Is a wreck inevitable?

[MrTwisty]

I haven't joined the crash club yet, so my opinion may change when it happens, but I am sure that you can increase or decrease your chances, depending on how, when and where you ride. Riding a motorcycle brings a whole new meaning to "defensive driving". Alertness and anticipation are also major factors.

I just noticed that I said "when" it happens. I guess I believe in the inevitability. I hope it's not too bad when it happens. Now I'm scared. Wait...I can rationalize it away. It could happen in a car too, couldn't it?

:blink:

 

[EasyRider]

Dose flopping over at a dead stop count as a wreck?

Thank god for Motovation Sliders.

 

[Knifemaker]

So, with that said ( strictly hypothetically) if one moved to a more rural area, telecommuted or worked where they didn't have to commute in a vehicle, and only rode motorcycles for pleasure, don't you suppose that the chances of getting in a crash would be significantly reduced during the recreational riding they did?
Man, I sure hope so...

Keeping hoping. Amount of riding hours is not a factor. (other than learning to ride and become goood at it)

Each time you go for a ride your odds are the same. If you only ride one short time a week your odds of being involved in an accident are the same as mine if I ride everyday.

A person that never plays he lottery has the same chance to win the jackpot as the guy that plays all the time. Each instance is in itself is how you define the chances, and although insurance companies have complex graphs and such that fore tells the "likelyhood" of each possible added aspect of one having an accident (experiance, location, type of vehicle, time of day, etc...) the fact is that anyone anytime and anywhere can get nailed by another motorist , loose controll, or what have you and be involved in an "accident".

I know many riders that have never been "involved" and quite a few that have..to various degrees. As Ignacio posted, it is just a matter of "fate" or "destiny" ..or as I put it, "Your number is up"

One still needs to accept that they do need to pay attetion out there and stay frosty..but we all have an equal chance of hitting that deer...or not ever hitting that deer... so no. nothing is inevitable.

(except your own mortality)

KM

 

[MrTwisty]

WOW! That's deep!

 

[Fred W]

So, with that said ( strictly hypothetically) if one moved to a more rural area, telecommuted or worked where they didn't have to commute in a vehicle, and only rode motorcycles for pleasure, don't you suppose that the chances of getting in a crash would be significantly reduced during the recreational riding they did?
Man, I sure hope so...

Keeping hoping. Amount of riding hours is not a factor. (other than learning to ride and become goood at it)

Each time you go for a ride your odds are the same. If you only ride one short time a week your odds of being involved in an accident are the same as mine if I ride everyday.

A person that never plays he lottery has the same chance to win the jackpot as the guy that plays all the time. Each instance is in itself is how you define the chances, and although insurance companies have complex graphs and such that fore tells the "likelyhood" of each possible added aspect of one having an accident (experiance, location, type of vehicle, time of day, etc...) the fact is that anyone anytime and anywhere can get nailed by another motorist , loose controll, or what have you and be involved in an "accident".

I know many riders that have never been "involved" and quite a few that have..to various degrees. As Ignacio posted, it is just a matter of "fate" or "destiny" ..or as I put it, "Your number is up"

One still needs to accept that they do need to pay attetion out there and stay frosty..but we all have an equal chance of hitting that deer...or not ever hitting that deer... so no. nothing is inevitable.

(except your own mortality)

KM

You missed my entire point. I wasn't saying that reducing the time on the bike would change your odds (though I think it will) I was saying that where you ride and under what traffic conditions you ride will.

 

[Knifemaker]

No Fred, I did not miss your point. You missed mine, It does not matter where you live , or how often your ass is out on the road (you did mention working at home and not commuting to work, so this does involve time on the road) , or how much traffic is out there, You still run the same odds of "something going wrong" as the guy fighting rush hour traffic everyday.

Now you would think that surronded by traffic everyday would increase the likely hood of an accident, and yes, there may be insurance figures to say it is more likely, but all it takes is one poor smuck pulling his bike out onto that rural road and gettin hit by the only car in town (driven by the town drunk) to totaly wipe the odds in the other direction.

And if that city commuter never has an accident, what does that mean?

It means although you can collect data and make charts showing all the stats with all the facts you can collect, there is always 'random fliers" that occour and make all the charts meaningless.

Chaos theory. Murphy's Law. Call it what you will, but it boils down to the fact that YOU can not control fate. You can lock yourself up in a house in the country and never go out....but you might just fall down the basement stairs and break your neck...and the guy in the city never has a motorcycle accident and lives to be 100.

KM

 

[TriggerT]

Yes, but what are the ODDS. Being safe is a odds game, you play the game as best you can, but sometimes you might still loose. Sometimes you are the windshield, sometimes your are the bug.

By the way KM, your new avatar is good, but not even close to your old one.

 

[Knifemaker]

I think the ODDS are , that if you ride a motorcycle, your chances are greater of being seriously hurt or killed , over driving a really big car.

The fun part is beating those odds. Good gear, good habits and good concentration go along way at meeting that goal.

I have had several "pucker moments" that if it were not for my skill or plain luck, I would not be here to write this. But , right now, I am here and hope that my experiance along with dumb luck continue to let me live on. I have learned to trust my instincts, and to some extent , rely on that dumb luck/skill to the point that I still love to ride and don't give into "fear" and stop riding.

The woman with the sword is on vacation and will return...

KM

 

[Scab]

Okay, the real skinny: Everything in life is a 50/50 chance. Either you will, or you won't.

 

[Old Michael]

At the risk of offending, no debate is pointless, especially when it considers matters of life and death. But I'm not an admin.

And in that same vein, IMO, destiny/fate/predetermination is bullshit. Geez, that would suck. Why get out of bed?

To the question, is a wreck inevitable?

I'd reason that it's not inevitable, but for those who ride a motorcycle, it's probably good to fear that it might be.

And though it may well go without saying, ya gotta take the attitude on every ride, that a life-ending or life-changing event is a possibility. It almost makes it more exciting, don't you think? I'm guessing that's part of the appeal to a lot of folks.

As Madmike points out every time he posts, "Ride as if your life depended on it."

Speaking of hijacks and inevitability, it sure looks like the Superbowl is gonna be Patriots vs. Packers! ...If neither team wrecks before then.

 

[Zolton]

I totalled my '03 Suzuki SV650 when a minivan pulled out in front of me from an underground parking lot. I grabbed a mitt full of front brake and did a stoppie that turned into a crashie. Two weeks later I had a new '04 SV650. If you fall off the horse, you either get back on or sit in your living room and watch TV from then on. Your choice.

Today, while en route home from a 5 day road trip (fully loaded and a passenger on the back), another minivan tried to get me. He came across four lanes from the on ramp into my lane (real fast) and took the spot I was in. I saw this dick head coming and took the shoulder at 75 mph. After getting back into the passing lane I gave him a good long blast on my FJR horn and the "table for one" salute. At least the horns on these bikes are decent. You wouldn't even hear the SV horn at 75 mph.

Assume you are invisible to others and make eye contact with drivers when ever possible. At least then you know they are looking at you too.

 

[Joe2Lmaker]

It's looking pretty bleak.

Am I warmer with the vents in or out?

Is there a statistical loop hole in "inevitable"?

Is it ok for me to coast?

Do I really need to add gas 50 miles after I was suppose to run out?

Can every day be Friday?

Good night gang. I need some rest.

 

[Kevin Daly]

What do you guys think? Is it just a matter of time before each of us gets our clock cleaned?Inquiring minds want to know.

I don't think that it's inevitable, but I don't think it's entirely preventable either. I do all that I can reasonably do to avoid a wreck (MSG training, constant reading, practice on a closed course, etc) and make every effort to mitigate risk of damage to my body (armored gear, gloves, helmet, boots, etc) but none of that can guarantee that some blue-hair won't sneak up and plow me.

I try to have the mindset that it's always probable...and pay attention accordingly.

.02

Blah blah blah, Gun you cant have it both ways. You ride your probability of crashing is > 0. Don't get me wrong, I am ATGATT avoid riding at night in the rain or after around a football game at WVU. but really this is just avoiding the inevitable. EDIT: after reading some of your followup comments I would add... Any time p of x>0 it is inevitable given infinate time. So some people will live and die and not die on a bike but you cant live forever and not crash.

Depends a lot on your riding style too. For sports riders, and those that like to push the bike, it's probably inevitable. For a cruiser style rider, who never pushes the envelope and obeys all traffic rules, the odds are probably a lot better. You know what they say, there's 2 types of riders....

I dont buy this either Keith,

the Fact is that the profile of a biker "type" includes factors that increase AND decrease the probability distribution. EG you say style riders are safer, but they tend to ride more in town where left hand tirning cagers are more likely and they represent something like 2/3's of all bike crashes. They are more likely to ride in rallies which are typically traps for crashes.

-2c

A probability, not a certainty??I'm good to go...I paid my dues & joined the crash club Sept 1st, 2006. :blink:

Be aware that this doesnt change your odds except to say that you now have a track record

PS I would rather die now trying to live than live for a hundred years trying to not die!

 

[twowheelnut]

Okay, the real skinny: Everything in life is a 50/50 chance. Either you will, or you won't.

Maybe, maybe not.

 

[GunMD]

What do you guys think? Is it just a matter of time before each of us gets our clock cleaned?Inquiring minds want to know.

I don't think that it's inevitable, but I don't think it's entirely preventable either. I do all that I can reasonably do to avoid a wreck (MSG training, constant reading, practice on a closed course, etc) and make every effort to mitigate risk of damage to my body (armored gear, gloves, helmet, boots, etc) but none of that can guarantee that some blue-hair won't sneak up and plow me.

I try to have the mindset that it's always probable...and pay attention accordingly.

.02

Blah blah blah, Gun you cant have it both ways. You ride your probability of crashing is > 0. Don't get me wrong, I am ATGATT avoid riding at night in the rain or after around a football game at WVU. but really this is just avoiding the inevitable.

You seem to have slightly altered my quote...I have never attended MS[SIZE=14pt]G[/SIZE] training.

 

[Old Michael]

It's looking pretty bleak.
Am I warmer with the vents in or out?

Is there a statistical loop hole in "inevitable"?

Is it ok for me to coast?

Do I really need to add gas 50 miles after I was suppose to run out?

Can every day be Friday?

Good night gang. I need some rest.

I can't help myself.

It's so easy being jaded. Maybe there should be a test before one can post?

Maybe something about suppose versus supposed?

I'm thinking rest may not be enough brother. Maybe another firearm? Hell I dunno. But neither do you. B)

Does this ban me?

 

[Toecutter]

One of these days I'm going to figure out a method to display who particpates most per post in NEPRT. <_<

Free Willy? What the hell has that to do with the topic?

It could happen in a car too, couldn't it?
:blink:

Almost happened to me (in a car) this morning on my way to work. Came upon a fresh hit & run perped by a car that ran a stop sign. Luckily, I wasn't a couple of minutes earlier.

 

[DocDanDC]

I've already had my smash up derby on the ol' Kawi GPZ750. Rear-end style collision while minding my own business stopped for a traffic light. Maybe thats where my caution and alertness comes from on every ride. I guess that would be YES then for me.

 

[twowheelnut]

One of these days I'm going to figure out a method to display who particpates most per post in NEPRT. <_<

Free Willy? What the hell has that to do with the topic?

He wrote, 'most per post', not 'most posts per'. By that reasoning, I would be toward the very end of his descending list. , back at'tcha.

 

[JRO]

I don't think crashing is inevitable. If I did, I wouldn't ride. I'm 46, ride everyday, been riding since I was 8, and have never had a street crash. I'm not bragging that I'll never have a crash, because I could have one tomorrow, but I think it's quite possible to ride without ever having an accident. I try to stay within my limits and be prepared for dangerous situations, but am still aware of pure chance. My father was a State Medical Examiner, so I grew up with a real exposure to Providence. Sure, there are times when nothing can save somebody from an accident, but that fact doesn't keep me from riding. Just because it's true, doesn't mean it will happen to me - bad luck can get you, even if you're riding in an armored personell carrier.

I think you are safer riding in rural areas vs city traffic, and stats I've read seem to bear that out, as they do newbies vs. experienced riders. If congestion bothers you, move to the country. It won't absolve you from having to watch your ass, but it will reduce the number of incidents you have to deal with.

My worst fear is deer after dark. The vermin infest my area, and I've had a couple of good scares. I adjust my speed and attention accordingly, but a pal of mine hit a deer last week, and he was only going 35! Providence, again. Cell phone yappers are probably a more serious danger, and I despise them, but they don't invoke the same kind of anxiety.

I'm going to continue to ride, and I see no reason why 'it' has to happen to me. If you're worried that it eventually WILL happen to you, however, maybe you should reconsider riding. Worrying about WHEN you'll have YOUR accident, vs worrying about avoiding one, probably isn't a good thing. One thing's for certain - except for a very, very few, everyone gives up cycling, eventually. Concerns about 'accident inevitability' may mean it's time to start thinking about that decision.