damn, anyone for PIE?

And HELL YES, it is finally Friday!!

 

[dhalen32]

Nick:

I believe the answer to your question is yes. It is up to us to minimize the negative effects with lots of training and practice as well as wearing the best protective gear possible.

Dave

 

[Fred W]

Nick:I believe the answer to your question is yes. It is up to us to minimize the negative effects with lots of training and practice as well as wearing the best protective gear possible.

Dave

[facetious]

But why bother if it's all up to fate as Knifemaker asserts?

[/facetious]

PS - I'm with you...

 

[keithaba]

I dont buy this either Keith,

the Fact is that the profile of a biker "type" includes factors that increase AND decrease the probability distribution. EG you say style riders are safer, but they tend to ride more in town where left hand tirning cagers are more likely and they represent something like 2/3's of all bike crashes. They are more likely to ride in rallies which are typically traps for crashes.

-2c

You'd have to argue with the numbers on that one. I don't have em, so it's a moot point. For instance, if a city has 1,000,000 cruiser riders, and 1,000 sports bike riders, your argument stand very strongly. In a city like Florida, the sports rider's crash rate may be closer to equal, shitty cage drivers, not a lot of twisties. In a place like N. Georgia, I'd be willing to bet there are a lot more sports riders to blow a turn than cruiser riders, just becuase of the nature of the way they ride the twisties. Again, we don't have the numbers, so it's all speculation at this point.

 

[Joe2Lmaker]

I'm thinking rest may not be enough brother.

Ouch.

 

[Nick2]

So, with that said ( strictly hypothetically) if one moved to a more rural area, telecommuted or worked where they didn't have to commute in a vehicle, and only rode motorcycles for pleasure, don't you suppose that the chances of getting in a crash would be significantly reduced during the recreational riding they did?
Man, I sure hope so...

Keeping hoping. Amount of riding hours is not a factor. (other than learning to ride and become goood at it)

Each time you go for a ride your odds are the same. If you only ride one short time a week your odds of being involved in an accident are the same as mine if I ride everyday.

A person that never plays he lottery has the same chance to win the jackpot as the guy that plays all the time.

I'm pretty sure that you're a bit off here. While the probability that a wreck will occur is the same each time we go out (an event), the probability that we will have a wreck over the course of thousands of events is greater than that of a single event. IOW's: a person who travels on a motorcycle a lot has a greater chance of having a wreck over the course of his riding lifetime than someone who seldom travels, but, on a given ride together, the two riders have precisely the same chance of having a wreck on that ride.

I'm still gonna ride though!

Later.

 

[Geezer]

I was trying to stay out of this, but I can't resist.....

Is a wreck inevitable? Nope!

Can it happen to any one at almost any time? Sure.

There are so many variables that I doubt any study could determine your odds.

And I do like pie. Apple, cherry, strawberry rhubarb, mmmmmm, now I'm getting hungry.

 

[Nick2]

One of the reasons I asked the question is that I've started back riding in my old age. I'm much more "careful" than when I rode as a young man and therefore less likely to crash (by my own hand that is); however, I know that if I have a crash now I'm going to heal a lot more slowly and hurt a great deal more than I did when I was 20. I also asked 'cause it seemed like there were several posts of folks getting nailed and it gave me pause. Don't get me wrong, I'm riding and loving it, but I hate the idea that some blue hair might kill me (a thought that never entered my mind when I was 20). I even look in my mirrors at stop lights to be sure the car behind me is stopping. Unfortunately my parents drove well past their ability and I have visions of them on the road (luckily they never hit anyone), but those folks are out there.

I wonder: do you guys stereotype while riding? I think I do. After all I get nervous when I see the girl with the cell phone or the guy with his arm hanging out of a truck with too much stuff or the distracted Mom speeding in her minivan or the teens rocking to the radio. Wait, come to think of it - - I don’t stereotype - - I just hate ‘em all!

Later

 

[JimLor]

Only death is inevitable, all else is awake to influence.

 

[Scab]

All this talk of mortality. Me thinks you guys think too much.

Part of my thought process associated with motorcycling is "selective reasoning." Get your heads right and just ride. There has to be some part of your brain that can take over and dictate thoughts like "not me, not today." Otherwise, ya'll just need to stay home and wait for the paramedics to find your dead ass on the toilet.

Inevitable my ass.

Death, you're gonna have to sneak up on me, cause I ain't looking for you. Oh, and move fast, cause I ain't waiting either.

 

[RiderCoach Lar]

Is a wreck inevitable? Absolutely not. The only things that are inevitable are death (not necessarily by motorcycle) and taxes...period.....end of story. I'm incredibly amused and profoundly disappointed at the number of forum members (and others) who believe it is. Perhaps it's their ignorance in identifying, accepting and managing the inherent risks when they ride. Or maybe it's a lack of understanding or acceptance of the consequences of riding irresponsibly. I wonder how many of those people also think their riding skills are the best they can be and cannot be improved.

I guess that's one of the reasons I'm so motivated to teach, despite it taking away from my riding time. When it come's to riding, ignorance (and vanity) can hurt you or get you killed. Is it "inevitable", NO. Just very likely. I happen to enjoy continually doing what I can to reduce that likelihood and always encourage others to do the same.

This is not a "pointless thread". I think it's an EXCELLENT thread that will hopfully encourage some members to honestly re-evaluate not only their riding skills, but more important, their attitudes towards riding.

Thanks Nick2, and welcome back to the ride!

 

[cougar8000]

A probability, not a certainty??
I'm good to go...I paid my dues & joined the crash club Sept 1st, 2006. :blink:

No shit. I joined this club as well on that same day. :assassin: Broke my left ankle and tibia in 3 places :dribble: now have 3 screws that hold it together. Did not see 2x2 plastic plate mid turn at, are you ready for it?, at 15 mph. Front washed away faster then I could say mommy. It is border line embarrassing. Got up rode my self home and then realize that something might be broken.

We are not counting track days, right? Sep 1st, 06 was my first and lets hope the last crash on the street. The minute you swing your leg over you are taking a chance. It is up to you to minimize it. You can't remove danger and possibility of getting hurt. but with constant training and self improvement you will minimize it to a point that it might never catch up to you.

 

[Silver Penguin]

In a place like N. Georgia, I'd be willing to bet there are a lot more sports riders to blow a turn than cruiser riders, just becuase of the nature of the way they ride the twisties. Again, we don't have the numbers, so it's all speculation at this point.

Your own point is well illustrated, in that it's all speculation. Are the sport riders more likely to blow a turn than the cruiser riders? Or are the cruiser riders who rarely seek out twisties more likely to blow the turn, because they don't practice cornering skills?

I think we all agree that being involved in an accident while riding a motorcycle is more likely than while driving a car, and will probably be more painful. Some risks can be managed, such as choice of protective gear, amount of training and experience, level of concentration, choice of motorcycle. External risks require a strategy on the rider's behalf. One must be constantly alert and ready for conditions to change, and be able to react quickly and appropriately.

Stereo-typing is not necessarily a bad thing for a rider. There are certain drivers that I will give more space to than others. If I'm wrong, so what? I gave ME more space. (And they're ALL out to get me anyway).

There is a possibility that a blue-haired, cell phone wielding DUI will get me one day. I might also get struck by lighting, fall down the stairs at work, catch Ebola or Bird Flu. My choice is not to dwell on those thoughts, but instead focus on what I can do to preserve my own safety while enjoying riding a motorcycle.

Jill

 

[cougar8000]

My wife has been hit 3 times in the past 3 years. In each case she was completely stopped in traffic and someone plowed into her from behind. I was in the car as a passenger in 2 of those cases. There's simply going to be those unavoidable instances. I did see the car coming too quickly to stop in one of those wrecks. I suppose I could have quickly shot to the side on my bike in that same case and avoided being hit, but that would require always watching you back. I often watch my back, but not always. It only takes not paying attention once to get hit. And you may not be able to get out of the way in time.
All that said, I've been pretty lucky on bikes over the years. Most motorcycle accidents are due to riding under in the influence and rider inexperience. I've been riding for a loooong time and don't ride impaired, so I'll take my chances on the rare unavoidable accident. When it's time to go, it's time to go.....

Harald,

Exactly for this reason I always keep my bike in gear and check my rear at least to point of a few cars stopping behind me. Those rear end collisions are almost 99% avoidable if you are paying attention. For me I make sure that I never stop too close to the vehicle in front of me as to not been able to move to its side. And in the case if I really have no way out trust me when I say that I am more then ready to dump the bike and run. I have insurance on it and have no problem using it.

maybe the main reason I think this way is because I was rear ended in the car at the stop light when I was a teenager that send me across the intersection. Now, many moons later I refuse for that to happen to me again and have avoided getting hit on more then one occasion after that.

As was stated before, you have to have a will and a mind set to avoid getting into a crash first of all. And let's not forget that you have to be humble. I see lots of guys give in to a pure pressure of going faster and do stupid thing.

 

[Fred W]

I think we all agree that being involved in an accident while riding a motorcycle is more likely than while driving a car,

I'm not so sure about that. Do the numbers bear that out? There are a lot of auto accidents every day.

and will probably be more painful.

This is where there is no doubt. A "fender bender" in a car is not even enough to get worked up about. The worst thing about it is the inconvenience of having to find a body shop and that your insurance will go up. The same little accident on 2 wheels will likely require a different sort of "body shop" (aka hospital).

 

[jwhite518]

There are just so many variables that it's impossible to give a single answer. How old are you, how long have you been riding, what kind of riding do you do, how well do you maintain your bike, where do you do most of your riding, etc etc. I think you can do a lot to reduce your chances, but there's still that bit of randomness and luck floating out there which you have no control over. Your question is unanswerable.

To address the old saying about two kinds of riders, I don't really believe it. It's possible to never crash. However I think it's actually helpful to crash when you're just starting out. That's how you find out some limits - your bike, your tires, your skills. And when you're young and bulletproof, what the hell! I think that a beginning rider who is mature adult is more likely to never crash. But never say never, there's always that BDC out there.

 

[charismaticmegafauna]

<snip>Those rear end collisions are almost 99% avoidable if you are paying attention.

Also, statistically, (from the Hurt Report): "Only 3.2% of motorcycle collisions come from the 6 o'clock position. 77.1% come from the 11 to 1 o'clock direction."

Silver Penguin: "There is a possibility that a blue-haired, cell phone wielding DUI will get me one day."

Another group I tend to especially take note of: those cars with previous damage showing -- the 'go ahead hit me, I could use the money' vehicles.

 

[cougar8000]

<snip>Those rear end collisions are almost 99% avoidable if you are paying attention.

Also, statistically, (from the Hurt Report): "Only 3.2% of motorcycle collisions come from the 6 o'clock position. 77.1% come from the 11 to 1 o'clock direction.

Good to know.

 

[EasyRider]

We have a very large roll in our own safety on the road a motorcyclist

Findings from the analysis of FARS data provide possible reasons and understanding behind

the two-vehicle motorcycle crashes and could aid in the design of crash prevention

programs. Findings in this section are divided into two categories: (1) findings from fiveyear

two-vehicle motorcycle crash trend data and (2) findings based on characteristics of

two-vehicle motorcycle crashes from the most recent year (2005):

(1) Findings based on two-vehicle motorcycle crash trend (2001-2005) data:

• Among fatal motorcycle crashes, nearly 55 percent of the crashes were multivehicle

crashes -- crashes involving a motorcycle and another vehicle (one or more).

• Of the motorcycle rider fatalities from multivehicle crashes about 90 percent were

from two-vehicle crashes, involving a motorcycle and another vehicle.

• An overwhelming majority (more than 85%) of the motorcycle riders killed in twovehicle

crashes were crashes involving passenger vehicles.

• Among the fatalities in two-vehicle crashes involving motorcycles and passenger

vehicles, 90 percent were operators of motorcycles, 8 percent were the passengers

of motorcycles and the remaining 2 percent were occupants of passenger vehicles.

(2) Findings based on characteristics of two-vehicle motorcycle crashes in which the motorcycle

operator was killed from 2005:

• In nearly three-fourths of these crashes, the role of the motorcycle was recorded as

the striking vehicle.

• Alcohol involvement among motorcycle operators killed was almost 2.5 times the

alcohol involvement of the passenger vehicle drivers involved in these crashes.

• Nearly one-fourth (24%) of the motorcycle operators killed in two-vehicle crashes

involving passenger vehicles, had an invalid license at the time of the crash compared

to 8 percent of the passenger vehicle drivers.

• Of the motorcycle operators who were killed in these crashes, 27 percent were

speeding at the time of the crash compared to 4 percent of the passenger vehicle

drivers.

• Of the front-to-side crashes involving motorcycles and passenger vehicles, where

one vehicle collided with the other at right angles, in 78 percent of the crashes the

role of the motorcycle was recorded as the striking vehicle.

• In 55 percent of the head-on two-vehicle crashes involving motorcycles and passenger

vehicles, the role of the motorcycle was recorded as the striking vehicle.

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis, 1200 New Jersey Avenue SE., Washington, DC 20590 3

• In 68 percent of the rear-end crashes involving motorcycles and passenger vehicles,

the role of the motorcycle was recorded as the striking vehicle.

• Of the motorcycle operators killed in two-vehicle crashes involving passenger vehicles,

49 percent had a previous driving violation recorded on their license at the

time of the crash.

• For the passenger vehicle drivers involved in two-vehicle motorcycle crashes, 35

percent of the driver-related factor was failure to yield right-of-way compared to

only 4 percent for motorcycle operators.

• There were 1.5 times as many two-vehicle motorcycle crashes involving passenger

vehicles in 2005 during weekends than during weekdays.

• More than 90 percent of the two-vehicle motorcycle crashes involving passenger

vehicles occurred on non-interstate roadways (in both urban and rural areas).

• Of the two-vehicle motorcycle crashes involving passenger vehicles, nearly 6 out of

10 occurred on urban roadways.

• More than 70 percent of these crashes occurred from May to October, which correlates

to the peak motorcycle riding season.

• In 13 percent of the two-vehicle motorcycle crashes involving passenger vehicles,

braking was reported as a crash avoidance maneuver by the motorcycle operators.

• Twenty-eight percent of the motorcycle operators killed in two-vehicle motorcycle

crashes involving passenger vehicles were in the 20 to 29 age group, followed by 21

percent for the 40 to 49 age group and 20 percent for the 30 to 39 age group.

• Of the motorcycle operators killed in these crashes, 97 percent were males and 3

percent were females.

In 1995:

Of the 869 motorcycle operators who died in single vehicle crashes, 43 percent were intoxicated (BAC of .10+).

Thirty percent of all fatally injured motorcyclists were intoxicated.

An additional 11.5 percent of all fatally injured motorcyclists had lower BAC levels than .10.

Sixty-one percent of motorcycle operators who died in single vehicle crashes on weekend nights were intoxicated.

Intoxication rates were highest for fatally injured operators between the ages of 30 and 39 years.

 

[Bustanut joker]

Damn it! I'd love to get in on this debate but... I laid a lit joint somewhere :dribble: and the probability's suggest a fire if I don't find it! Sorry gotta run.

Ya'll have fun

:jester: